Stock Ratings / Financials / ECBK / forecast

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ECB Bancorp Inc. (ECBK) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$21.33 +1.23% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $21.34

ECB Bancorp Inc. (ECBK) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 68/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 68/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $186.4M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $21.34 (+0.03%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 900.6% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 68/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ECBK)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.1%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (68/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ECBK SCORES 68/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 92% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 57.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+14/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 70% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-8 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$21.12-7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$19.65+10.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$21.66-1.5% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$21.33+1.8% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (60) → C+ (68)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ECBK Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 68/100 (C+) score, ECBK faces multiple-compression risk if 24.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($20.74) or 200D SMA ($19.08) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($22.29) toward Bear Floor ($17.39).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ECBK• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ECBK Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 68%NO 32%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your ECBK Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $21.33: 468.8 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $17.39

$8,153

$-1,847 (-18.5%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $22.29

$10,450

+$450 (+4.5%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $26.30

$12,330

+$2,330 (+23.3%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$23	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	BUY	$25	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$20	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (ECBK Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

ECBK // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +18.76%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $21.42H $21.75L $21.33C $21.33VOL 7.3K

RES: $21.75SUP: $19.28SMA50: $20.74SMA200: $19.08

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ECBK Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ECBK Butterfly Map → + Track ECBK →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

17.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +3.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ECBK today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ECBK. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ECBK today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ECBK)

Financials Rank #233 of 1096 ⚔️ RBKB vs ECBK Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (ECBK vs. RBKB, HYNE, SRBK, FBLA)

Industry: Banks (24 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, ECB Bancorp Inc. (ECBK) ranks #233 by composite RQD confidence (68/100, grade C+) and #897 by equity capitalization ($186.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, RBKB leads on earnings valuation at 20.0x trailing P/E, while RBKB leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 7.3% ROIC and — gross margin. ECBK currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 68/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ECBK ACTIVE ECB Bancorp Inc.	C+	68/100	24.0x	—	4.5%	+1.23%	$186.4M	Benchmark Subject
RBKB Rhinebeck Bancorp Inc.	C-	61/100	20.0x	—	7.3%	+0.16%	$200.9M	/rbkb-vs-ecbk →
HYNE Hoyne Bancorp Inc.	D+	53/100	—	—	0.1%	+1.44%	$153.7M	/hyne-vs-ecbk →
SRBK SR Bancorp Inc.	D+	57/100	29.3x	—	2.7%	+0.64%	$150.5M	/srbk-vs-ecbk →
FBLA FB Bancorp Inc.	D	44/100	—	—	0.4%	-1.56%	$271.0M	/fbla-vs-ecbk →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001914605

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), ECB Bancorp Inc. (ECBK) reported GAAP revenue of $598.0K (+3.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $577.0K ) , GAAP net income of $7.8M, operating cash flow of $9.2M, and free cash flow of $9.0M (+46.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, ECBK closed FY2025 with $1.61B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$598.0K	$7.8M	$9.2M	$9.0M	$1.61B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$577.0K	$4.0M	$6.2M	$6.2M	$1.42B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$4.5M	$6.4M	$6.4M	—	—

3. ECBK Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ECBK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, ECB Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: ECBK) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 68/100 at a spot price of $21.33 (+1.23% 1D, market cap $186.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, ECBK ranks #233 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ECBK compare to RBKB and HYNE in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Banks), ECBK carries a Roarable C+ (68/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 24.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.5%. By comparison, RBKB (Rhinebeck Bancorp Inc.) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 20.0x, ROIC 7.3%, cap $200.9M) and HYNE (Hoyne Bancorp Inc.) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.1%, cap $153.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, RBKB leads on earnings multiple (20.0x) while RBKB leads on capital efficiency (7.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ECBK?

Per ECBK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001914605), ECB Bancorp Inc. generated $598.0K in revenue (+3.6% YoY), $7.8M in net income, and $9.0M in free cash flow against $1.61B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ECBK trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ECBK last traded at $21.33 (+1.23% on volume of 4,498 shares), positioning the stock +2.84% above its 50-day simple moving average ($20.74) and +11.79% above its 200-day simple moving average ($19.08). Across its 52-week range of $15.88 to $21.78, ECBK sits at the 92.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 57.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.1% ($20.03 to $22.63).

ECBK Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is ECBK's 12-month stock price target?

ECB Bancorp Inc. (ECBK) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $22.29 (+4.5% from $21.33), with a bull-case target of $26.3 and a bear-case floor of $17.39.

Is ECBK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates ECBK C+ (Hold — HOLD) with an RQD Confidence score of 68/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: ECBK RQD Cockpit ECBK 12M Forecast ECBK Earnings & Move ECBK Dividends & DRIP ECBK Insiders & 13F ECBK Whale Options ECBK Profit Sankey ECBK News & Why