Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / HLLY / earnings

CPS (49) STRT (67) MPAA (64) SRI (55) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Holley Inc. (HLLY) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±10.6% Move

$2.66 +0.76% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.66

Holley Inc. (HLLY) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 55/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 55/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $322.5M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.66 (-0.05%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 5.5% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 55/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-1.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HLLY)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (55/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY HLLY SCORES 55/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (31% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (22% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 18% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 54.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$2.49+0% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$2.49+0% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$2.49+6.8% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$2.66-0.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (47) → D+ (55)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the HLLY Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 55/100 (D+) score, HLLY faces multiple-compression risk if 16.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 40.9% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($2.63) or 200D SMA ($3.00) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($2.62) toward Bear Floor ($2.04).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HLLY• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “HLLY Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 55%NO 45%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±10.6% Swing Band

±$0.28 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

HLLY Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 55/100

Trailing EPS: $0.16 • YoY Revenue Growth: 1.9%

Model Bullish Setup (55/100)Model Risk Weight (45/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$613.5M	$19.2M	$33.9M	43.4%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$602.2M	-$23.2M	$40.1M	39.6%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$659.7M	$19.2M	$88.1M	43.4%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HLLY)

✓Walkthrough of HLLY's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

HLLY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -19.39%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $2.63H $2.71L $2.58C $2.66VOL 569.3K

RES: $3.57SUP: $2.23SMA50: $2.63SMA200: $3.00

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HLLY Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HLLY Butterfly Map → + Track HLLY →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

9.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +1.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HLLY today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HLLY. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HLLY today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HLLY)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #547 of 1011 ⚔️ CPS vs HLLY Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (HLLY vs. CPS, STRT, MPAA, SRI)

Industry: Auto Parts:O.E.M. (36 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Holley Inc. (HLLY) ranks #547 by composite RQD confidence (55/100, grade D+) and #639 by equity capitalization ($322.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, STRT leads on earnings valuation at 12.5x trailing P/E, while CPS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and 11.9% gross margin. STRT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with HLLY at 55/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
HLLY ACTIVE Holley Inc.	D+	55/100	16.8x	43.4%	7.0%	+0.76%	$322.5M	Benchmark Subject
CPS Cooper-Standard Holdings Inc.	D	49/100	—	11.9%	85.0%	-1.70%	$369.8M	/cps-vs-hlly →
STRT STRATTEC SECURITY CORPORATION	C+	67/100	12.5x	16.5%	15.2%	+0.63%	$256.6M	/strt-vs-hlly →
MPAA Motorcar Parts of America Inc.	C	64/100	16.3x	20.2%	21.6%	-3.29%	$195.0M	/mpaa-vs-hlly →
SRI Stoneridge Inc.	D+	55/100	—	19.9%	-24.1%	+0.83%	$174.0M	/sri-vs-hlly →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001822928

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Holley Inc. (HLLY) reported GAAP revenue of $613.5M (+1.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $602.2M , and -7.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $19.2M, operating cash flow of $46.2M, and free cash flow of $33.9M (-15.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, HLLY closed FY2025 with $1.16B in total assets against $516.1M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.32, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$613.5M	$19.2M	$46.2M	$33.9M	$1.16B	$516.1M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$602.2M	-$23.2M	$46.9M	$40.1M	$1.13B	$545.4M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$659.7M	$19.2M	$88.1M	$88.1M	—	—

3. HLLY Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HLLY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Holley Inc. (NYSE: HLLY) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 55/100 at a spot price of $2.66 (+0.76% 1D, market cap $322.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, HLLY ranks #547 in composite RQD confidence.

How does HLLY compare to CPS and STRT in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Auto Parts:O.E.M.), HLLY carries a Roarable D+ (55/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.8x, gross margin of 43.4%, and ROIC of 7.0%. By comparison, CPS (Cooper-Standard Holdings Inc.) holds a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 85.0%, cap $369.8M) and STRT (STRATTEC SECURITY CORPORATION) posts a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 12.5x, ROIC 15.2%, cap $256.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, STRT leads on earnings multiple (12.5x) while CPS leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HLLY?

Per HLLY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001822928), Holley Inc. generated $613.5M in revenue (+1.9% YoY), $19.2M in net income, and $33.9M in free cash flow against $1.16B in total assets and $516.1M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is HLLY trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HLLY last traded at $2.66 (+0.76% on volume of 568,233 shares), positioning the stock +1.14% above its 50-day simple moving average ($2.63) and -11.33% below its 200-day simple moving average ($3.00). Across its 52-week range of $2.25 to $4.48, HLLY sits at the 18.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 54.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.6% ($2.38 to $2.94).

HLLY Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is HLLY's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Holley Inc. (HLLY)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is HLLY stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±10.6% event move for HLLY, spanning a range between $2.38 and $2.94.

Direct Sub-Reports: HLLY RQD Cockpit HLLY 12M Forecast HLLY Earnings & Move HLLY Dividends & DRIP HLLY Insiders & 13F HLLY Whale Options HLLY Profit Sankey HLLY News & Why