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Business First Bancshares Inc. (BFST) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$31.77 +0.41% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $31.73

Business First Bancshares Inc. (BFST) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 69/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.03B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $31.73 (-0.12%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 2.3% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 57.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BFST)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (69/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY BFST SCORES 69/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 91% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 59.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-11 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$30.49+2.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$31.31+1.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$31.80-0.1% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$31.77+2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (61) → C+ (69)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the BFST Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 69/100 (C+) score, BFST faces multiple-compression risk if 11.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($31.10) or 200D SMA ($29.35) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($33.34) toward Bear Floor ($26.01).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BFST• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “BFST Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 69%NO 31%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM

59.430 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)

5 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE91% OF RANGE

L: $24$31.77H: $33

1. Money & Cash Health● HEALTHY

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Real cash coming in backs up reported profits (steady margins and healthy balance-sheet cushion).

Factor Grade: BRQD 15 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: CRQD 25 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● ALL CLEAR

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

Clean SEC fine-print check with low hidden accounting risk and favorable interest-rate weather.

Factor Grade: BRQD 29 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish on BFST

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BULLISH (75)

9.8% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 8.90% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 5/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BULLISH (68)

25/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 16/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like BFST

✓Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.
✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (BFST Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

BFST // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +16.03%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $32.12H $32.33L $31.66C $31.77VOL 171.8K

RES: $34.35SUP: $29.51SMA50: $31.10SMA200: $29.35

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BFST Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BFST Butterfly Map → + Track BFST →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

2.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BFST today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BFST. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BFST today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BFST)

Financials Rank #186 of 1096 ⚔️ MCBS vs BFST Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (BFST vs. MCBS, EGBN, MBWM, CCNE)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Business First Bancshares Inc. (BFST) ranks #186 by composite RQD confidence (69/100, grade C+) and #547 by equity capitalization ($1.03B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BFST leads on earnings valuation at 11.8x trailing P/E, while MCBS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.6% ROIC and — gross margin. BFST currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 69/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
BFST ACTIVE Business First Bancshares Inc.	C+	69/100	11.8x	—	9.8%	+0.41%	$1.03B	Benchmark Subject
MCBS MetroCity Bankshares Inc.	C	65/100	15.1x	—	12.6%	+0.59%	$1.04B	/mcbs-vs-bfst →
EGBN Eagle Bancorp Inc.	D	45/100	—	—	-12.2%	+1.30%	$1.02B	/egbn-vs-bfst →
MBWM Mercantile Bank Corporation	D+	58/100	11.8x	—	12.2%	+0.53%	$1.05B	/mbwm-vs-bfst →
CCNE CNB Financial Corporation	C+	67/100	16.0x	—	7.6%	+0.56%	$1.05B	/ccne-vs-bfst →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001624322

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Business First Bancshares Inc. (BFST) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $87.9M, operating cash flow of $92.1M, and free cash flow of $92.0M (+53.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, BFST closed FY2025 with $8.21B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$87.9M	$92.1M	$92.0M	$8.21B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$65.1M	$61.4M	$59.8M	$7.86B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$71.0M	$91.0M	$91.0M	—	—

3. BFST Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BFST stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Business First Bancshares Inc. (NASDAQ: BFST) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $31.77 (+0.41% 1D, market cap $1.03B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, BFST ranks #186 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BFST compare to MCBS and EGBN in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), BFST carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 11.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.8%. By comparison, MCBS (MetroCity Bankshares Inc.) holds a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 15.1x, ROIC 12.6%, cap $1.04B) and EGBN (Eagle Bancorp Inc.) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -12.2%, cap $1.02B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BFST leads on earnings multiple (11.8x) while MCBS leads on capital efficiency (12.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BFST?

Per BFST's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001624322), Business First Bancshares Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $87.9M in net income, and $92.0M in free cash flow against $8.21B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BFST trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BFST last traded at $31.77 (+0.41% on volume of 189,277 shares), positioning the stock +2.15% above its 50-day simple moving average ($31.10) and +8.25% above its 200-day simple moving average ($29.35). Across its 52-week range of $24.06 to $32.53, BFST sits at the 91.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 59.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.6% ($30.63 to $32.91).

BFST Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell BFST stock right now?

Business First Bancshares Inc. (BFST) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold — HOLD) with 69/100 RQD Confidence. Solid steady margins (10% return on capital), mixed timing at 12x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

What is BFST's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

BFST's 12-month base price target is $33.34 (range $26.01 to $39.34), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: BFST RQD Cockpit BFST 12M Forecast BFST Earnings & Move BFST Dividends & DRIP BFST Insiders & 13F BFST Whale Options BFST Profit Sankey BFST News & Why