Stock Ratings / Financials / CTO / financials

INN (56) BFS (76) SAFE (66) CIM (40) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

CTO Realty Growth Inc. (CTO) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$19.59 +2.94% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $19.66

CTO Realty Growth Inc. (CTO) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 62/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $759.3M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $19.66 (+0.34%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 43.2% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk B-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CTO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.9%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (62/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY CTO SCORES 62/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 50% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 43.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (21% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 22.7% operating margin leave 10 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B$20.49+0.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B-$20.54-3.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$19.78-1% Next Q

Current

Grade C$19.59+0.7% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B (70) → C (62)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the CTO Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 62/100 (C) score, CTO faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($20.65) or 200D SMA ($20.24) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($19.94) toward Bear Floor ($15.55).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CTO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “CTO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 62%NO 38%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How CTO Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$64.6M (43.2% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $109.1M

FY24

Rev $124.5M

FY25

Rev $149.5M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$149.5M	52%	22.7%	$2.6M	$64.6M	4.8%
FY 2024	$124.5M	52%	14.1%	-$8.8M	$59.9M	2.3%
FY 2023	$109.1M	52%	24.3%	$758.0K	$46.3M	4.8%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CTO)

✓Walkthrough of CTO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

CTO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -3.26%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $19.76H $19.81L $19.51C $19.59VOL 415.4K

RES: $20.57SUP: $18.42SMA50: $20.65SMA200: $20.24

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CTO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CTO Butterfly Map → + Track CTO →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

21.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +20.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CTO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CTO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CTO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CTO)

Financials Rank #433 of 1096 ⚔️ INN vs CTO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (CTO vs. INN, BFS, SAFE, CIM)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, CTO Realty Growth Inc. (CTO) ranks #433 by composite RQD confidence (62/100, grade C) and #609 by equity capitalization ($759.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SAFE leads on earnings valuation at 7.0x trailing P/E, while BFS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 51.6% ROIC and — gross margin. BFS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 76/100 (B+) compared with CTO at 62/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
CTO ACTIVE CTO Realty Growth Inc.	C	62/100	—	—	4.8%	+2.94%	$759.3M	Benchmark Subject
INN Summit Hotel Properties Inc.	D+	56/100	—	—	6.3%	+0.97%	$784.1M	/inn-vs-cto →
BFS Saul Centers Inc.	B+	76/100	19.4x	—	51.6%	+1.56%	$725.9M	/bfs-vs-cto →
SAFE Safehold Inc.	C+	66/100	7.0x	—	3.3%	+3.37%	$803.1M	/safe-vs-cto →
CIM Chimera Investment Corporation	D-	40/100	—	—	9.0%	+1.80%	$709.9M	/cim-vs-cto →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000023795

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), CTO Realty Growth Inc. (CTO) reported GAAP revenue of $149.5M (+20.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $124.5M , and +37.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $2.6M, operating cash flow of $64.6M, and free cash flow of $64.6M (+7.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, CTO closed FY2025 with $1.26B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$149.5M	$2.6M	$64.6M	$64.6M	$1.26B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$124.5M	-$8.8M	$59.9M	$59.9M	$1.18B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$109.1M	$758.0K	$46.3M	$46.3M	—	—

3. CTO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CTO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, CTO Realty Growth Inc. (NYSE: CTO) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $19.59 (+2.94% 1D, market cap $759.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, CTO ranks #433 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CTO compare to INN and BFS in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), CTO carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.8%. By comparison, INN (Summit Hotel Properties Inc.) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 6.3%, cap $784.1M) and BFS (Saul Centers Inc.) posts a B+ grade (76/100 RQD, P/E 19.4x, ROIC 51.6%, cap $725.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SAFE leads on earnings multiple (7.0x) while BFS leads on capital efficiency (51.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CTO?

Per CTO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000023795), CTO Realty Growth Inc. generated $149.5M in revenue (+20.1% YoY), $2.6M in net income, and $64.6M in free cash flow against $1.26B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CTO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CTO last traded at $19.59 (+2.94% on volume of 589,585 shares), positioning the stock -5.13% below its 50-day simple moving average ($20.65) and -3.21% below its 200-day simple moving average ($20.24). Across its 52-week range of $16.50 to $22.71, CTO sits at the 49.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.9% ($18.63 to $20.55).

CTO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is CTO Realty Growth Inc. (CTO)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), CTO converted $149.5M of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 22.7% operating margin, and $64.6M in free cash flow (43.2% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: CTO RQD Cockpit CTO 12M Forecast CTO Earnings & Move CTO Dividends & DRIP CTO Insiders & 13F CTO Whale Options CTO Profit Sankey CTO News & Why