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NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$52.97 +1.92% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $53.28

NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 74/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 9% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 74/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 12% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.4% hit rate) →

ROARABLE B • BUY Cap $2.75B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $53.28 (+0.59%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 128.6% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 74/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 12% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.4% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk B+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+7.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NBTB)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (74/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY NBTB SCORES 74/100 (B) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+18/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 90% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 54.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk13/20 pts (-7 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 7 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B-$50.06+1.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B-$50.85+4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B$52.87+0.2% Next Q

Current

Grade B$52.97+7.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B- (66) → B (74)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the NBTB Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 74/100 (B) score, NBTB faces multiple-compression risk if 16.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($51.35) or 200D SMA ($47.70) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($56.78) toward Bear Floor ($43.44).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NBTB• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “NBTB Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 74%NO 26%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

54.330 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)

6 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE90% OF RANGE

L: $39$52.97H: $55

1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: B-RQD 14 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● BUYING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Hedge funds and options traders are leaning bullish, showing strong institutional appetite.

Factor Grade: BRQD 29 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● ALL CLEAR

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

Clean SEC fine-print check with low hidden accounting risk and favorable interest-rate weather.

Factor Grade: B+RQD 31 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish on NBTB

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BULLISH (70)

8.9% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 8.55% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 6/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BULLISH (78)

29/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 18/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like NBTB

✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (NBTB Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

NBTB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +21.24%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $53.11H $53.24L $52.10C $52.97VOL 284.0K

RES: $53.55SUP: $49.00SMA50: $51.35SMA200: $47.70

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NBTB Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NBTB Butterfly Map → + Track NBTB →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

9.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +10.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NBTB today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NBTB. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NBTB today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NBTB)

Financials Rank #56 of 1096 ⚔️ BOH vs NBTB Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (NBTB vs. BOH, TOWN, FBK, FBNC)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB) ranks #56 by composite RQD confidence (74/100, grade B) and #381 by equity capitalization ($2.75B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BOH leads on earnings valuation at 13.4x trailing P/E, while BOH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.1% ROIC and — gross margin. NBTB currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 74/100 (B).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
NBTB ACTIVE NBT Bancorp Inc.	B	74/100	16.3x	—	8.9%	+1.92%	$2.75B	Benchmark Subject
BOH Bank of Hawaii Corporation	B	72/100	13.4x	—	11.1%	+1.71%	$2.77B	/boh-vs-nbtb →
TOWN TowneBank	D	51/100	—	—	—	+1.00%	$2.72B	/town-vs-nbtb →
FBK FB Financial Corporation	C+	67/100	21.9x	—	6.3%	+1.42%	$2.68B	/fbk-vs-nbtb →
FBNC First Bancorp	B-	70/100	23.9x	—	6.7%	+1.37%	$2.66B	/fbnc-vs-nbtb →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000790359

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB) reported GAAP revenue of $183.0M (+10.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $165.7M , and +26.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $169.2M, operating cash flow of $235.2M, and free cash flow of $235.2M (+24.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, NBTB closed FY2025 with $16.00B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$183.0M	$169.2M	$235.2M	$235.2M	$16.00B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$165.7M	$140.6M	$188.6M	$188.6M	$13.79B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$144.7M	$118.8M	$157.5M	$157.5M	—	—

3. NBTB Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NBTB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, NBT Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: NBTB) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 74/100 at a spot price of $52.97 (+1.92% 1D, market cap $2.75B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 18/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, NBTB ranks #56 in composite RQD confidence.

How does NBTB compare to BOH and TOWN in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), NBTB carries a Roarable B (74/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 8.9%. By comparison, BOH (Bank of Hawaii Corporation) holds a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 13.4x, ROIC 11.1%, cap $2.77B) and TOWN (TowneBank) posts a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $2.72B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BOH leads on earnings multiple (13.4x) while BOH leads on capital efficiency (11.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NBTB?

Per NBTB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000790359), NBT Bancorp Inc. generated $183.0M in revenue (+10.4% YoY), $169.2M in net income, and $235.2M in free cash flow against $16.00B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NBTB trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NBTB last traded at $52.97 (+1.92% on volume of 325,018 shares), positioning the stock +3.15% above its 50-day simple moving average ($51.35) and +11.05% above its 200-day simple moving average ($47.70). Across its 52-week range of $39.45 to $54.50, NBTB sits at the 89.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 54.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.8% ($50.96 to $54.98).

NBTB Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell NBTB stock right now?

NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB) currently earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy — BUY) with 74/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 9% return on capital) with steady institutional support.

What is NBTB's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

NBTB's 12-month base price target is $56.78 (range $43.44 to $67), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: NBTB RQD Cockpit NBTB 12M Forecast NBTB Earnings & Move NBTB Dividends & DRIP NBTB Insiders & 13F NBTB Whale Options NBTB Profit Sankey NBTB News & Why