Stock Ratings / Health Care / COLL / options

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Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc. (COLL) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$24.03 +3.44% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $24.24

Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc. (COLL) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 72/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (59% profit margin, 85% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 72/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 13% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.7% hit rate) →

ROARABLE B • BUY Cap $782.3M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $24.24 (+0.86%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 16/20 (B+) • 42% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 72/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 13% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.7% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk C+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+6.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for COLL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.9%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (72/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY COLL SCORES 72/100 (B) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+16/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 42% FCF Margin ($327.6M FCF) & 59.3% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (21% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 9% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 56.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 8 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$22.09+5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B-$23.19-1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$22.96+4.7% Next Q

Current

Grade B$24.03+7% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (64) → B (72)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the COLL Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 72/100 (B) score, COLL faces multiple-compression risk if 12.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 56.8% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($23.30) or 200D SMA ($33.24) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($25.54) toward Bear Floor ($19.70).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $COLL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “COLL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 72%NO 28%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±6.9%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (COLL)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for COLL.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating COLL & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on COLL
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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COLL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -28.76%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $24.28H $24.50L $23.66C $24.03VOL 401.9K

RES: $34.26SUP: $16.22SMA50: $23.30SMA200: $33.24

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

COLL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 COLL Butterfly Map → + Track COLL →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

3.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +23.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on COLL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for COLL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for COLL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (COLL)

Health Care Rank #76 of 1016 ⚔️ HELP vs COLL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (COLL vs. HELP, AVBP, ARDX, ANNX)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc. (COLL) ranks #76 by composite RQD confidence (72/100, grade B) and #389 by equity capitalization ($782.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, COLL leads on earnings valuation at 12.4x trailing P/E, while COLL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and 59.3% gross margin. COLL currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 72/100 (B).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
COLL ACTIVE Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc.	B	72/100	12.4x	59.3%	85.0%	+3.44%	$782.3M	Benchmark Subject
HELP Helus Pharma Inc.	D	49/100	—	—	—	-1.83%	$782.5M	/help-vs-coll →
AVBP ArriVent BioPharma Inc.	D-	35/100	—	—	-35.0%	+1.40%	$786.5M	/avbp-vs-coll →
ARDX Ardelyx Inc.	D-	35/100	—	90.3%	-32.7%	0.00%	$772.5M	/ardx-vs-coll →
ANNX Annexon Inc.	D-	40/100	—	—	-35.0%	-0.74%	$760.2M	/annx-vs-coll →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001267565

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc. (COLL) reported GAAP revenue of $780.6M (+23.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $631.4M , and +37.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $63.0M, operating cash flow of $329.3M, and free cash flow of $327.6M (+61.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, COLL closed FY2025 with $1.66B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.27, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$780.6M	$63.0M	$329.3M	$327.6M	$1.66B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$631.4M	$69.0M	$205.0M	$203.3M	$1.66B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$566.8M	$48.0M	$274.7M	$274.7M	—	—

3. COLL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is COLL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc. (NASDAQ: COLL) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 72/100 at a spot price of $24.03 (+3.44% 1D, market cap $782.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, COLL ranks #76 in composite RQD confidence.

How does COLL compare to HELP and AVBP in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), COLL carries a Roarable B (72/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.4x, gross margin of 59.3%, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, HELP (Helus Pharma Inc.) holds a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $782.5M) and AVBP (ArriVent BioPharma Inc.) posts a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $786.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, COLL leads on earnings multiple (12.4x) while COLL leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for COLL?

Per COLL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001267565), Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc. generated $780.6M in revenue (+23.6% YoY), $63.0M in net income, and $327.6M in free cash flow against $1.66B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (59% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is COLL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

COLL last traded at $24.03 (+3.44% on volume of 656,483 shares), positioning the stock +3.13% above its 50-day simple moving average ($23.30) and -27.71% below its 200-day simple moving average ($33.24). Across its 52-week range of $21.43 to $50.79, COLL sits at the 8.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 56.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.9% ($22.37 to $25.69).

COLL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is COLL's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for COLL.

Direct Sub-Reports: COLL RQD Cockpit COLL 12M Forecast COLL Earnings & Move COLL Dividends & DRIP COLL Insiders & 13F COLL Whale Options COLL Profit Sankey COLL News & Why