MARKET WIREFintel • 5d ago
Ellington Credit Company Enters into $125,000,000 Equity Distribution AgreementWhy EARN Stock dropped -2.15% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$3.64 -2.15% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.62
Ellington Credit Company of (EARN) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 58/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID
Cap $136.7M
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief)
Is EARN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Ellington Credit Company of (NYSE: EARN) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 58/100 at a spot price of $3.64 (-2.15% 1D, market cap $136.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, EARN ranks #500 in composite RQD confidence.
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🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does EARN compare to NLOP and ONL in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), EARN carries a Roarable D+ (58/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 20.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 3.4%. By comparison, NLOP (Net Lease Office Properties of) holds a E grade (30/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $134.8M) and ONL (Orion Properties Inc.) posts a D- grade (42/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -22.4%, cap $132.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SEVN leads on earnings multiple (9.8x) while STRW leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for EARN?
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Per EARN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2024, filed 2024-12-31, CIK 0001560672), Ellington Credit Company of generated $0 in revenue, $6.6M in net income, and $9.1M in free cash flow against $824.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.62 (-0.58%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 0.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 58/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.7% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for EARN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (58/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY EARN SCORES 58/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (26% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (22% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C-$3.41+1.5% Next Q
50
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C-$3.46+4.9% Next Q
53
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C$3.63+0.3% Next Q
55
CurrentGrade D+$3.64+0% Hist 90D α
58
Trajectory: C- (50) → D+ (58)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the EARN Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 58/100 (D+) score, EARN faces multiple-compression risk if 20.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($3.98) or 200D SMA ($4.53) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($3.64) toward Bear Floor ($2.84).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $EARN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “EARN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why EARN Stock dropped -2.15% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Ellington Credit Company of (EARN) dropped -2.15% to $3.64, trading at 17% of its 52-week range ($3.22 – $5.72). Stretched risk/reward at 21x P/E (3% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 17% of its 52-week range ($3.22 – $5.72) with RSI-14 at 38.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±11% around $3.64 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D+ (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $9.1M annual free cash flow.
Live EARN Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREBenzinga • 13d ago
Piper Sandler Maintains Overweight on Ellington Credit, Lowers Price Target to $4.5Piper Sandler analyst Crispin Love maintains Ellington Credit (NYSE:EARN) with a Overweight and lowers the price target from $5 to $4.5.
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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring EARN)
- ✓Walkthrough of EARN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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EARN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -22.88%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $3.57H $3.64L $3.46C $3.64VOL 455.5K
RES: $4.16SUP: $3.06SMA50: $3.98SMA200: $4.53
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
EARN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
14.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on EARN today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for EARN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for EARN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (EARN)
Financials Rank #500 of 1096
⚔️ NLOP vs EARN Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (EARN vs. NLOP, ONL, SEVN, STRW)
Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ellington Credit Company of (EARN) ranks #500 by composite RQD confidence (58/100, grade D+) and #933 by equity capitalization ($136.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SEVN leads on earnings valuation at 9.8x trailing P/E, while STRW leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. STRW currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 63/100 (C) compared with EARN at 58/100 (D+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EARN
ACTIVE
Ellington Credit Company of | D+ | 58/100 | 20.8x | — | 3.4% | -2.15% | $136.7M | Benchmark Subject |
| NLOP Net Lease Office Properties of | E | 30/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -1.09% | $134.8M | /nlop-vs-earn → |
| ONL Orion Properties Inc. | D- | 42/100 | — | — | -22.4% | -4.92% | $132.3M | /onl-vs-earn → |
| SEVN Seven Hills Realty Trust | D | 48/100 | 9.8x | — | 4.7% | -0.45% | $150.9M | /sevn-vs-earn → |
| STRW Strawberry Fields REIT Inc. | C | 63/100 | 23.5x | — | 85.0% | +1.37% | $178.1M | /strw-vs-earn → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2024)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2024-12-31 • CIK 0001560672In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2024, filed 2024-12-31), Ellington Credit Company of (EARN) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2023 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $6.6M, operating cash flow of $9.1M, and free cash flow of $9.1M (+190.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, EARN closed FY2024 with $824.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $0 | $6.6M | $9.1M | $9.1M | $824.1M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $0 | $4.6M | -$10.0M | -$10.0M | — | — |
3. EARN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs EARN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-02, Ellington Credit Company of (NYSE: EARN) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 58/100 at a spot price of $3.64 (-2.15% 1D, market cap $136.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, EARN ranks #500 in composite RQD confidence.
How does EARN compare to NLOP and ONL in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), EARN carries a Roarable D+ (58/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 20.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 3.4%. By comparison, NLOP (Net Lease Office Properties of) holds a E grade (30/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $134.8M) and ONL (Orion Properties Inc.) posts a D- grade (42/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -22.4%, cap $132.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SEVN leads on earnings multiple (9.8x) while STRW leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for EARN?
Per EARN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2024, filed 2024-12-31, CIK 0001560672), Ellington Credit Company of generated $0 in revenue, $6.6M in net income, and $9.1M in free cash flow against $824.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is EARN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
EARN last traded at $3.64 (-2.15% on volume of 521,594 shares), positioning the stock -8.54% below its 50-day simple moving average ($3.98) and -19.65% below its 200-day simple moving average ($4.53). Across its 52-week range of $3.22 to $5.72, EARN sits at the 16.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 38.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.0% ($3.24 to $4.04).
EARN Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is EARN stock moving today?
Why EARN Stock dropped -2.15% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 21x P/E (3% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.