Stock Ratings / Financials / HBNC / options

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Horizon Bancorp Inc. (HBNC) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$20.99 +1.45% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $21.00

Horizon Bancorp Inc. (HBNC) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 58/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 58/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.08B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $21.00 (+0.07%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 1.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 58/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.7% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HBNC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (58/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY HBNC SCORES 58/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (28% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 99% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 63.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (21% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±4.5% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 10 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$19.26+1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$19.46+4.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$20.37+3% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$20.99+0% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (50) → D+ (58)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the HBNC Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 58/100 (D+) score, HBNC faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($19.59) or 200D SMA ($18.70) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($20.99) toward Bear Floor ($16.37).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HBNC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “HBNC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 58%NO 42%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±4.5%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (HBNC)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for HBNC.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HBNC)

✓Walkthrough of HBNC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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HBNC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +15.97%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-10-30O $21.03H $21.03L $20.64C $20.99VOL 653.6K

RES: $19.26SUP: $18.24SMA50: $19.59SMA200: $18.70

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HBNC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HBNC Butterfly Map → + Track HBNC →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HBNC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HBNC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HBNC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HBNC)

Financials Rank #609 of 1096 ⚔️ UVSP vs HBNC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (HBNC vs. UVSP, CCNE, MBWM, MCBS)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Horizon Bancorp Inc. (HBNC) ranks #609 by composite RQD confidence (58/100, grade D+) and #535 by equity capitalization ($1.08B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MBWM leads on earnings valuation at 11.8x trailing P/E, while MCBS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.6% ROIC and — gross margin. CCNE currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with HBNC at 58/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
HBNC ACTIVE Horizon Bancorp Inc.	D+	58/100	—	—	-21.9%	+1.45%	$1.08B	Benchmark Subject
UVSP Univest Financial Corporation	C	62/100	12.0x	—	9.6%	-6.53%	$1.08B	/uvsp-vs-hbnc →
CCNE CNB Financial Corporation	C+	67/100	16.0x	—	7.6%	+0.56%	$1.05B	/ccne-vs-hbnc →
MBWM Mercantile Bank Corporation	D+	58/100	11.8x	—	12.2%	+0.53%	$1.05B	/mbwm-vs-hbnc →
MCBS MetroCity Bankshares Inc.	C	65/100	15.1x	—	12.6%	+0.59%	$1.04B	/mcbs-vs-hbnc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000706129

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Horizon Bancorp Inc. (HBNC) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$150.5M, operating cash flow of $79.2M, and free cash flow of $74.3M (+5684.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, HBNC closed FY2025 with $6.44B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	-$150.5M	$79.2M	$74.3M	$6.44B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$35.4M	$6.4M	$1.3M	$7.80B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$28.0M	$88.9M	$88.9M	—	—

3. HBNC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HBNC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Horizon Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: HBNC) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 58/100 at a spot price of $20.99 (+1.45% 1D, market cap $1.08B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, HBNC ranks #609 in composite RQD confidence.

How does HBNC compare to UVSP and CCNE in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), HBNC carries a Roarable D+ (58/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -21.9%. By comparison, UVSP (Univest Financial Corporation) holds a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 12.0x, ROIC 9.6%, cap $1.08B) and CCNE (CNB Financial Corporation) posts a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 16.0x, ROIC 7.6%, cap $1.05B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MBWM leads on earnings multiple (11.8x) while MCBS leads on capital efficiency (12.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HBNC?

Per HBNC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000706129), Horizon Bancorp Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$150.5M in net income, and $74.3M in free cash flow against $6.44B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is HBNC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HBNC last traded at $20.99 (+1.45% on volume of 498,653 shares), positioning the stock +7.15% above its 50-day simple moving average ($19.59) and +12.25% above its 200-day simple moving average ($18.70). Across its 52-week range of $15.43 to $21.07, HBNC sits at the 98.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 63.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.5% ($20.05 to $21.93).

HBNC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is HBNC's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for HBNC.

Direct Sub-Reports: HBNC RQD Cockpit HBNC 12M Forecast HBNC Earnings & Move HBNC Dividends & DRIP HBNC Insiders & 13F HBNC Whale Options HBNC Profit Sankey HBNC News & Why