MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why FBNC Stock advanced +1.37% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$64.23 +1.37% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $64.54
First Bancorp (FBNC) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 70/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 7% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.
ROARABLE B- • BUY
Cap $2.66B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $64.54 (+0.49%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 294.1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 70/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 15% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.1% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B-
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk B+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.4% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FBNC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (70/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY FBNC SCORES 70/100 (B-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+18/20 pts (26% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 87% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 54.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (21% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)
Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 9 pts on the table
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C+$59.17+2% Next Q
62
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C+$60.36+6.8% Next Q
65
Q3 (-1Q)Grade B-$64.44-0.3% Next Q
67
CurrentGrade B-$64.23+6.6% Hist 90D α
70
Trajectory: C+ (62) → B- (70)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the FBNC Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 70/100 (B-) score, FBNC faces multiple-compression risk if 23.9x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($62.72) or 200D SMA ($60.60) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($67.70) toward Bear Floor ($52.67).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FBNC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “FBNC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why FBNC Stock advanced +1.37% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
First Bancorp (FBNC) advanced +1.37% to $64.23, trading at 87% of its 52-week range ($47.83 – $66.78). High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 7% return on capital) with steady institutional support.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 87% of its 52-week range ($47.83 – $66.78) with RSI-14 at 54.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±5% around $64.23 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable B- (Buy) backed by 52% gross margin and $198.9M annual free cash flow.
Live FBNC Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (FBNC Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
FBNC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +11.24%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $64.78H $64.78L $63.43C $64.23VOL 176.0K
RES: $65.99SUP: $57.88SMA50: $62.72SMA200: $60.60
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
FBNC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
17.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. -3.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FBNC today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FBNC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FBNC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FBNC)
Financials Rank #144 of 1096
⚔️ FBK vs FBNC Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (FBNC vs. FBK, TRMK, TOWN, FRME)
Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, First Bancorp (FBNC) ranks #144 by composite RQD confidence (70/100, grade B-) and #385 by equity capitalization ($2.66B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FRME leads on earnings valuation at 11.4x trailing P/E, while TRMK leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 10.6% ROIC and — gross margin. FRME currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with FBNC at 70/100 (B-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FBNC
ACTIVE
First Bancorp | B- | 70/100 | 23.9x | — | 6.7% | +1.37% | $2.66B | Benchmark Subject |
| FBK FB Financial Corporation | C+ | 67/100 | 21.9x | — | 6.3% | +1.42% | $2.68B | /fbk-vs-fbnc → |
| TRMK Trustmark Corporation | B- | 70/100 | 11.6x | — | 10.6% | -0.36% | $2.60B | /trmk-vs-fbnc → |
| TOWN TowneBank | D | 51/100 | — | — | — | +1.00% | $2.72B | /town-vs-fbnc → |
| FRME First Merchants Corporation | B- | 71/100 | 11.4x | — | 9.2% | +1.06% | $2.58B | /frme-vs-fbnc → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000811589In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), First Bancorp (FBNC) reported GAAP revenue of $67.6M (-3.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $70.1M , and +106.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $111.0M, operating cash flow of $203.1M, and free cash flow of $198.9M (+15.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, FBNC closed FY2025 with $12.67B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $67.6M | $111.0M | $203.1M | $198.9M | $12.67B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $70.1M | $76.2M | $174.8M | $172.1M | $12.15B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $32.8M | $104.1M | $131.4M | $131.4M | — | — |
3. FBNC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs FBNC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, First Bancorp (NASDAQ: FBNC) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 70/100 at a spot price of $64.23 (+1.37% 1D, market cap $2.66B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 18/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, FBNC ranks #144 in composite RQD confidence.
How does FBNC compare to FBK and TRMK in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), FBNC carries a Roarable B- (70/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 23.9x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 6.7%. By comparison, FBK (FB Financial Corporation) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 21.9x, ROIC 6.3%, cap $2.68B) and TRMK (Trustmark Corporation) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 11.6x, ROIC 10.6%, cap $2.60B). Among the 5-stock peer group, FRME leads on earnings multiple (11.4x) while TRMK leads on capital efficiency (10.6% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FBNC?
Per FBNC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000811589), First Bancorp generated $67.6M in revenue (-3.6% YoY), $111.0M in net income, and $198.9M in free cash flow against $12.67B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is FBNC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
FBNC last traded at $64.23 (+1.37% on volume of 184,254 shares), positioning the stock +2.41% above its 50-day simple moving average ($62.72) and +5.99% above its 200-day simple moving average ($60.60). Across its 52-week range of $47.83 to $66.78, FBNC sits at the 86.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 54.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.0% ($61.02 to $67.44).
FBNC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is FBNC stock moving today?
Why FBNC Stock advanced +1.37% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 7% return on capital) with steady institutional support.