MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why CBRL Stock surged +2.23% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$72.45 +2.23% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $72.60
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc (CBRL) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 65/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $1.62B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $72.60 (+0.21%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 1.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.1% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CBRL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (65/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY CBRL SCORES 65/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (23% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (22% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 1.7% FCF Margin ($59.8M FCF) & 69% Gross Margin
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)
Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (67.6) create a -9 pt regime headwind
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C$57.46+20% Next Q
57
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C$68.97-1.9% Next Q
60
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C+$67.66+7.1% Next Q
62
CurrentGrade C$72.45+1.3% Hist 90D α
65
Trajectory: C (57) → C (65)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the CBRL Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 65/100 (C) score, CBRL faces multiple-compression risk if 34.9x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 66.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($56.85) or 200D SMA ($42.72) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($74.73) toward Bear Floor ($58.29).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CBRL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “CBRL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Jan 29, 2027) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why CBRL Stock surged +2.23% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc (CBRL) surged +2.23% to $72.45, trading at 98% of its 52-week range ($24.85 – $73.67). Solid 69% profit margin (5% return on capital), mixed timing at 35x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 98% of its 52-week range ($24.85 – $73.67) with RSI-14 at 67.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±9.1% around $72.45 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C (Hold) backed by 69% gross margin and $59.8M annual free cash flow.
Live CBRL Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (CBRL Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
CBRL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +131.32%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-10-30O $72.50H $73.67L $69.83C $72.45VOL 743.6K
RES: $72.51SUP: $40.27SMA50: $56.85SMA200: $42.72
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
CBRL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
26.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +0.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CBRL today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CBRL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CBRL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CBRL)
Consumer Discretionary Rank #283 of 1011
⚔️ ARCO vs CBRL Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (CBRL vs. ARCO, WEN, SG, BJRI)
Industry: Restaurants (51 Tracked Issuers)Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc (CBRL) ranks #283 by composite RQD confidence (65/100, grade C) and #445 by equity capitalization ($1.62B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ARCO leads on earnings valuation at 6.9x trailing P/E, while ARCO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.9% ROIC and 96.0% gross margin. CBRL currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 65/100 (C).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBRL
ACTIVE
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc | C | 65/100 | 34.9x | 69.0% | 5.4% | +2.23% | $1.62B | Benchmark Subject |
| ARCO Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A) | D+ | 57/100 | 6.9x | 96.0% | 18.9% | -0.29% | $1.45B | /arco-vs-cbrl → |
| WEN Wendy's Company | D+ | 58/100 | 8.3x | 63.6% | 10.7% | +1.34% | $1.37B | /wen-vs-cbrl → |
| SG Sweetgreen Inc. (Class A) | E | 22/100 | — | — | -35.0% | +1.51% | $1.36B | /sg-vs-cbrl → |
| BJRI BJ's Restaurants Inc. | C | 65/100 | 27.6x | 74.7% | 10.7% | +4.58% | $1.35B | /bjri-vs-cbrl → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-08-01 • CIK 0001067294In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-08-01), Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc (CBRL) reported GAAP revenue of $3.48B (+0.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.47B , and +1.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $46.4M, operating cash flow of $218.9M, and free cash flow of $59.8M (+46.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, CBRL closed FY2025 with $2.10B in total assets against $381.8M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-08-01 | $3.48B | $46.4M | $218.9M | $59.8M | $2.10B | $381.8M |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-08-02 | $3.47B | $40.9M | $169.0M | $40.7M | $2.15B | $471.5M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-07-28 | $3.44B | $99.1M | $250.5M | $250.5M | — | — |
3. CBRL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs CBRL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc (NASDAQ: CBRL) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $72.45 (+2.23% 1D, market cap $1.62B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, CBRL ranks #283 in composite RQD confidence.
How does CBRL compare to ARCO and WEN in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), CBRL carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 34.9x, gross margin of 69.0%, and ROIC of 5.4%. By comparison, ARCO (Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A)) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 6.9x, ROIC 18.9%, cap $1.45B) and WEN (Wendy's Company) posts a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 8.3x, ROIC 10.7%, cap $1.37B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARCO leads on earnings multiple (6.9x) while ARCO leads on capital efficiency (18.9% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CBRL?
Per CBRL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-08-01, CIK 0001067294), Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc generated $3.48B in revenue (+0.4% YoY), $46.4M in net income, and $59.8M in free cash flow against $2.10B in total assets and $381.8M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is CBRL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
CBRL last traded at $72.45 (+2.23% on volume of 743,130 shares), positioning the stock +27.44% above its 50-day simple moving average ($56.85) and +69.59% above its 200-day simple moving average ($42.72). Across its 52-week range of $24.85 to $73.67, CBRL sits at the 97.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 67.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.1% ($65.86 to $79.04).
CBRL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is CBRL stock moving today?
Why CBRL Stock surged +2.23% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid 69% profit margin (5% return on capital), mixed timing at 35x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.