Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / CTM / options

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Castellum Inc. (CTM) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

Q: What is CTM's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for CTM.

$0.51 -4.32% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.51

Castellum Inc. (CTM) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 36/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (36/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $47.9M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.51 (-0.97%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (36/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CTM)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (36/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY CTM SCORES 36/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+11/20 pts (31% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±10.8% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (31% of score)

Altman Z-Score 4.37 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$0.62-6.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$0.58-6.9% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$0.54-5.6% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$0.51-8.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (44) → D- (36)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a CTM Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While CTM currently carries a cautious 36/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($0.60) and Max Pain ($0.54) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $1.42.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CTM• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “CTM Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 36%NO 64%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±10.8%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (CTM)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for CTM.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CTM)

✓Walkthrough of CTM's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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CTM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -23.88%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-10-30O $0.50H $0.51L $0.48C $0.51VOL 497.9K

RES: $0.57SUP: $0.48SMA50: $0.60SMA200: $0.72

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CTM Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CTM Butterfly Map → + Track CTM →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +18.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CTM today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CTM. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CTM today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CTM)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #894 of 1011 ⚔️ BGSF vs CTM Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (CTM vs. BGSF, DLHC, STRR, ACCL)

Industry: Professional Services (48 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Castellum Inc. (CTM) ranks #894 by composite RQD confidence (36/100, grade D-) and #818 by equity capitalization ($47.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ACCL leads on earnings valuation at 35.4x trailing P/E, while DLHC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 5.8% ROIC and — gross margin. ACCL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 68/100 (C+) compared with CTM at 36/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
CTM ACTIVE Castellum Inc.	D-	36/100	—	36.6%	-6.2%	-4.32%	$47.9M	Benchmark Subject
BGSF BGSF Inc.	D+	54/100	—	35.7%	-24.2%	+0.94%	$45.8M	/bgsf-vs-ctm →
DLHC DLH Holdings Corp.	D	46/100	—	—	5.8%	-0.54%	$53.0M	/dlhc-vs-ctm →
STRR Star Equity Holdings Inc.	E	20/100	—	46.4%	-5.3%	-0.71%	$36.2M	/strr-vs-ctm →
ACCL Acco Group Holdings Limited (Class A)	C+	68/100	35.4x	44.1%	—	-0.38%	$36.1M	/accl-vs-ctm →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001877939

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Castellum Inc. (CTM) reported GAAP revenue of $52.9M (+18.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $44.8M , and +16.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$2.4M, operating cash flow of -$1.9M, and free cash flow of -$2.1M (-288.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, CTM closed FY2025 with $41.9M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.37, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$52.9M	-$2.4M	-$1.9M	-$2.1M	$41.9M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$44.8M	-$10.0M	$1.1M	$1.1M	$37.8M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$45.2M	-$17.8M	-$2.3M	-$2.3M	—	—

3. CTM Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CTM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Castellum Inc. (NYSE: CTM) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 36/100 at a spot price of $0.51 (-4.32% 1D, market cap $47.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, CTM ranks #894 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CTM compare to BGSF and DLHC in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Professional Services), CTM carries a Roarable D- (36/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 36.6%, and ROIC of -6.2%. By comparison, BGSF (BGSF Inc.) holds a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -24.2%, cap $45.8M) and DLHC (DLH Holdings Corp.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 5.8%, cap $53.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ACCL leads on earnings multiple (35.4x) while DLHC leads on capital efficiency (5.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CTM?

Per CTM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001877939), Castellum Inc. generated $52.9M in revenue (+18.1% YoY), -$2.4M in net income, and -$2.1M in free cash flow against $41.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CTM trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CTM last traded at $0.51 (-4.32% on volume of 191,521 shares), positioning the stock -15.00% below its 50-day simple moving average ($0.60) and -29.17% below its 200-day simple moving average ($0.72). Across its 52-week range of $0.48 to $1.35, CTM sits at the 3.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 30.1 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.8% ($1.00 to $0.57).