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Univest Financial Corporation (UVSP) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$39.33 -6.53% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $38.79

Univest Financial Corporation (UVSP) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 62/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.08B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $38.79 (-1.37%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 30.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C- · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for UVSP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (62/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY UVSP SCORES 62/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 30.9% FCF Margin ($101.5M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B$40.90+0.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B-$41.25+2.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$42.14-6.7% Next Q

Current

Grade C$39.33+0.7% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B (70) → C (62)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the UVSP Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 62/100 (C) score, UVSP faces multiple-compression risk if 12.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($41.65) or 200D SMA ($39.27) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($40.04) toward Bear Floor ($31.23).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $UVSP• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “UVSP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 62%NO 38%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

3530 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)

6 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE64% OF RANGE

L: $28$39.33H: $45

1. Money & Cash Health● HEALTHY

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Real cash coming in backs up reported profits (steady margins and healthy balance-sheet cushion).

Factor Grade: BRQD 15 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 21 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: CRQD 26 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on UVSP

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BULLISH (75)

9.6% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 9.36% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 6/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

NEUTRAL (57)

21/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 13/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like UVSP

✓Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.
✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (UVSP Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

UVSP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +3.53%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-10-30O $39.83H $39.93L $39.19C $39.33VOL 349.3K

RES: $42.60SUP: $38.85SMA50: $41.65SMA200: $39.27

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

UVSP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 UVSP Butterfly Map → + Track UVSP →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

2.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +9.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on UVSP today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for UVSP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for UVSP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (UVSP)

Financials Rank #432 of 1096 ⚔️ HBNC vs UVSP Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (UVSP vs. HBNC, CCNE, MBWM, FSBC)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Univest Financial Corporation (UVSP) ranks #432 by composite RQD confidence (62/100, grade C) and #533 by equity capitalization ($1.08B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MBWM leads on earnings valuation at 11.8x trailing P/E, while FSBC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.8% ROIC and — gross margin. FSBC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with UVSP at 62/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
UVSP ACTIVE Univest Financial Corporation	C	62/100	12.0x	—	9.6%	-6.53%	$1.08B	Benchmark Subject
HBNC Horizon Bancorp Inc.	D+	58/100	—	—	-21.9%	+1.45%	$1.08B	/hbnc-vs-uvsp →
CCNE CNB Financial Corporation	C+	67/100	16.0x	—	7.6%	+0.56%	$1.05B	/ccne-vs-uvsp →
MBWM Mercantile Bank Corporation	D+	58/100	11.8x	—	12.2%	+0.53%	$1.05B	/mbwm-vs-uvsp →
FSBC Five Star Bancorp	C+	69/100	18.2x	—	13.8%	-0.17%	$1.12B	/fsbc-vs-uvsp →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000102212

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Univest Financial Corporation (UVSP) reported GAAP revenue of $328.1M (+9.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $299.2M , and +10.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $90.8M, operating cash flow of $101.5M, and free cash flow of $101.5M (+35.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, UVSP closed FY2025 with $8.44B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$328.1M	$90.8M	$101.5M	$101.5M	$8.44B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$299.2M	$75.9M	$75.1M	$75.1M	$8.13B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$296.8M	$71.1M	$89.7M	$89.7M	—	—

3. UVSP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is UVSP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Univest Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: UVSP) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $39.33 (-6.53% 1D, market cap $1.08B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, UVSP ranks #432 in composite RQD confidence.

How does UVSP compare to HBNC and CCNE in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), UVSP carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.6%. By comparison, HBNC (Horizon Bancorp Inc.) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -21.9%, cap $1.08B) and CCNE (CNB Financial Corporation) posts a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 16.0x, ROIC 7.6%, cap $1.05B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MBWM leads on earnings multiple (11.8x) while FSBC leads on capital efficiency (13.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UVSP?

Per UVSP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000102212), Univest Financial Corporation generated $328.1M in revenue (+9.6% YoY), $90.8M in net income, and $101.5M in free cash flow against $8.44B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is UVSP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

UVSP last traded at $39.33 (-6.53% on volume of 344,039 shares), positioning the stock -5.57% below its 50-day simple moving average ($41.65) and +0.15% above its 200-day simple moving average ($39.27). Across its 52-week range of $28.20 to $45.46, UVSP sits at the 64.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 35.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.0% ($37.76 to $40.90).

UVSP Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell UVSP stock right now?

Univest Financial Corporation (UVSP) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C (Hold — HOLD) with 62/100 RQD Confidence. Solid steady margins (10% return on capital), mixed timing at 12x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

What is UVSP's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

UVSP's 12-month base price target is $40.04 (range $31.23 to $47.73), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: UVSP RQD Cockpit UVSP 12M Forecast UVSP Earnings & Move UVSP Dividends & DRIP UVSP Insiders & 13F UVSP Whale Options UVSP Profit Sankey UVSP News & Why