MARKET WIREReuters • 2h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
Why CTM Stock dropped -4.32% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$0.51 -4.32% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.51
Castellum Inc. (CTM) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 36/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT
Cap $47.9M
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief)
Is CTM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-01, Castellum Inc. (NYSE: CTM) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 36/100 at a spot price of $0.51 (-4.32% 1D, market cap $47.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, CTM ranks #894 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does CTM compare to BGSF and DLHC in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Professional Services), CTM carries a Roarable D- (36/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 36.6%, and ROIC of -6.2%. By comparison, BGSF (BGSF Inc.) holds a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -24.2%, cap $45.8M) and DLHC (DLH Holdings Corp.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 5.8%, cap $53.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ACCL leads on earnings multiple (35.4x) while DLHC leads on capital efficiency (5.8% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CTM?
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Per CTM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001877939), Castellum Inc. generated $52.9M in revenue (+18.1% YoY), -$2.4M in net income, and -$2.1M in free cash flow against $41.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.51 (-0.97%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (36/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9.8% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CTM)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (36/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY CTM SCORES 36/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+11/20 pts (31% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±10.8% realized swing band)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (31% of score)
Altman Z-Score 4.37 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)
Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade D$0.62-6.5% Next Q
44
Q2 (-2Q)Grade D$0.58-6.9% Next Q
41
Q3 (-1Q)Grade E$0.54-5.6% Next Q
39
CurrentGrade D-$0.51-8.3% Hist 90D α
36
Trajectory: D (44) → D- (36)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a CTM Turnaround Squeeze
While CTM currently carries a cautious 36/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($0.60) and Max Pain ($0.54) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $1.42.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CTM• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “CTM Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why CTM Stock dropped -4.32% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Castellum Inc. (CTM) dropped -4.32% to $0.51, trading at 3% of its 52-week range ($0.48 – $1.35). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-6% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 3% of its 52-week range ($0.48 – $1.35) with RSI-14 at 30.1 (OVERSOLD (<32)).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±10.8% around $0.51 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 36.6% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live CTM Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREReuters • 2h ago
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MARKET WIREReuters • 4h ago
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MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
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MARKET WIRECNBC • 7h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
MARKET WIRECNBC • 8h ago
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RISK WATCHReuters • 9h ago
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MARKET WIREReuters • 11h ago
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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CTM)
- ✓Walkthrough of CTM's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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CTM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -23.88%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-10-30O $0.50H $0.51L $0.48C $0.51VOL 497.9K
RES: $0.57SUP: $0.48SMA50: $0.60SMA200: $0.72
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
CTM Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +18.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CTM today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CTM. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CTM today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CTM)
Consumer Discretionary Rank #894 of 1011
⚔️ BGSF vs CTM Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (CTM vs. BGSF, DLHC, STRR, ACCL)
Industry: Professional Services (48 Tracked Issuers)Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Castellum Inc. (CTM) ranks #894 by composite RQD confidence (36/100, grade D-) and #818 by equity capitalization ($47.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ACCL leads on earnings valuation at 35.4x trailing P/E, while DLHC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 5.8% ROIC and — gross margin. ACCL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 68/100 (C+) compared with CTM at 36/100 (D-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTM
ACTIVE
Castellum Inc. | D- | 36/100 | — | 36.6% | -6.2% | -4.32% | $47.9M | Benchmark Subject |
| BGSF BGSF Inc. | D+ | 54/100 | — | 35.7% | -24.2% | +0.94% | $45.8M | /bgsf-vs-ctm → |
| DLHC DLH Holdings Corp. | D | 46/100 | — | — | 5.8% | -0.54% | $53.0M | /dlhc-vs-ctm → |
| STRR Star Equity Holdings Inc. | E | 20/100 | — | 46.4% | -5.3% | -0.71% | $36.2M | /strr-vs-ctm → |
| ACCL Acco Group Holdings Limited (Class A) | C+ | 68/100 | 35.4x | 44.1% | — | -0.38% | $36.1M | /accl-vs-ctm → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001877939In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Castellum Inc. (CTM) reported GAAP revenue of $52.9M (+18.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $44.8M , and +16.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$2.4M, operating cash flow of -$1.9M, and free cash flow of -$2.1M (-288.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, CTM closed FY2025 with $41.9M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.37, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $52.9M | -$2.4M | -$1.9M | -$2.1M | $41.9M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $44.8M | -$10.0M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $37.8M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $45.2M | -$17.8M | -$2.3M | -$2.3M | — | — |
3. CTM Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs CTM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Castellum Inc. (NYSE: CTM) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 36/100 at a spot price of $0.51 (-4.32% 1D, market cap $47.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, CTM ranks #894 in composite RQD confidence.
How does CTM compare to BGSF and DLHC in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Professional Services), CTM carries a Roarable D- (36/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 36.6%, and ROIC of -6.2%. By comparison, BGSF (BGSF Inc.) holds a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -24.2%, cap $45.8M) and DLHC (DLH Holdings Corp.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 5.8%, cap $53.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ACCL leads on earnings multiple (35.4x) while DLHC leads on capital efficiency (5.8% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CTM?
Per CTM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001877939), Castellum Inc. generated $52.9M in revenue (+18.1% YoY), -$2.4M in net income, and -$2.1M in free cash flow against $41.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is CTM trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
CTM last traded at $0.51 (-4.32% on volume of 191,521 shares), positioning the stock -15.00% below its 50-day simple moving average ($0.60) and -29.17% below its 200-day simple moving average ($0.72). Across its 52-week range of $0.48 to $1.35, CTM sits at the 3.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 30.1 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.8% ($1.00 to $0.57).
CTM Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is CTM stock moving today?
Why CTM Stock dropped -4.32% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-6% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.