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ArriVent BioPharma Inc. (AVBP) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$15.95 +1.40% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $15.96

ArriVent BioPharma Inc. (AVBP) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 29/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (29/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $786.5M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on AVBP Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AVBP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, ArriVent BioPharma Inc. (NASDAQ: AVBP) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 29/100 at a spot price of $15.95 (+1.40% 1D, market cap $786.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, AVBP ranks #872 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AVBP compare to HELP and COLL in the Health Care sector?

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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), AVBP carries a Roarable E (29/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, HELP (Helus Pharma Inc.) holds a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $782.5M) and COLL (Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc.) posts a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 12.4x, ROIC 85.0%, cap $782.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, COLL leads on earnings multiple (12.4x) while COLL leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AVBP?

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Per AVBP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001868279), ArriVent BioPharma Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$166.3M in net income, and -$160.6M in free cash flow against $333.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $15.96 (+0.06%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (29/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-9.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-13% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AVBP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (29/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY AVBP SCORES 29/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (34% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+7/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 19% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 36.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$16.46+9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$17.94-14.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$15.36+3.8% Next Q

Current

Grade E$15.95-9.8% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (37) → E (29)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AVBP Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AVBP currently carries a cautious 29/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($24.49) and Max Pain ($16.75) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $37.62.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AVBP• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “AVBP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 29%NO 71%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

36.930 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

2 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE19% OF RANGE

L: $11$15.95H: $36

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: ERQD 6 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: ERQD 6 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 17 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on AVBP

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (30)

-35.0% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and -20.42% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 2/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (22)

6/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 7/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like AVBP

✓Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AVBP)

✓Walkthrough of AVBP's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

AVBP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -47.50%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-02O $15.73H $15.95L $15.73C $15.95VOL 658.3K

RES: $29.50SUP: $6.98SMA50: $24.49SMA200: $26.93

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AVBP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AVBP Butterfly Map → + Track AVBP →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AVBP today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AVBP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AVBP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AVBP)

Health Care Rank #872 of 1016 ⚔️ HELP vs AVBP Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (AVBP vs. HELP, COLL, ARDX, ANNX)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, ArriVent BioPharma Inc. (AVBP) ranks #872 by composite RQD confidence (29/100, grade E) and #387 by equity capitalization ($786.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, COLL leads on earnings valuation at 12.4x trailing P/E, while COLL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and 59.3% gross margin. COLL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 59/100 (C-) compared with AVBP at 29/100 (E).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
AVBP ACTIVE ArriVent BioPharma Inc.	E	29/100	—	—	-35.0%	+1.40%	$786.5M	Benchmark Subject
HELP Helus Pharma Inc.	D+	54/100	—	—	—	-1.83%	$782.5M	/help-vs-avbp →
COLL Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc.	C-	59/100	12.4x	59.3%	85.0%	+3.44%	$782.3M	/coll-vs-avbp →
ARDX Ardelyx Inc.	E	24/100	—	90.3%	-32.7%	0.00%	$772.5M	/ardx-vs-avbp →
ANNX Annexon Inc.	E	30/100	—	—	-35.0%	-0.74%	$760.2M	/annx-vs-avbp →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001868279

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), ArriVent BioPharma Inc. (AVBP) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$166.3M, operating cash flow of -$160.6M, and free cash flow of -$160.6M (-128.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, AVBP closed FY2025 with $333.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	-$166.3M	-$160.6M	-$160.6M	$333.2M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	-$80.5M	-$70.2M	-$70.2M	$274.9M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	-$69.3M	-$55.8M	-$55.8M	—	—

3. AVBP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AVBP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does AVBP compare to HELP and COLL in the Health Care sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AVBP?

Where is AVBP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AVBP last traded at $15.95 (+1.40% on volume of 658,332 shares), positioning the stock -34.87% below its 50-day simple moving average ($24.49) and -40.77% below its 200-day simple moving average ($26.93). Across its 52-week range of $11.36 to $35.83, AVBP sits at the 18.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 36.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($13.96 to $17.94).

AVBP Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell AVBP stock right now?

ArriVent BioPharma Inc. (AVBP) currently earns a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell — SELL) with 29/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is AVBP's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

AVBP's 12-month base price target is $13.87 (range $10.82 to $37.62), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: AVBP RQD Cockpit AVBP 12M Forecast AVBP Earnings & Move AVBP Dividends & DRIP AVBP Insiders & 13F AVBP Whale Options AVBP Profit Sankey AVBP News & Why