Stock Ratings / Health Care / COLL / financials

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Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc. (COLL) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$23.80 -0.96% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $23.71

Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc. (COLL) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 59/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $782.3M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on COLL Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is COLL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc. (NASDAQ: COLL) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $23.80 (-0.96% 1D, market cap $782.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, COLL ranks #187 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does COLL compare to HELP and AVBP in the Health Care sector?

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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), COLL carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.4x, gross margin of 59.3%, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, HELP (Helus Pharma Inc.) holds a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $782.5M) and AVBP (ArriVent BioPharma Inc.) posts a E grade (29/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $786.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, COLL leads on earnings multiple (12.4x) while COLL leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for COLL?

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Per COLL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001267565), Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc. generated $780.6M in revenue (+23.6% YoY), $63.0M in net income, and $327.6M in free cash flow against $1.66B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (59% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $23.71 (-0.36%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 16/20 (B+) • 42% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for COLL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (59/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY COLL SCORES 59/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+16/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 42% FCF Margin ($327.6M FCF) & 59.3% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (59) create a -12 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$22.05+4.4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$23.01+0.9% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$23.21+2.5% Next Q

Current

Grade C-$23.80+0.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (51) → C- (59)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the COLL Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 59/100 (C-) score, COLL faces multiple-compression risk if 12.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($23.24) or 200D SMA ($33.12) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($23.91) toward Bear Floor ($18.65).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $COLL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “COLL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 59%NO 41%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How COLL Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$327.6M (42% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $566.8M

FY24

Rev $631.4M

FY25

Rev $780.6M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$780.6M	59.3%	23%	$63.0M	$327.6M	95%
FY 2024	$631.4M	59.8%	26.9%	$69.0M	$203.3M	84.8%
FY 2023	$566.8M	59.3%	29.5%	$48.0M	$274.7M	85%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring COLL)

✓Walkthrough of COLL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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COLL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -31.17%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-11-02O $23.23H $24.03L $23.23C $23.80VOL 656.5K

RES: $22.36SUP: $16.05SMA50: $23.24SMA200: $33.12

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

COLL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 COLL Butterfly Map → + Track COLL →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

3.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +23.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on COLL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for COLL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for COLL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (COLL)

Health Care Rank #187 of 1016 ⚔️ HELP vs COLL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (COLL vs. HELP, AVBP, ARDX, ANNX)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc. (COLL) ranks #187 by composite RQD confidence (59/100, grade C-) and #389 by equity capitalization ($782.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, COLL leads on earnings valuation at 12.4x trailing P/E, while COLL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and 59.3% gross margin. COLL currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 59/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
COLL ACTIVE Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc.	C-	59/100	12.4x	59.3%	85.0%	-0.96%	$782.3M	Benchmark Subject
HELP Helus Pharma Inc.	D+	54/100	—	—	—	-1.07%	$782.5M	/help-vs-coll →
AVBP ArriVent BioPharma Inc.	E	29/100	—	—	-35.0%	-6.77%	$786.5M	/avbp-vs-coll →
ARDX Ardelyx Inc.	E	24/100	—	90.3%	-32.7%	-2.26%	$772.5M	/ardx-vs-coll →
ANNX Annexon Inc.	E	30/100	—	—	-35.0%	+1.00%	$760.2M	/annx-vs-coll →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001267565

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc. (COLL) reported GAAP revenue of $780.6M (+23.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $631.4M , and +37.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $63.0M, operating cash flow of $329.3M, and free cash flow of $327.6M (+61.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, COLL closed FY2025 with $1.66B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.27, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$780.6M	$63.0M	$329.3M	$327.6M	$1.66B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$631.4M	$69.0M	$205.0M	$203.3M	$1.66B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$566.8M	$48.0M	$274.7M	$274.7M	—	—

3. COLL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is COLL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does COLL compare to HELP and AVBP in the Health Care sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for COLL?

Where is COLL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

COLL last traded at $23.80 (-0.96% on volume of 401,954 shares), positioning the stock +2.41% above its 50-day simple moving average ($23.24) and -28.14% below its 200-day simple moving average ($33.12). Across its 52-week range of $21.43 to $50.79, COLL sits at the 8.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 59.0 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.0% ($22.13 to $25.47).

COLL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc. (COLL)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), COLL converted $780.6M of revenue into a 59.3% gross margin, 23% operating margin, and $327.6M in free cash flow (42% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: COLL RQD Cockpit COLL 12M Forecast COLL Earnings & Move COLL Dividends & DRIP COLL Insiders & 13F COLL Whale Options COLL Profit Sankey COLL News & Why