Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / HGV / financials

OSW (75) SHO (67) PK (39) PENN (57) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$35.71 +0.51% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $35.67

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 56/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $2.78B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $35.67 (-0.10%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 5.1% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HGV)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (56/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY HGV SCORES 56/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+14/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 70% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-11 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$34.53+2.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$35.44+1.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$35.89-0.5% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$35.71-0.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (48) → D+ (56)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the HGV Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 56/100 (D+) score, HGV faces multiple-compression risk if 34.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($37.74) or 200D SMA ($44.60) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($35.39) toward Bear Floor ($27.60).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HGV• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “HGV Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 56%NO 44%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How HGV Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$230.0M (5.1% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $3.59B

FY24

Rev $4.46B

FY25

Rev $4.51B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$4.51B	52%	0%	$81.0M	$230.0M	6.3%
FY 2024	$4.46B	52%	0%	$47.0M	$267.0M	6.3%
FY 2023	$3.59B	52%	0%	$313.0M	$312.0M	6.3%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HGV)

✓Walkthrough of HGV's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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HGV // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -23.97%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $36.47H $38.58L $35.22C $35.71VOL 1.88M

RES: $52.63SUP: $32.02SMA50: $37.74SMA200: $44.60

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HGV Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HGV Butterfly Map → + Track HGV →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

26.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +1.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HGV today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HGV. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HGV today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HGV)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #507 of 1011 ⚔️ OSW vs HGV Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (HGV vs. OSW, SHO, PK, PENN)

Industry: Hotels/Resorts (35 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) ranks #507 by composite RQD confidence (56/100, grade D+) and #375 by equity capitalization ($2.78B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, HGV leads on earnings valuation at 34.3x trailing P/E, while OSW leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 10.6% ROIC and — gross margin. OSW currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 75/100 (B) compared with HGV at 56/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
HGV ACTIVE Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.	D+	56/100	34.3x	—	6.3%	+0.51%	$2.78B	Benchmark Subject
OSW OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited	B	75/100	42.7x	—	10.6%	+7.23%	$3.06B	/osw-vs-hgv →
SHO Sunstone Hotel Investors Inc. Sunstone Hotel Investors Inc.	C+	67/100	—	—	—	+1.41%	$2.41B	/sho-vs-hgv →
PK Park Hotels & Resorts Inc.	D-	39/100	—	—	-0.9%	+1.02%	$3.39B	/pk-vs-hgv →
PENN PENN Entertainment Inc.	D+	57/100	—	—	-13.3%	+4.14%	$2.06B	/penn-vs-hgv →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001674168

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) reported GAAP revenue of $4.51B (+1.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $4.46B , and +25.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $81.0M, operating cash flow of $300.0M, and free cash flow of $230.0M (-13.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, HGV closed FY2025 with $11.54B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$4.51B	$81.0M	$300.0M	$230.0M	$11.54B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$4.46B	$47.0M	$309.0M	$267.0M	$11.44B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$3.59B	$313.0M	$312.0M	$312.0M	—	—

3. HGV Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HGV stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (NYSE: HGV) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $35.71 (+0.51% 1D, market cap $2.78B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, HGV ranks #507 in composite RQD confidence.

How does HGV compare to OSW and SHO in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Hotels/Resorts), HGV carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 34.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 6.3%. By comparison, OSW (OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited) holds a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 42.7x, ROIC 10.6%, cap $3.06B) and SHO (Sunstone Hotel Investors Inc. Sunstone Hotel Investors Inc.) posts a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $2.41B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HGV leads on earnings multiple (34.3x) while OSW leads on capital efficiency (10.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HGV?

Per HGV's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001674168), Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. generated $4.51B in revenue (+1.1% YoY), $81.0M in net income, and $230.0M in free cash flow against $11.54B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is HGV trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HGV last traded at $35.71 (+0.51% on volume of 1,841,183 shares), positioning the stock -5.38% below its 50-day simple moving average ($37.74) and -19.93% below its 200-day simple moving average ($44.60). Across its 52-week range of $33.99 to $55.40, HGV sits at the 8.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 62.5 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.7% ($32.96 to $38.46).

HGV Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), HGV converted $4.5B of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $230.0M in free cash flow (5.1% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: HGV RQD Cockpit HGV 12M Forecast HGV Earnings & Move HGV Dividends & DRIP HGV Insiders & 13F HGV Whale Options HGV Profit Sankey HGV News & Why