MARKET WIREYahoo • 2d ago
Horizon: 2 Key Takeaways for Long-Term InvestorsA healthy loan yield cushion and 11.5% capital ratio give Horizon room to grow without sacrificing margin safety.
Why HBNC Stock advanced +1.45% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$20.99 +1.45% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $21.00
Horizon Bancorp Inc. (HBNC) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 58/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID
Cap $1.08B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $21.00 (+0.07%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 1.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 58/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.7% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HBNC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (58/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY HBNC SCORES 58/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (28% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 99% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 63.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (21% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±4.5% realized swing band)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)
Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 10 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C-$19.26+1% Next Q
50
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C-$19.46+4.7% Next Q
53
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C$20.37+3% Next Q
55
CurrentGrade D+$20.99+0% Hist 90D α
58
Trajectory: C- (50) → D+ (58)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the HBNC Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 58/100 (D+) score, HBNC faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($19.59) or 200D SMA ($18.70) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($20.99) toward Bear Floor ($16.37).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HBNC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “HBNC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why HBNC Stock advanced +1.45% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Horizon Bancorp Inc. (HBNC) advanced +1.45% to $20.99, trading at 99% of its 52-week range ($15.43 – $21.07). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-22% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 99% of its 52-week range ($15.43 – $21.07) with RSI-14 at 63.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±4.5% around $20.99 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D+ (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $74.3M annual free cash flow.
Live HBNC Headlines & Catalysts
CATALYSTSeekingAlpha • 3d ago
Reason For Optimism Remains At Horizon BancorpHorizon Bancorp remains a buy, supported by strong Q3 2026 results, robust profitability metrics, and a forward PE under 10. Read why HBNC stock is a buy.
CATALYSTBenzinga • 6d ago
Stephens & Co. Maintains Overweight on Horizon Bancorp, Raises Price Target to $24Stephens & Co. analyst Brandon Rud maintains Horizon Bancorp (NASDAQ:HBNC) with a Overweight and raises the price target from $23 to $24.
CATALYSTYahoo • 8d ago
Horizon Bancorp (HBNC) Stock Looks About Right As Its 148% Run ContinuesHorizon Bancorp shares have climbed strongly in recent years, which naturally raises a question for anyone looking at the stock today. Is the current price properly supported by the bank's earnings, or have expectations
MARKET WIREYahoo • 9d ago
Earnings Beat Could Be A Game Changer For Horizon Bancorp Stock (HBNC)Horizon Bancorp reported third quarter 2026 results with net interest income of US$65.16 million, net income of US$28.67 million and earnings of US$0.56 per share, compared with a loss in the same period last year. The b
MARKET WIREYahoo • 9d ago
Horizon Bancorp (HBNC) Swung To A Profit, Is A 13% Discount Warranted?Horizon Bancorp (HBNC) has released its third quarter results, showing a marked change. Net income reached US$28.67 million, compared with a net loss a year earlier. At a share price of US$19.99, Horizon Bancorp has seen
CATALYSTBenzinga • 9d ago
Piper Sandler Maintains Overweight on Horizon Bancorp, Raises Price Target to $25Piper Sandler analyst Nathan Race maintains Horizon Bancorp (NASDAQ:HBNC) with a Overweight and raises the price target from $24 to $25.
RISK WATCHYahoo • 9d ago
Horizon Bancorp (HBNC) Stock Price Reflects Q3 Earnings And A Valuation GapHorizon Bancorp walked into this Q3 2026 report carrying a reputation as a cut price regional lender, trading on a 9.6x P/E while peers sat higher. The fresh numbers told a sharper story. Basic earnings per share landed
CATALYSTYahoo • 10d ago
Horizon Bancorp (HBNC) Q3 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptNet income rose to $28.7 million as loan growth accelerated and costs stayed modest.
CATALYSTYahoo • 10d ago
What Horizon Bancorp (IN) (HBNC) Said on Its Q3 Earnings CallHorizon Bancorp (IN) (NASDAQ:HBNC) reported what management described as a productive third quarter of 2026, supported by mid-single-digit annualized loan and deposit growth, stable net interest margin, expanding capital
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HBNC)
- ✓Walkthrough of HBNC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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HBNC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +15.97%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-10-30O $21.03H $21.03L $20.64C $20.99VOL 653.6K
RES: $19.26SUP: $18.24SMA50: $19.59SMA200: $18.70
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
HBNC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HBNC today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HBNC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HBNC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HBNC)
Financials Rank #609 of 1096
⚔️ UVSP vs HBNC Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (HBNC vs. UVSP, CCNE, MBWM, MCBS)
Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Horizon Bancorp Inc. (HBNC) ranks #609 by composite RQD confidence (58/100, grade D+) and #535 by equity capitalization ($1.08B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MBWM leads on earnings valuation at 11.8x trailing P/E, while MCBS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.6% ROIC and — gross margin. CCNE currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with HBNC at 58/100 (D+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HBNC
ACTIVE
Horizon Bancorp Inc. | D+ | 58/100 | — | — | -21.9% | +1.45% | $1.08B | Benchmark Subject |
| UVSP Univest Financial Corporation | C | 62/100 | 12.0x | — | 9.6% | -6.53% | $1.08B | /uvsp-vs-hbnc → |
| CCNE CNB Financial Corporation | C+ | 67/100 | 16.0x | — | 7.6% | +0.56% | $1.05B | /ccne-vs-hbnc → |
| MBWM Mercantile Bank Corporation | D+ | 58/100 | 11.8x | — | 12.2% | +0.53% | $1.05B | /mbwm-vs-hbnc → |
| MCBS MetroCity Bankshares Inc. | C | 65/100 | 15.1x | — | 12.6% | +0.59% | $1.04B | /mcbs-vs-hbnc → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000706129In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Horizon Bancorp Inc. (HBNC) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$150.5M, operating cash flow of $79.2M, and free cash flow of $74.3M (+5684.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, HBNC closed FY2025 with $6.44B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | -$150.5M | $79.2M | $74.3M | $6.44B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $0 | $35.4M | $6.4M | $1.3M | $7.80B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $0 | $28.0M | $88.9M | $88.9M | — | — |
3. HBNC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs HBNC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Horizon Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: HBNC) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 58/100 at a spot price of $20.99 (+1.45% 1D, market cap $1.08B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, HBNC ranks #609 in composite RQD confidence.
How does HBNC compare to UVSP and CCNE in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), HBNC carries a Roarable D+ (58/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -21.9%. By comparison, UVSP (Univest Financial Corporation) holds a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 12.0x, ROIC 9.6%, cap $1.08B) and CCNE (CNB Financial Corporation) posts a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 16.0x, ROIC 7.6%, cap $1.05B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MBWM leads on earnings multiple (11.8x) while MCBS leads on capital efficiency (12.6% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HBNC?
Per HBNC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000706129), Horizon Bancorp Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$150.5M in net income, and $74.3M in free cash flow against $6.44B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is HBNC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
HBNC last traded at $20.99 (+1.45% on volume of 498,653 shares), positioning the stock +7.15% above its 50-day simple moving average ($19.59) and +12.25% above its 200-day simple moving average ($18.70). Across its 52-week range of $15.43 to $21.07, HBNC sits at the 98.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 63.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.5% ($20.05 to $21.93).
HBNC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is HBNC stock moving today?
Why HBNC Stock advanced +1.45% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-22% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.