MARKET WIRESeekingAlpha • 13h ago
AI Cracks Fuel REIT ComebackThe Fed held rates steady following September's hike, with two dissenters favoring another increase. Check out the market update here.
Why CTO Stock surged +2.94% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$19.59 +2.94% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $19.66
CTO Realty Growth Inc. (CTO) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 62/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $759.3M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $19.66 (+0.34%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 43.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk B-
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.8% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CTO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (62/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY CTO SCORES 62/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (24% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 50% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 43.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (21% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)
Capital intensity & 22.7% operating margin leave 10 pts on the table
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade B$20.49+0.2% Next Q
70
Q2 (-2Q)Grade B-$20.54-3.7% Next Q
67
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C+$19.78-1% Next Q
65
CurrentGrade C$19.59+0.7% Hist 90D α
62
Trajectory: B (70) → C (62)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the CTO Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 62/100 (C) score, CTO faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($20.65) or 200D SMA ($20.24) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($19.94) toward Bear Floor ($15.55).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CTO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “CTO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why CTO Stock surged +2.94% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
CTO Realty Growth Inc. (CTO) surged +2.94% to $19.59, trading at 50% of its 52-week range ($16.5 – $22.71). Solid steady margins (5% return on capital), mixed timing at current multiples—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 50% of its 52-week range ($16.5 – $22.71) with RSI-14 at 43.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±4.9% around $19.59 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $64.6M annual free cash flow.
Live CTO Headlines & Catalysts
CATALYSTSeekingAlpha • 2d ago
CTO Realty Growth: The Near-8% Yield Is Safe Against Treasury ChaosCATALYSTSeekingAlpha • 3d ago
CTO Realty Growth, Inc. 2026 Q3 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation2026-10-29. The following slide deck was published by CTO Realty Growth, Inc.
CATALYSTFintel • 3d ago
CTO Realty Growth, Inc. Adds BofA Securities to $250,000,000 At-The-Market Common Stock Offering ProgramCATALYSTSeekingAlpha • 4d ago
CTO Realty Growth, Inc. (CTO) Q3 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptCATALYSTYahoo • 4d ago
CTO Realty: Q3 Earnings Snapshot(CTO) on Tuesday reported a key measure of profitability in its third quarter.The Winter Park, Florida-based real estate investment trust said it had funds from operations of $20.
CATALYSTYahoo • 4d ago
CTO Realty Growth (CTO) Q3 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptCore FFO surged 10.4% as Kansas City acquisitions and leasing gains drove growth.
CATALYSTYahoo • 4d ago
CTO Realty Growth Q3 Earnings Call HighlightsCTO Realty Growth (NYSE:CTO) reported higher third-quarter Core FFO and raised its full-year outlook after expanding leasing activity, completing investments and adding two Kansas City shopping centers to its portfolio.
CATALYSTYahoo • 4d ago
CTO Realty Growth, Inc. Q3 2026 Earnings Call SummaryMoby summary of CTO Realty Growth, Inc.'s Q3 2026 earnings call
CATALYSTBenzinga • 4d ago
CTO Realty Growth Q3 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptCTO Realty Growth (NYSE:CTO) reported third-quarter financial results on Wednesday. The transcript from the company’s third-quarter earnings call has been provided below.This transcript is brought to you by Benzinga
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (CTO Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
CTO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -3.26%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $19.76H $19.81L $19.51C $19.59VOL 415.4K
RES: $20.57SUP: $18.42SMA50: $20.65SMA200: $20.24
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
CTO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
21.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +20.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CTO today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CTO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CTO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CTO)
Financials Rank #433 of 1096
⚔️ INN vs CTO Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (CTO vs. INN, BFS, SAFE, CIM)
Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, CTO Realty Growth Inc. (CTO) ranks #433 by composite RQD confidence (62/100, grade C) and #609 by equity capitalization ($759.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SAFE leads on earnings valuation at 7.0x trailing P/E, while BFS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 51.6% ROIC and — gross margin. BFS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 76/100 (B+) compared with CTO at 62/100 (C).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTO
ACTIVE
CTO Realty Growth Inc. | C | 62/100 | — | — | 4.8% | +2.94% | $759.3M | Benchmark Subject |
| INN Summit Hotel Properties Inc. | D+ | 56/100 | — | — | 6.3% | +0.97% | $784.1M | /inn-vs-cto → |
| BFS Saul Centers Inc. | B+ | 76/100 | 19.4x | — | 51.6% | +1.56% | $725.9M | /bfs-vs-cto → |
| SAFE Safehold Inc. | C+ | 66/100 | 7.0x | — | 3.3% | +3.37% | $803.1M | /safe-vs-cto → |
| CIM Chimera Investment Corporation | D- | 40/100 | — | — | 9.0% | +1.80% | $709.9M | /cim-vs-cto → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000023795In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), CTO Realty Growth Inc. (CTO) reported GAAP revenue of $149.5M (+20.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $124.5M , and +37.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $2.6M, operating cash flow of $64.6M, and free cash flow of $64.6M (+7.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, CTO closed FY2025 with $1.26B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $149.5M | $2.6M | $64.6M | $64.6M | $1.26B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $124.5M | -$8.8M | $59.9M | $59.9M | $1.18B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $109.1M | $758.0K | $46.3M | $46.3M | — | — |
3. CTO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs CTO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, CTO Realty Growth Inc. (NYSE: CTO) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $19.59 (+2.94% 1D, market cap $759.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, CTO ranks #433 in composite RQD confidence.
How does CTO compare to INN and BFS in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), CTO carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.8%. By comparison, INN (Summit Hotel Properties Inc.) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 6.3%, cap $784.1M) and BFS (Saul Centers Inc.) posts a B+ grade (76/100 RQD, P/E 19.4x, ROIC 51.6%, cap $725.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SAFE leads on earnings multiple (7.0x) while BFS leads on capital efficiency (51.6% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CTO?
Per CTO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000023795), CTO Realty Growth Inc. generated $149.5M in revenue (+20.1% YoY), $2.6M in net income, and $64.6M in free cash flow against $1.26B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is CTO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
CTO last traded at $19.59 (+2.94% on volume of 589,585 shares), positioning the stock -5.13% below its 50-day simple moving average ($20.65) and -3.21% below its 200-day simple moving average ($20.24). Across its 52-week range of $16.50 to $22.71, CTO sits at the 49.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.9% ($18.63 to $20.55).
CTO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is CTO stock moving today?
Why CTO Stock surged +2.94% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid steady margins (5% return on capital), mixed timing at current multiples—hold if owned, no rush to chase.