Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / COTY

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Coty Inc. (Class A) (COTY) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$3.35 -0.30% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.34

Coty Inc. (Class A) (COTY) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 50/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $2.95B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.34 (-0.24%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 8.4% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for COTY)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.9%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (50/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY COTY SCORES 50/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (30% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 65% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 73.4 (OVERBOUGHT (>70))

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+11/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 55% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 14 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$2.85+12.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$3.20+0.9% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$3.23+3.7% Next Q

Current

Grade D$3.35-1.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (42) → D (50)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a COTY Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While COTY currently carries a cautious 50/100 (D) rating due to SEC 10-K Forensic Risk (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.85) and Max Pain ($3.52) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $4.37.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $COTY• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “COTY Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 28, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 50%NO 50%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMOVERBOUGHT (>70)

73.430 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDDISTRESS RISK (<1.8)

0.20>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)

5 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE65% OF RANGE

L: $2$3.35H: $4

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: DRQD 9 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: DRQD 20 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 21 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on COTY

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (45)

3.1% ROIC with 64.8% gross margin and 16.70% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (30)

Altman-Z 0.20 and Piotroski 5/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

NEUTRAL (58)

20/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 15/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like COTY

✓Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring COTY)

✓Walkthrough of COTY's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

COTY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +36.18%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $3.39H $3.44L $3.30C $3.35VOL 4.65M

RES: $3.90SUP: $2.69SMA50: $2.85SMA200: $2.53

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

COTY Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 COTY Butterfly Map → + Track COTY →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

21.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -3.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on COTY today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for COTY. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for COTY today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (COTY)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #634 of 1011 ⚔️ IPAR vs COTY Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (COTY vs. IPAR, SCL, EPC, ELF)

Industry: Package Goods/Cosmetics (23 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Coty Inc. (Class A) (COTY) ranks #634 by composite RQD confidence (50/100, grade D) and #365 by equity capitalization ($2.95B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, IPAR leads on earnings valuation at 17.8x trailing P/E, while IPAR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 21.3% ROIC and 63.6% gross margin. IPAR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 81/100 (A-) compared with COTY at 50/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
COTY ACTIVE Coty Inc. (Class A)	D	50/100	—	64.8%	3.1%	-0.30%	$2.95B	Benchmark Subject
IPAR Interparfums Inc.	A-	81/100	17.8x	63.6%	21.3%	+1.10%	$3.70B	/ipar-vs-coty →
SCL Stepan Company	D+	55/100	33.9x	11.6%	4.3%	+2.31%	$1.59B	/scl-vs-coty →
EPC Edgewell Personal Care Company	C-	60/100	51.8x	41.6%	2.5%	+3.25%	$1.32B	/epc-vs-coty →
ELF e.l.f. Beauty Inc.	C+	69/100	—	70.7%	4.0%	-2.13%	$6.66B	/elf-vs-coty →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-06-30 • CIK 0001024305

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30), Coty Inc. (Class A) (COTY) reported GAAP revenue of $5.89B (-3.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $6.12B , and +6.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$381.1M, operating cash flow of $492.6M, and free cash flow of $492.6M (-19.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, COTY closed FY2025 with $11.08B in total assets against $2.99B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-06-30	$5.89B	-$381.1M	$492.6M	$492.6M	$11.08B	$2.99B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-06-30	$6.12B	$76.2M	$614.6M	$614.6M	$11.72B	$3.39B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-06-30	$5.55B	$495.0M	$625.7M	$625.7M	—	—

3. COTY Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is COTY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Coty Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: COTY) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $3.35 (-0.30% 1D, market cap $2.95B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 6/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, COTY ranks #634 in composite RQD confidence.

How does COTY compare to IPAR and SCL in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Package Goods/Cosmetics), COTY carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 64.8%, and ROIC of 3.1%. By comparison, IPAR (Interparfums Inc.) holds a A- grade (81/100 RQD, P/E 17.8x, ROIC 21.3%, cap $3.70B) and SCL (Stepan Company) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 33.9x, ROIC 4.3%, cap $1.59B). Among the 5-stock peer group, IPAR leads on earnings multiple (17.8x) while IPAR leads on capital efficiency (21.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for COTY?

Per COTY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30, CIK 0001024305), Coty Inc. (Class A) generated $5.89B in revenue (-3.7% YoY), -$381.1M in net income, and $492.6M in free cash flow against $11.08B in total assets and $2.99B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is COTY trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

COTY last traded at $3.35 (-0.30% on volume of 3,525,037 shares), positioning the stock +17.54% above its 50-day simple moving average ($2.85) and +32.41% above its 200-day simple moving average ($2.53). Across its 52-week range of $1.82 to $4.16, COTY sits at the 65.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 73.4 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.9% ($3.05 to $3.65).

COTY Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell COTY stock right now?

Coty Inc. (Class A) (COTY) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D (Sell — SELL) with 50/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (3% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is COTY's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

COTY's 12-month base price target is $3.23 (range $2.52 to $4.37), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: COTY RQD Cockpit COTY 12M Forecast COTY Earnings & Move COTY Dividends & DRIP COTY Insiders & 13F COTY Whale Options COTY Profit Sankey COTY News & Why