CTO Realty Growth Inc. (CTO) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$19.59 +2.94% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $19.66

CTO Realty Growth Inc. (CTO) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 50/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $759.3M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on CTO Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is CTO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, CTO Realty Growth Inc. (NYSE: CTO) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $19.59 (+2.94% 1D, market cap $759.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, CTO ranks #675 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does CTO compare to INN and BFS in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), CTO carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.8%. By comparison, INN (Summit Hotel Properties Inc.) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 6.3%, cap $784.1M) and BFS (Saul Centers Inc.) posts a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 19.4x, ROIC 51.6%, cap $725.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SAFE leads on earnings multiple (7.0x) while BFS leads on capital efficiency (51.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CTO?
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Per CTO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000023795), CTO Realty Growth Inc. generated $149.5M in revenue (+20.1% YoY), $2.6M in net income, and $64.6M in free cash flow against $1.26B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $19.66 (+0.34%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 43.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510050
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D+
Cash (10)Whales (6)SEC (13)Macro (8)CEO (13)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.6% Base Target
$24 Bull$19 Base$15 Bear
📬 FREE CTO RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CTO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (50/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY CTO SCORES 50/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+13/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 65% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
58
Grade C$20.75-3.5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
55
Grade C$20.02-1.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
53
Grade C-$19.64-0.3% Next Q
Current
50
Grade D$19.59-1.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (58) → D (50)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a CTO Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While CTO currently carries a cautious 50/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($20.61) and Max Pain ($20.57) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $23.85.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CTO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “CTO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD
8.26% Total Yield
6.46% Cash ($1.27/yr) + 1.8% Buybacks
PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER
88/100 • FORTRESS PAYOUT
FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO
49.3% of FCF
8 consecutive years of payout growth
INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (19.3% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years → $58,399

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $4,824/yr
$11.9K
Yr 1
$14.2K
Yr 2
$17.0K
Yr 3
$20.3K
Yr 4
$24.2K
Yr 5
$28.8K
Yr 6
$34.4K
Yr 7
$41.0K
Yr 8
$49.0K
Yr 9
$58.4K
Yr 10
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CTO)

  • ✓Walkthrough of CTO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
CTO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -3.64%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $19.03H $19.59L $19.03C $19.59VOL 589.6K
RES: $20.54SUP: $18.39SMA50: $20.61SMA200: $20.24
$23.06$21.62$20.19$18.76$17.33RES $20.54SUP $18.39$19.592026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CTO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
21.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +20.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CTO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CTO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CTO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CTO)

Financials Rank #675 of 1096 ⚔️ INN vs CTO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (CTO vs. INN, BFS, SAFE, CIM)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, CTO Realty Growth Inc. (CTO) ranks #675 by composite RQD confidence (50/100, grade D) and #609 by equity capitalization ($759.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SAFE leads on earnings valuation at 7.0x trailing P/E, while BFS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 51.6% ROIC and — gross margin. BFS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 62/100 (C) compared with CTO at 50/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
CTO ACTIVE
CTO Realty Growth Inc.
D 50/100 — — 4.8% +2.94% $759.3M Benchmark Subject
INN
Summit Hotel Properties Inc.
C- 59/100 — — 6.3% +0.97% $784.1M /inn-vs-cto →
BFS
Saul Centers Inc.
C 62/100 19.4x — 51.6% +1.56% $725.9M /bfs-vs-cto →
SAFE
Safehold Inc.
D 51/100 7.0x — 3.3% +3.37% $803.1M /safe-vs-cto →
CIM
Chimera Investment Corporation
E 30/100 — — 9.0% +1.80% $709.9M /cim-vs-cto →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000023795

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), CTO Realty Growth Inc. (CTO) reported GAAP revenue of $149.5M (+20.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $124.5M , and +37.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $2.6M, operating cash flow of $64.6M, and free cash flow of $64.6M (+7.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, CTO closed FY2025 with $1.26B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $149.5M $2.6M $64.6M $64.6M $1.26B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $124.5M -$8.8M $59.9M $59.9M $1.18B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $109.1M $758.0K $46.3M $46.3M — —

3. CTO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CTO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, CTO Realty Growth Inc. (NYSE: CTO) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $19.59 (+2.94% 1D, market cap $759.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, CTO ranks #675 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CTO compare to INN and BFS in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), CTO carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.8%. By comparison, INN (Summit Hotel Properties Inc.) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 6.3%, cap $784.1M) and BFS (Saul Centers Inc.) posts a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 19.4x, ROIC 51.6%, cap $725.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SAFE leads on earnings multiple (7.0x) while BFS leads on capital efficiency (51.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CTO?

Per CTO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000023795), CTO Realty Growth Inc. generated $149.5M in revenue (+20.1% YoY), $2.6M in net income, and $64.6M in free cash flow against $1.26B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CTO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CTO last traded at $19.59 (+2.94% on volume of 589,585 shares), positioning the stock -4.95% below its 50-day simple moving average ($20.61) and -3.21% below its 200-day simple moving average ($20.24). Across its 52-week range of $16.50 to $22.71, CTO sits at the 49.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 42.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.1% ($18.59 to $20.59).

CTO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Does CTO pay a dividend and is it safe?

CTO Realty Growth Inc. (CTO) offers a 6.46% cash dividend yield ($1.27 annualized) and 8.26% total shareholder yield including buybacks. Roarable rates its payout coverage as FORTRESS PAYOUT.

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