CATALYSTBenzinga • 5d ago
Guggenheim Maintains Buy on ArriVent BioPharma, Raises Price Target to $30Guggenheim analyst Michael Schmidt maintains ArriVent BioPharma (NASDAQ:AVBP) with a Buy and raises the price target from $18 to $30.
Why AVBP Stock advanced +1.40% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$15.95 +1.40% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $15.96
ArriVent BioPharma Inc. (AVBP) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 35/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT
Cap $786.5M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $15.96 (+0.06%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (35/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-10.3% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AVBP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (35/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AVBP SCORES 35/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (29% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+8/20 pts (23% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)
Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade D$16.73-0.4% Next Q
43
Q2 (-2Q)Grade D$16.66+26.1% Next Q
40
Q3 (-1Q)Grade E$21.00-24% Next Q
38
CurrentGrade D-$15.95-8.5% Hist 90D α
35
Trajectory: D (43) → D- (35)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AVBP Turnaround Squeeze
While AVBP currently carries a cautious 35/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($24.75) and Max Pain ($16.75) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $37.62.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AVBP• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AVBP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why AVBP Stock advanced +1.40% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
ArriVent BioPharma Inc. (AVBP) advanced +1.40% to $15.95, trading at 19% of its 52-week range ($11.36 – $35.83). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 19% of its 52-week range ($11.36 – $35.83) with RSI-14 at 32.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $15.95 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live AVBP Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREYahoo • 5d ago
ArriVent BioPharma’s ARR-217 Shows 44.8% Response Rate in Colorectal Cancer StudyArriVent BioPharma (NASDAQ:AVBP) presented Phase I data for ARR-217, its CDH17-targeting antibody-drug conjugate, or ADC, in heavily pretreated metastatic colorectal cancer patients during a virtual webinar following an
MARKET WIREYahoo • 5d ago
ArriVent BioPharma (AVBP) Advances ARR 217 Into Phase 1b, Is The Selloff Overdone?ArriVent BioPharma (AVBP) is back in focus after releasing initial Phase 1 data for its CDH17-targeted antibody drug conjugate ARR-217 at the 2026 ESMO Congress and advancing the asset into Phase 1b. For context, ArriVen
CATALYSTBenzinga • 6d ago
12 Health Care Stocks Moving In Monday's Intraday SessionGainers Surgery Partners (NASDAQ:SGRY) shares moved upwards by 46.9% to $23.14 during Monday's regular session. The market value of their outstanding shares is at $2.0 billion. SciSparc (NASDAQ:SPRC) shares rose
MARKET WIREBenzinga • 6d ago
Why Surgery Partners Shares Are Trading Higher By Over 20%; Here Are 20 Stocks Moving PremarketSurgery Partners surged 20.6% on reported $6B Bon Secours deal talks; Scisparc and Xencor led gainers, while XP and others plunged.
CATALYSTBenzinga • 7d ago
ArriVent Announced Sunday, Initial Phase 1 Data For CDH17-Targeted ADC ARR-217 In Gastrointestinal Cancers At ESMO, Demonstrating 44.8% Objective Response Rate At 6mg/kg Dose In Late-Line Colorectal Cancer PatientsARR-217 was generally well-tolerated. ArriVent to host virtual webinar on Monday, October 26, 2026, at 8 am ET to discuss the data from the ARR-217 program
CATALYSTYahoo • 7d ago
ArriVent Announces Initial Phase 1 Data for CDH17-targeted ADC ARR-217 in Patients with Gastrointestinal Cancers at ESMO Congress 202644.8% ORR at 6mg/kg dose in late-line CRC patients ARR-217 was generally well-tolerated ArriVent to host virtual webinar on Monday, October 26, 2026, at 8 am ET to discuss the data from the ARR-217 program NEWTOWN SQUARE
RISK WATCHYahoo • 8d ago
Why ArriVent BioPharma Stock Is In Focus After Trial Failure And Legal ProbeArriVent BioPharma disclosed that its global Phase 3 FURVENT trial did not meet its primary endpoint, prompting a law firm to investigate whether prior disclosures around the trial and emerging efficacy data adequately i
MARKET WIREYahoo • 9d ago
ArriVent to Present Initial Phase 1 Data for CDH17-targeted ADC ARR-217 in Patients with Gastrointestinal Cancers at the ESMO Congress 2026First-in-human data for ARR-217 selected as a late-breaking oral presentation ArriVent to host virtual webinar on Monday, October 26, 2026, at 8 am ET to discuss the data from the ARR-217 program NEWTOWN SQUARE, Pa., Oct
