Stock Ratings / Financials / FBNC / forecast

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First Bancorp (FBNC) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$64.23 +1.37% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $64.54

First Bancorp (FBNC) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 70/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 7% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 70/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 15% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.1% hit rate) →

ROARABLE B- • BUY Cap $2.66B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $64.54 (+0.49%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 294.1% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 70/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 15% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.1% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B-

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk B+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FBNC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (70/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY FBNC SCORES 70/100 (B-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+18/20 pts (26% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 87% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 54.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 9 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$59.17+2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$60.36+6.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$64.44-0.3% Next Q

Current

Grade B-$64.23+6.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (62) → B- (70)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the FBNC Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 70/100 (B-) score, FBNC faces multiple-compression risk if 23.9x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($62.72) or 200D SMA ($60.60) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($67.70) toward Bear Floor ($52.67).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FBNC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “FBNC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 70%NO 30%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your FBNC Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $64.23: 155.7 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $52.67

$8,200

$-1,800 (-18.0%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $67.70

$10,540

+$540 (+5.4%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $79.89

$12,438

+$2,438 (+24.4%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (34 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 23● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	OUTPERFORM	$70	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	BUY	$75	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$60	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (FBNC Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

FBNC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +11.24%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $64.78H $64.78L $63.43C $64.23VOL 176.0K

RES: $65.99SUP: $57.88SMA50: $62.72SMA200: $60.60

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FBNC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 FBNC Butterfly Map → + Track FBNC →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

17.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -3.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FBNC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FBNC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FBNC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FBNC)

Financials Rank #144 of 1096 ⚔️ FBK vs FBNC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (FBNC vs. FBK, TRMK, TOWN, FRME)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, First Bancorp (FBNC) ranks #144 by composite RQD confidence (70/100, grade B-) and #385 by equity capitalization ($2.66B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FRME leads on earnings valuation at 11.4x trailing P/E, while TRMK leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 10.6% ROIC and — gross margin. FRME currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with FBNC at 70/100 (B-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
FBNC ACTIVE First Bancorp	B-	70/100	23.9x	—	6.7%	+1.37%	$2.66B	Benchmark Subject
FBK FB Financial Corporation	C+	67/100	21.9x	—	6.3%	+1.42%	$2.68B	/fbk-vs-fbnc →
TRMK Trustmark Corporation	B-	70/100	11.6x	—	10.6%	-0.36%	$2.60B	/trmk-vs-fbnc →
TOWN TowneBank	D	51/100	—	—	—	+1.00%	$2.72B	/town-vs-fbnc →
FRME First Merchants Corporation	B-	71/100	11.4x	—	9.2%	+1.06%	$2.58B	/frme-vs-fbnc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000811589

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), First Bancorp (FBNC) reported GAAP revenue of $67.6M (-3.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $70.1M , and +106.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $111.0M, operating cash flow of $203.1M, and free cash flow of $198.9M (+15.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, FBNC closed FY2025 with $12.67B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$67.6M	$111.0M	$203.1M	$198.9M	$12.67B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$70.1M	$76.2M	$174.8M	$172.1M	$12.15B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$32.8M	$104.1M	$131.4M	$131.4M	—	—

3. FBNC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FBNC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, First Bancorp (NASDAQ: FBNC) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 70/100 at a spot price of $64.23 (+1.37% 1D, market cap $2.66B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 18/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, FBNC ranks #144 in composite RQD confidence.

How does FBNC compare to FBK and TRMK in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), FBNC carries a Roarable B- (70/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 23.9x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 6.7%. By comparison, FBK (FB Financial Corporation) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 21.9x, ROIC 6.3%, cap $2.68B) and TRMK (Trustmark Corporation) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 11.6x, ROIC 10.6%, cap $2.60B). Among the 5-stock peer group, FRME leads on earnings multiple (11.4x) while TRMK leads on capital efficiency (10.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FBNC?

Per FBNC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000811589), First Bancorp generated $67.6M in revenue (-3.6% YoY), $111.0M in net income, and $198.9M in free cash flow against $12.67B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is FBNC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FBNC last traded at $64.23 (+1.37% on volume of 184,254 shares), positioning the stock +2.41% above its 50-day simple moving average ($62.72) and +5.99% above its 200-day simple moving average ($60.60). Across its 52-week range of $47.83 to $66.78, FBNC sits at the 86.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 54.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.0% ($61.02 to $67.44).

FBNC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is FBNC's 12-month stock price target?

First Bancorp (FBNC) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $67.7 (+5.4% from $64.23), with a bull-case target of $79.89 and a bear-case floor of $52.67.

Is FBNC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates FBNC B- (Buy — BUY) with an RQD Confidence score of 70/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: FBNC RQD Cockpit FBNC 12M Forecast FBNC Earnings & Move FBNC Dividends & DRIP FBNC Insiders & 13F FBNC Whale Options FBNC Profit Sankey FBNC News & Why