Certara Inc. (CERT) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 50/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
Certara Inc. (CERT) dropped -2.44% to $11.20, trading at 91% of its 52-week range ($4.45 – $11.88). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (1% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
Key TakeawaysAbsci fell 8% today as AI drug discovery peers Schrödinger and Recursion slid in a Nasdaq sell-off. These stocks trade together on sentiment, so the drop says little about Absci’s business.
RADNOR, Pa., Oct. 26, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Certara, Inc. (Nasdaq: CERT), a global leader in model-informed drug development, today announced that it will release financial results for the third quarter of 2026 before
Certara has seen its share price move around in recent years, which puts fresh attention on a simple question for anyone looking at the stock today. Is the current US$10.33 price broadly aligned with what the business ma
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. +8.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CERT today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CERT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Certara Inc. (CERT) ranks #398 by composite RQD confidence (50/100, grade D) and #311 by equity capitalization ($1.71B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, XZO leads on earnings valuation at 19.3x trailing P/E, while XZO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and 60.4% gross margin. XZO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with CERT at 50/100 (D).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CERT
ACTIVE
Certara Inc. | D | 50/100 | — | — | 1.4% | -2.44% | $1.71B | Benchmark Subject |
| BAND Bandwidth Inc. | D+ | 55/100 | — | 39.1% | -2.1% | +9.62% | $1.71B | /band-vs-cert → |
| IQMX IQM Quantum Computers Oyj | D | 50/100 | — | — | — | -4.78% | $1.74B | /iqmx-vs-cert → |
| EVCM EverCommerce Inc. | D+ | 52/100 | 91.9x | — | 4.2% | -2.56% | $1.62B | /evcm-vs-cert → |
| XZO Exzeo Group Inc. | C+ | 67/100 | 19.3x | 60.4% | 85.0% | +0.68% | $1.60B | /xzo-vs-cert → |
In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Certara Inc. (CERT) reported GAAP revenue of $418.8M (+8.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $385.1M , and +18.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$1.6M, operating cash flow of $96.3M, and free cash flow of $94.6M (+19.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, CERT closed FY2025 with $1.56B in total assets against $290.1M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.40, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $418.8M | -$1.6M | $96.3M | $94.6M | $1.56B | $290.1M |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $385.1M | -$12.1M | $80.5M | $78.8M | $1.58B | $292.4M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $354.3M | -$55.4M | $82.8M | $82.8M | — | — |
As of 2026-11-01, Certara Inc. (NASDAQ: CERT) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $11.20 (-2.44% 1D, market cap $1.71B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, CERT ranks #398 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), CERT carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 1.4%. By comparison, BAND (Bandwidth Inc.) holds a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.1%, cap $1.71B) and IQMX (IQM Quantum Computers Oyj) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.74B). Among the 5-stock peer group, XZO leads on earnings multiple (19.3x) while XZO leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).
Per CERT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001827090), Certara Inc. generated $418.8M in revenue (+8.7% YoY), -$1.6M in net income, and $94.6M in free cash flow against $1.56B in total assets and $290.1M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
CERT last traded at $11.20 (-2.44% on volume of 2,749,216 shares), positioning the stock +24.17% above its 50-day simple moving average ($9.02) and +54.06% above its 200-day simple moving average ($7.27). Across its 52-week range of $4.45 to $11.88, CERT sits at the 90.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 66.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.4% ($9.81 to $12.59).
Why CERT Stock dropped -2.44% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (1% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.