MARKET WIREBenzinga • 9d ago
ArriVent BioPharma To Present Initial Safety, Efficacy Results Of Its Phase 1 Trial Of CDH17-Targeted ADC ARR-217 In Participants With Gastrointestinal Cancers At ESMO Congress 2026ArriVent BioPharma, Inc. (Company or ArriVent) (NASDAQ:AVBP), a clinical-stage company dedicated to accelerating the global development of innovative biopharmaceutical therapeutics, today announced that initial safety
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AVBP)
- ✓Walkthrough of AVBP's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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AVBP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -48.70%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $15.78H $16.17L $14.32C $15.95VOL 1.19M
RES: $29.57SUP: $7.21SMA50: $24.75SMA200: $26.96
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
AVBP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AVBP today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AVBP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AVBP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AVBP)
Health Care Rank #815 of 1016
⚔️ HELP vs AVBP Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (AVBP vs. HELP, COLL, ARDX, ANNX)
Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, ArriVent BioPharma Inc. (AVBP) ranks #815 by composite RQD confidence (35/100, grade D-) and #387 by equity capitalization ($786.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, COLL leads on earnings valuation at 12.4x trailing P/E, while COLL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and 59.3% gross margin. COLL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with AVBP at 35/100 (D-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVBP
ACTIVE
ArriVent BioPharma Inc. | D- | 35/100 | — | — | -35.0% | +1.40% | $786.5M | Benchmark Subject |
| HELP Helus Pharma Inc. | D | 49/100 | — | — | — | -1.83% | $782.5M | /help-vs-avbp → |
| COLL Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc. | B | 72/100 | 12.4x | 59.3% | 85.0% | +3.44% | $782.3M | /coll-vs-avbp → |
| ARDX Ardelyx Inc. | D- | 35/100 | — | 90.3% | -32.7% | 0.00% | $772.5M | /ardx-vs-avbp → |
| ANNX Annexon Inc. | D- | 40/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -0.74% | $760.2M | /annx-vs-avbp → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001868279In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), ArriVent BioPharma Inc. (AVBP) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$166.3M, operating cash flow of -$160.6M, and free cash flow of -$160.6M (-128.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, AVBP closed FY2025 with $333.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | -$166.3M | -$160.6M | -$160.6M | $333.2M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $0 | -$80.5M | -$70.2M | -$70.2M | $274.9M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $0 | -$69.3M | -$55.8M | -$55.8M | — | — |
3. AVBP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs AVBP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, ArriVent BioPharma Inc. (NASDAQ: AVBP) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 35/100 at a spot price of $15.95 (+1.40% 1D, market cap $786.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, AVBP ranks #815 in composite RQD confidence.
How does AVBP compare to HELP and COLL in the Health Care sector?
Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), AVBP carries a Roarable D- (35/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, HELP (Helus Pharma Inc.) holds a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $782.5M) and COLL (Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc.) posts a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 12.4x, ROIC 85.0%, cap $782.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, COLL leads on earnings multiple (12.4x) while COLL leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AVBP?
Per AVBP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001868279), ArriVent BioPharma Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$166.3M in net income, and -$160.6M in free cash flow against $333.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is AVBP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
AVBP last traded at $15.95 (+1.40% on volume of 658,332 shares), positioning the stock -35.56% below its 50-day simple moving average ($24.75) and -40.84% below its 200-day simple moving average ($26.96). Across its 52-week range of $11.36 to $35.83, AVBP sits at the 18.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 32.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($13.96 to $17.94).
AVBP Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is AVBP stock moving today?
Why AVBP Stock advanced +1.40% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.