Stock Ratings / Financials / ECPG / earnings

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Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±7% Move

$102.36 +0.73% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $102.74

Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 73/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 60% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 73/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 13% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.0% hit rate) →

ROARABLE B • BUY Cap $2.17B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $102.74 (+0.37%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 143.6% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 73/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 13% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B- · Rk B+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+6.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ECPG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (73/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ECPG SCORES 73/100 (B) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+18/20 pts (25% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 94% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 49.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk13/20 pts (-7 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 7 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$99.77+1.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B-$101.68-3.9% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B$97.73+4.7% Next Q

Current

Grade B$102.36+7.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (65) → B (73)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ECPG Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 73/100 (B) score, ECPG faces multiple-compression risk if 8.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($99.21) or 200D SMA ($83.18) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($109.27) toward Bear Floor ($83.94).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ECPG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ECPG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 73%NO 27%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±7% Swing Band

±$7.17 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

ECPG Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 73/100

Trailing EPS: $12.12 • YoY Revenue Growth: 4.3%

Model Bullish Setup (73/100)Model Risk Weight (27/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$88.4M	$257.0M	$126.9M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$84.8M	-$139.0M	$127.2M	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$83.1M	-$206.0M	$153.0M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating ECPG & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on ECPG
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

ECPG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +23.67%▲ ASCENDING TRIANGLE

2026-10-30O $101.9H $102.4L $98.54C $102.4VOL 246.2K

RES: $106.3SUP: $96.88SMA50: $99.21SMA200: $83.18

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ECPG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ECPG Butterfly Map → + Track ECPG →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-4.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +4.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ECPG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ECPG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ECPG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ECPG)

Financials Rank #75 of 1096 ⚔️ AGM vs ECPG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (ECPG vs. AGM, TY, BDJ, QQQX)

Industry: Finance Companies (27 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG) ranks #75 by composite RQD confidence (73/100, grade B) and #417 by equity capitalization ($2.17B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ECPG leads on earnings valuation at 8.4x trailing P/E, while ECPG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 60.4% ROIC and — gross margin. ECPG currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 73/100 (B).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ECPG ACTIVE Encore Capital Group Inc	B	73/100	8.4x	—	60.4%	+0.73%	$2.17B	Benchmark Subject
AGM Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation	D+	56/100	10.7x	—	12.1%	-0.09%	$2.21B	/agm-vs-ecpg →
TY Tri Continental Corporation	D	51/100	—	—	—	-0.06%	$1.88B	/ty-vs-ecpg →
BDJ Blackrock Enhanced Equity Dividend Trust	D+	54/100	—	—	—	+1.25%	$1.72B	/bdj-vs-ecpg →
QQQX Nuveen NASDAQ 100 Dynamic Overwrite Fund	D+	57/100	—	—	—	-0.39%	$1.51B	/qqqx-vs-ecpg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001084961

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG) reported GAAP revenue of $88.4M (+4.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $84.8M , and +6.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $257.0M, operating cash flow of $153.2M, and free cash flow of $126.9M (-0.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, ECPG closed FY2025 with $5.34B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$88.4M	$257.0M	$153.2M	$126.9M	$5.34B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$84.8M	-$139.0M	$156.2M	$127.2M	$4.79B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$83.1M	-$206.0M	$153.0M	$153.0M	—	—

3. ECPG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ECPG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Encore Capital Group Inc (NASDAQ: ECPG) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 73/100 at a spot price of $102.36 (+0.73% 1D, market cap $2.17B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 18/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, ECPG ranks #75 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ECPG compare to AGM and TY in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Finance Companies), ECPG carries a Roarable B (73/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 60.4%. By comparison, AGM (Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 10.7x, ROIC 12.1%, cap $2.21B) and TY (Tri Continental Corporation) posts a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.88B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ECPG leads on earnings multiple (8.4x) while ECPG leads on capital efficiency (60.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ECPG?

Per ECPG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001084961), Encore Capital Group Inc generated $88.4M in revenue (+4.3% YoY), $257.0M in net income, and $126.9M in free cash flow against $5.34B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ECPG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ECPG last traded at $102.36 (+0.73% on volume of 203,189 shares), positioning the stock +3.18% above its 50-day simple moving average ($99.21) and +23.06% above its 200-day simple moving average ($83.18). Across its 52-week range of $41.06 to $105.98, ECPG sits at the 94.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 49.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.0% ($95.19 to $109.53).

ECPG Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is ECPG's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is ECPG stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±7% event move for ECPG, spanning a range between $95.19 and $109.53.

Direct Sub-Reports: ECPG RQD Cockpit ECPG 12M Forecast ECPG Earnings & Move ECPG Dividends & DRIP ECPG Insiders & 13F ECPG Whale Options ECPG Profit Sankey ECPG News & Why