Stock Ratings / Health Care / COLL / earnings

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Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc. (COLL) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±6.9% Move

$24.03 +3.44% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $24.24

Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc. (COLL) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 72/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (59% profit margin, 85% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 72/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 13% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.7% hit rate) →

ROARABLE B • BUY Cap $782.3M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $24.24 (+0.86%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 16/20 (B+) • 42% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 72/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 13% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.7% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk C+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+6.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for COLL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.9%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (72/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY COLL SCORES 72/100 (B) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+16/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 42% FCF Margin ($327.6M FCF) & 59.3% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (21% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 9% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 56.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 8 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$22.09+5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B-$23.19-1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$22.96+4.7% Next Q

Current

Grade B$24.03+7% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (64) → B (72)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the COLL Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 72/100 (B) score, COLL faces multiple-compression risk if 12.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 56.8% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($23.30) or 200D SMA ($33.24) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($25.54) toward Bear Floor ($19.70).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $COLL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “COLL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 72%NO 28%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±6.9% Swing Band

±$1.66 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

COLL Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 72/100

Trailing EPS: $1.94 • YoY Revenue Growth: 23.6%

Model Bullish Setup (72/100)Model Risk Weight (28/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$780.6M	$63.0M	$327.6M	59.3%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$631.4M	$69.0M	$203.3M	59.8%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$566.8M	$48.0M	$274.7M	59.3%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating COLL & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on COLL
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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COLL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -28.76%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $24.28H $24.50L $23.66C $24.03VOL 401.9K

RES: $34.26SUP: $16.22SMA50: $23.30SMA200: $33.24

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

COLL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 COLL Butterfly Map → + Track COLL →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

3.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +23.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on COLL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for COLL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for COLL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (COLL)

Health Care Rank #76 of 1016 ⚔️ HELP vs COLL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (COLL vs. HELP, AVBP, ARDX, ANNX)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc. (COLL) ranks #76 by composite RQD confidence (72/100, grade B) and #389 by equity capitalization ($782.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, COLL leads on earnings valuation at 12.4x trailing P/E, while COLL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and 59.3% gross margin. COLL currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 72/100 (B).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
COLL ACTIVE Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc.	B	72/100	12.4x	59.3%	85.0%	+3.44%	$782.3M	Benchmark Subject
HELP Helus Pharma Inc.	D	49/100	—	—	—	-1.83%	$782.5M	/help-vs-coll →
AVBP ArriVent BioPharma Inc.	D-	35/100	—	—	-35.0%	+1.40%	$786.5M	/avbp-vs-coll →
ARDX Ardelyx Inc.	D-	35/100	—	90.3%	-32.7%	0.00%	$772.5M	/ardx-vs-coll →
ANNX Annexon Inc.	D-	40/100	—	—	-35.0%	-0.74%	$760.2M	/annx-vs-coll →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001267565

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc. (COLL) reported GAAP revenue of $780.6M (+23.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $631.4M , and +37.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $63.0M, operating cash flow of $329.3M, and free cash flow of $327.6M (+61.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, COLL closed FY2025 with $1.66B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.27, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$780.6M	$63.0M	$329.3M	$327.6M	$1.66B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$631.4M	$69.0M	$205.0M	$203.3M	$1.66B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$566.8M	$48.0M	$274.7M	$274.7M	—	—

3. COLL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is COLL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc. (NASDAQ: COLL) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 72/100 at a spot price of $24.03 (+3.44% 1D, market cap $782.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, COLL ranks #76 in composite RQD confidence.

How does COLL compare to HELP and AVBP in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), COLL carries a Roarable B (72/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.4x, gross margin of 59.3%, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, HELP (Helus Pharma Inc.) holds a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $782.5M) and AVBP (ArriVent BioPharma Inc.) posts a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $786.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, COLL leads on earnings multiple (12.4x) while COLL leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for COLL?

Per COLL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001267565), Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc. generated $780.6M in revenue (+23.6% YoY), $63.0M in net income, and $327.6M in free cash flow against $1.66B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (59% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is COLL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

COLL last traded at $24.03 (+3.44% on volume of 656,483 shares), positioning the stock +3.13% above its 50-day simple moving average ($23.30) and -27.71% below its 200-day simple moving average ($33.24). Across its 52-week range of $21.43 to $50.79, COLL sits at the 8.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 56.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.9% ($22.37 to $25.69).

COLL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is COLL's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc. (COLL)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is COLL stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±6.9% event move for COLL, spanning a range between $22.37 and $25.69.

Direct Sub-Reports: COLL RQD Cockpit COLL 12M Forecast COLL Earnings & Move COLL Dividends & DRIP COLL Insiders & 13F COLL Whale Options COLL Profit Sankey COLL News & Why