Stock Ratings / Financials / ECPG / forecast

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Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$102.36 +0.73% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $102.74

Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 73/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 60% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 73/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 13% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.0% hit rate) →

ROARABLE B • BUY Cap $2.17B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $102.74 (+0.37%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 143.6% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 73/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 13% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B- · Rk B+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+6.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ECPG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (73/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ECPG SCORES 73/100 (B) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+18/20 pts (25% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 94% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 49.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk13/20 pts (-7 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 7 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$99.77+1.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B-$101.68-3.9% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B$97.73+4.7% Next Q

Current

Grade B$102.36+7.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (65) → B (73)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ECPG Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 73/100 (B) score, ECPG faces multiple-compression risk if 8.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($99.21) or 200D SMA ($83.18) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($109.27) toward Bear Floor ($83.94).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ECPG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ECPG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 73%NO 27%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your ECPG Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $102.36: 97.7 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $83.94

$8,200

$-1,800 (-18.0%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $109.27

$10,675

+$675 (+6.8%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $128.94

$12,597

+$2,597 (+26.0%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (34 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 23● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	OUTPERFORM	$114	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	BUY	$121	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$97	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (ECPG Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

ECPG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +23.67%▲ ASCENDING TRIANGLE

2026-10-30O $101.9H $102.4L $98.54C $102.4VOL 246.2K

RES: $106.3SUP: $96.88SMA50: $99.21SMA200: $83.18

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ECPG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ECPG Butterfly Map → + Track ECPG →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-4.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +4.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ECPG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ECPG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ECPG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ECPG)

Financials Rank #75 of 1096 ⚔️ AGM vs ECPG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (ECPG vs. AGM, TY, BDJ, QQQX)

Industry: Finance Companies (27 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG) ranks #75 by composite RQD confidence (73/100, grade B) and #417 by equity capitalization ($2.17B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ECPG leads on earnings valuation at 8.4x trailing P/E, while ECPG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 60.4% ROIC and — gross margin. ECPG currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 73/100 (B).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ECPG ACTIVE Encore Capital Group Inc	B	73/100	8.4x	—	60.4%	+0.73%	$2.17B	Benchmark Subject
AGM Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation	D+	56/100	10.7x	—	12.1%	-0.09%	$2.21B	/agm-vs-ecpg →
TY Tri Continental Corporation	D	51/100	—	—	—	-0.06%	$1.88B	/ty-vs-ecpg →
BDJ Blackrock Enhanced Equity Dividend Trust	D+	54/100	—	—	—	+1.25%	$1.72B	/bdj-vs-ecpg →
QQQX Nuveen NASDAQ 100 Dynamic Overwrite Fund	D+	57/100	—	—	—	-0.39%	$1.51B	/qqqx-vs-ecpg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001084961

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG) reported GAAP revenue of $88.4M (+4.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $84.8M , and +6.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $257.0M, operating cash flow of $153.2M, and free cash flow of $126.9M (-0.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, ECPG closed FY2025 with $5.34B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$88.4M	$257.0M	$153.2M	$126.9M	$5.34B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$84.8M	-$139.0M	$156.2M	$127.2M	$4.79B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$83.1M	-$206.0M	$153.0M	$153.0M	—	—

3. ECPG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ECPG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Encore Capital Group Inc (NASDAQ: ECPG) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 73/100 at a spot price of $102.36 (+0.73% 1D, market cap $2.17B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 18/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, ECPG ranks #75 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ECPG compare to AGM and TY in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Finance Companies), ECPG carries a Roarable B (73/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 60.4%. By comparison, AGM (Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 10.7x, ROIC 12.1%, cap $2.21B) and TY (Tri Continental Corporation) posts a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.88B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ECPG leads on earnings multiple (8.4x) while ECPG leads on capital efficiency (60.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ECPG?

Per ECPG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001084961), Encore Capital Group Inc generated $88.4M in revenue (+4.3% YoY), $257.0M in net income, and $126.9M in free cash flow against $5.34B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ECPG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ECPG last traded at $102.36 (+0.73% on volume of 203,189 shares), positioning the stock +3.18% above its 50-day simple moving average ($99.21) and +23.06% above its 200-day simple moving average ($83.18). Across its 52-week range of $41.06 to $105.98, ECPG sits at the 94.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 49.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.0% ($95.19 to $109.53).

ECPG Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is ECPG's 12-month stock price target?

Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $109.27 (+6.8% from $102.36), with a bull-case target of $128.94 and a bear-case floor of $83.94.

Is ECPG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates ECPG B (Buy — BUY) with an RQD Confidence score of 73/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: ECPG RQD Cockpit ECPG 12M Forecast ECPG Earnings & Move ECPG Dividends & DRIP ECPG Insiders & 13F ECPG Whale Options ECPG Profit Sankey ECPG News & Why