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Why ECPG Stock advanced +0.73% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$102.36 +0.73% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $102.74
Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 72/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 60% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.
ROARABLE B • BUY
Cap $2.17B
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief)
Is ECPG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Encore Capital Group Inc (NASDAQ: ECPG) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 72/100 at a spot price of $102.36 (+0.73% 1D, market cap $2.17B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, ECPG ranks #82 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does ECPG compare to AGM and TY in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Finance Companies), ECPG carries a Roarable B (72/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 60.4%. By comparison, AGM (Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 10.7x, ROIC 12.1%, cap $2.21B) and TY (Tri Continental Corporation) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.88B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ECPG leads on earnings multiple (8.4x) while ECPG leads on capital efficiency (60.4% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ECPG?
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Per ECPG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001084961), Encore Capital Group Inc generated $88.4M in revenue (+4.3% YoY), $257.0M in net income, and $126.9M in free cash flow against $5.34B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $102.74 (+0.37%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 143.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 72/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 13% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.7% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk C+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+6.3% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ECPG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (72/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ECPG SCORES 72/100 (B) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+16/20 pts (22% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±6.7% realized swing band)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (22% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk13/20 pts (-7 pt drag)
Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 7 pts from forensic ceiling
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C+$100.85-0.2% Next Q
64
Q2 (-2Q)Grade B-$100.62-1% Next Q
67
Q3 (-1Q)Grade B-$99.64+2.7% Next Q
69
CurrentGrade B$102.36+7% Hist 90D α
72
Trajectory: C+ (64) → B (72)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ECPG Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 72/100 (B) score, ECPG faces multiple-compression risk if 8.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($99.24) or 200D SMA ($83.41) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($108.81) toward Bear Floor ($83.94).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ECPG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ECPG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why ECPG Stock advanced +0.73% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG) advanced +0.73% to $102.36, trading at 94% of its 52-week range ($40.52 – $105.98). High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 60% return on capital) with steady institutional support.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 94% of its 52-week range ($40.52 – $105.98) with RSI-14 at 54.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±6.7% around $102.36 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable B (Buy) backed by 52% gross margin and $126.9M annual free cash flow.
Live ECPG Headlines & Catalysts
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Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (ECPG Tape Review)
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ECPG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +23.04%▲ ASCENDING TRIANGLE
2026-11-02O $101.6H $102.4L $101.6C $102.4VOL 203.2K
RES: $106.3SUP: $97.08SMA50: $99.24SMA200: $83.41
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
ECPG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
-4.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +4.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ECPG today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ECPG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ECPG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ECPG)
Financials Rank #82 of 1096
⚔️ AGM vs ECPG Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (ECPG vs. AGM, TY, BDJ, QQQX)
Industry: Finance Companies (27 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG) ranks #82 by composite RQD confidence (72/100, grade B) and #417 by equity capitalization ($2.17B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ECPG leads on earnings valuation at 8.4x trailing P/E, while ECPG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 60.4% ROIC and — gross margin. ECPG currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 72/100 (B).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECPG
ACTIVE
Encore Capital Group Inc | B | 72/100 | 8.4x | — | 60.4% | +0.73% | $2.17B | Benchmark Subject |
| AGM Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation | D+ | 57/100 | 10.7x | — | 12.1% | -0.09% | $2.21B | /agm-vs-ecpg → |
| TY Tri Continental Corporation | D | 50/100 | — | — | — | -0.06% | $1.88B | /ty-vs-ecpg → |
| BDJ Blackrock Enhanced Equity Dividend Trust | D+ | 54/100 | — | — | — | +1.25% | $1.72B | /bdj-vs-ecpg → |
| QQQX Nuveen NASDAQ 100 Dynamic Overwrite Fund | D+ | 52/100 | — | — | — | -0.39% | $1.51B | /qqqx-vs-ecpg → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001084961In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG) reported GAAP revenue of $88.4M (+4.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $84.8M , and +6.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $257.0M, operating cash flow of $153.2M, and free cash flow of $126.9M (-0.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, ECPG closed FY2025 with $5.34B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $88.4M | $257.0M | $153.2M | $126.9M | $5.34B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $84.8M | -$139.0M | $156.2M | $127.2M | $4.79B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $83.1M | -$206.0M | $153.0M | $153.0M | — | — |
3. ECPG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs ECPG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-02, Encore Capital Group Inc (NASDAQ: ECPG) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 72/100 at a spot price of $102.36 (+0.73% 1D, market cap $2.17B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, ECPG ranks #82 in composite RQD confidence.
How does ECPG compare to AGM and TY in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Finance Companies), ECPG carries a Roarable B (72/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 60.4%. By comparison, AGM (Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 10.7x, ROIC 12.1%, cap $2.21B) and TY (Tri Continental Corporation) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.88B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ECPG leads on earnings multiple (8.4x) while ECPG leads on capital efficiency (60.4% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ECPG?
Per ECPG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001084961), Encore Capital Group Inc generated $88.4M in revenue (+4.3% YoY), $257.0M in net income, and $126.9M in free cash flow against $5.34B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is ECPG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
ECPG last traded at $102.36 (+0.73% on volume of 203,189 shares), positioning the stock +3.14% above its 50-day simple moving average ($99.24) and +22.72% above its 200-day simple moving average ($83.41). Across its 52-week range of $40.52 to $105.98, ECPG sits at the 94.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 54.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.7% ($95.50 to $109.22).
ECPG Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is ECPG stock moving today?
Why ECPG Stock advanced +0.73% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 60% return on capital) with steady institutional support.