Stock Ratings / Financials / CBU / options

SFNC (60) PRK (73) MCHB (58) FFBC (64) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Community Financial System Inc. (CBU) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$63.37 +0.96% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $63.36

Community Financial System Inc. (CBU) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $3.33B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $63.36 (-0.02%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 28.5% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CBU)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.3%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (63/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY CBU SCORES 63/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 28.5% FCF Margin ($233.3M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$58.63+2.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$60.24+3.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$62.42+1.5% Next Q

Current

Grade C$63.37+0.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (55) → C (63)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the CBU Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 63/100 (C) score, CBU faces multiple-compression risk if 15.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($61.53) or 200D SMA ($62.88) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($64.80) toward Bear Floor ($50.54).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CBU• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “CBU Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 63%NO 37%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±4.3%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (CBU)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for CBU.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating CBU & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on CBU
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✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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CBU // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +0.02%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-10-30O $63.90H $64.15L $61.97C $63.37VOL 262.2K

RES: $59.86SUP: $55.78SMA50: $61.53SMA200: $62.88

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CBU Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CBU Butterfly Map → + Track CBU →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +9.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CBU today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CBU. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CBU today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CBU)

Financials Rank #381 of 1096 ⚔️ SFNC vs CBU Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (CBU vs. SFNC, PRK, MCHB, FFBC)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Community Financial System Inc. (CBU) ranks #381 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #343 by equity capitalization ($3.33B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MCHB leads on earnings valuation at 12.2x trailing P/E, while PRK leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.3% ROIC and — gross margin. PRK currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with CBU at 63/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
CBU ACTIVE Community Financial System Inc.	C	63/100	15.8x	—	10.5%	+0.96%	$3.33B	Benchmark Subject
SFNC Simmons First National Corporation (Class A)	C-	60/100	—	—	-11.1%	+1.30%	$3.38B	/sfnc-vs-cbu →
PRK Park National Corporation	B	73/100	18.2x	—	13.3%	+1.53%	$3.27B	/prk-vs-cbu →
MCHB Mechanics Bancorp (Class A)	D+	58/100	12.2x	—	9.3%	-1.81%	$3.23B	/mchb-vs-cbu →
FFBC First Financial Bancorp.	C	64/100	—	—	0.0%	+0.34%	$3.45B	/ffbc-vs-cbu →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000723188

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Community Financial System Inc. (CBU) reported GAAP revenue of $818.0M (+9.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $746.3M , and +25.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $210.5M, operating cash flow of $301.9M, and free cash flow of $233.3M (+5.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, CBU closed FY2025 with $17.30B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$818.0M	$210.5M	$301.9M	$233.3M	$17.30B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$746.3M	$182.5M	$242.3M	$221.6M	$16.39B	$990.2M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$652.1M	$131.9M	$228.4M	$228.4M	—	—

3. CBU Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CBU stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Community Financial System Inc. (NYSE: CBU) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $63.37 (+0.96% 1D, market cap $3.33B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, CBU ranks #381 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CBU compare to SFNC and PRK in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), CBU carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 15.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.5%. By comparison, SFNC (Simmons First National Corporation (Class A)) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -11.1%, cap $3.38B) and PRK (Park National Corporation) posts a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 18.2x, ROIC 13.3%, cap $3.27B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MCHB leads on earnings multiple (12.2x) while PRK leads on capital efficiency (13.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CBU?

Per CBU's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000723188), Community Financial System Inc. generated $818.0M in revenue (+9.6% YoY), $210.5M in net income, and $233.3M in free cash flow against $17.30B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CBU trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CBU last traded at $63.37 (+0.96% on volume of 251,457 shares), positioning the stock +2.99% above its 50-day simple moving average ($61.53) and +0.78% above its 200-day simple moving average ($62.88). Across its 52-week range of $53.46 to $71.11, CBU sits at the 56.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 57.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.3% ($60.65 to $66.09).

CBU Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is CBU's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for CBU.

Direct Sub-Reports: CBU RQD Cockpit CBU 12M Forecast CBU Earnings & Move CBU Dividends & DRIP CBU Insiders & 13F CBU Whale Options CBU Profit Sankey CBU News & Why