Stock Ratings / Financials / EARN / earnings

NLOP (30) ONL (42) SEVN (48) STRW (63) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Ellington Credit Company of (EARN) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±11% Move

$3.48 -4.40% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.45

Ellington Credit Company of (EARN) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 58/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 58/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $136.7M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on EARN Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is EARN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Ellington Credit Company of (NYSE: EARN) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 58/100 at a spot price of $3.48 (-4.40% 1D, market cap $136.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, EARN ranks #500 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does EARN compare to NLOP and ONL in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), EARN carries a Roarable D+ (58/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 20.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 3.4%. By comparison, NLOP (Net Lease Office Properties of) holds a E grade (30/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $134.8M) and ONL (Orion Properties Inc.) posts a D- grade (42/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -22.4%, cap $132.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SEVN leads on earnings multiple (9.8x) while STRW leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for EARN?

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Per EARN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2024, filed 2024-12-31, CIK 0001560672), Ellington Credit Company of generated $0 in revenue, $6.6M in net income, and $9.1M in free cash flow against $824.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.45 (-0.98%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 0.2% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 58/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.7% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for EARN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (58/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY EARN SCORES 58/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (22% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$3.41+1.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$3.46+4.9% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$3.63-4.1% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$3.48+0% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (50) → D+ (58)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the EARN Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 58/100 (D+) score, EARN faces multiple-compression risk if 20.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($3.98) or 200D SMA ($4.53) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($3.48) toward Bear Floor ($2.71).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $EARN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “EARN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 58%NO 42%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 29, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±11% Swing Band

±$0.38 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

EARN Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 58/100

Trailing EPS: $0.18 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (58/100)Model Risk Weight (42/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$0	$6.6M	$9.1M	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$0	$4.6M	-$10.0M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring EARN)

✓Walkthrough of EARN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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EARN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -26.27%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $3.57H $3.61L $3.46C $3.48VOL 455.5K

RES: $4.16SUP: $3.06SMA50: $3.98SMA200: $4.53

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

EARN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 EARN Butterfly Map → + Track EARN →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

14.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on EARN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for EARN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for EARN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (EARN)

Financials Rank #500 of 1096 ⚔️ NLOP vs EARN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (EARN vs. NLOP, ONL, SEVN, STRW)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ellington Credit Company of (EARN) ranks #500 by composite RQD confidence (58/100, grade D+) and #933 by equity capitalization ($136.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SEVN leads on earnings valuation at 9.8x trailing P/E, while STRW leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. STRW currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 63/100 (C) compared with EARN at 58/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
EARN ACTIVE Ellington Credit Company of	D+	58/100	20.8x	—	3.4%	-4.40%	$136.7M	Benchmark Subject
NLOP Net Lease Office Properties of	E	30/100	—	—	-35.0%	-1.54%	$134.8M	/nlop-vs-earn →
ONL Orion Properties Inc.	D-	42/100	—	—	-22.4%	+2.15%	$132.3M	/onl-vs-earn →
SEVN Seven Hills Realty Trust	D	48/100	9.8x	—	4.7%	-0.91%	$150.9M	/sevn-vs-earn →
STRW Strawberry Fields REIT Inc.	C	63/100	23.5x	—	85.0%	+0.87%	$178.1M	/strw-vs-earn →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2024)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2024-12-31 • CIK 0001560672

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2024, filed 2024-12-31), Ellington Credit Company of (EARN) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2023 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $6.6M, operating cash flow of $9.1M, and free cash flow of $9.1M (+190.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, EARN closed FY2024 with $824.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$6.6M	$9.1M	$9.1M	$824.1M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$4.6M	-$10.0M	-$10.0M	—	—

3. EARN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is EARN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does EARN compare to NLOP and ONL in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for EARN?

Where is EARN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

EARN last traded at $3.48 (-4.40% on volume of 455,532 shares), positioning the stock -12.56% below its 50-day simple moving average ($3.98) and -23.18% below its 200-day simple moving average ($4.53). Across its 52-week range of $3.22 to $5.72, EARN sits at the 10.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 38.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.0% ($3.10 to $3.86).

EARN Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is EARN's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Ellington Credit Company of (EARN)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 29, 2026.

How much is EARN stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±11% event move for EARN, spanning a range between $3.1 and $3.86.

Direct Sub-Reports: EARN RQD Cockpit EARN 12M Forecast EARN Earnings & Move EARN Dividends & DRIP EARN Insiders & 13F EARN Whale Options EARN Profit Sankey EARN News & Why