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BrightSpire Capital Inc. (Class A) (BRSP) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

Q: Is BRSP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, BrightSpire Capital Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: BRSP) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 43/100 at a spot price of $3.53 (-3.55% 1D, market cap $440.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, BRSP ranks #952 in composite RQD confidence.

Q: How does BRSP compare to TCI and FVR in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), BRSP carries a Roarable D- (43/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -3.3%. By comparison, TCI (Transcontinental Realty Investors Inc.) holds a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E 31.6x, ROIC -0.6%, cap $435.7M) and FVR (FrontView REIT Inc.) posts a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -1.2%, cap $453.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, FBRT leads on earnings multiple (5.5x) while FBRT leads on capital efficiency (5.8% ROIC).

Q: What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BRSP?

Per BRSP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001717547), BrightSpire Capital Inc. (Class A) generated $330.6M in revenue (-7.9% YoY), -$31.1M in net income, and $73.0M in free cash flow against $3.56B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Q: Where is BRSP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BRSP last traded at $3.53 (-3.55% on volume of 2,887,680 shares), positioning the stock -14.32% below its 50-day simple moving average ($4.12) and -32.63% below its 200-day simple moving average ($5.24). Across its 52-week range of $3.42 to $6.17, BRSP sits at the 4.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 24.9 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.3% ($3.27 to $3.79).

Q: What is BRSP's 12-month stock price target?

BrightSpire Capital Inc. (Class A) (BRSP) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $3.29 (-6.8% from $3.53), with a bull-case target of $6.48 and a bear-case floor of $2.57.

Q: Is BRSP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates BRSP D- (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 43/100.

$3.53 -3.55% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.50

BrightSpire Capital Inc. (Class A) (BRSP) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 43/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (43/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • SELL / AVOID Cap $440.1M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.50 (-0.83%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 22.1% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (43/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D-

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BRSP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.3%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (43/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY BRSP SCORES 43/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+10/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 4% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 24.9 (OVERSOLD (<32))

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$3.81-3.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$3.69-0.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$3.66-3.6% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$3.53-6.7% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (51) → D- (43)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a BRSP Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While BRSP currently carries a cautious 43/100 (D-) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($4.12) and Max Pain ($3.71) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $6.48.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BRSP• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “BRSP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 43%NO 57%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your BRSP Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $3.53: 2832.9 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $2.57

$7,280

$-2,720 (-27.2%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $3.29

$9,320

$-680 (-6.8%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $6.48

$18,357

+$8,357 (+83.6%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$3	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$6	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$3	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring BRSP)

✓Walkthrough of BRSP's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

BRSP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -39.14%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-10-30O $3.53H $3.54L $3.42C $3.53VOL 2.15M

RES: $3.85SUP: $3.33SMA50: $4.12SMA200: $5.24

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BRSP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BRSP Butterfly Map → + Track BRSP →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -7.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BRSP today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BRSP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BRSP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BRSP)

Financials Rank #952 of 1096 ⚔️ TCI vs BRSP Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (BRSP vs. TCI, FVR, FBRT, ILPT)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, BrightSpire Capital Inc. (Class A) (BRSP) ranks #952 by composite RQD confidence (43/100, grade D-) and #734 by equity capitalization ($440.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FBRT leads on earnings valuation at 5.5x trailing P/E, while FBRT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 5.8% ROIC and — gross margin. FBRT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 63/100 (C) compared with BRSP at 43/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
BRSP ACTIVE BrightSpire Capital Inc. (Class A)	D-	43/100	—	—	-3.3%	-3.55%	$440.1M	Benchmark Subject
TCI Transcontinental Realty Investors Inc.	D-	38/100	31.6x	—	-0.6%	+3.00%	$435.7M	/tci-vs-brsp →
FVR FrontView REIT Inc.	D	49/100	—	—	-1.2%	+4.27%	$453.4M	/fvr-vs-brsp →
FBRT Franklin BSP Realty Trust Inc.	C	63/100	5.5x	—	5.8%	-2.84%	$466.1M	/fbrt-vs-brsp →
ILPT Industrial Logistics Properties Trust of	D+	54/100	—	—	-13.5%	-4.90%	$467.5M	/ilpt-vs-brsp →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001717547

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), BrightSpire Capital Inc. (Class A) (BRSP) reported GAAP revenue of $330.6M (-7.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $358.8M , and -20.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$31.1M, operating cash flow of $73.0M, and free cash flow of $73.0M (-29.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, BRSP closed FY2025 with $3.56B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$330.6M	-$31.1M	$73.0M	$73.0M	$3.56B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$358.8M	-$132.0M	$103.4M	$103.4M	$3.72B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$415.1M	-$15.5M	$137.6M	$137.6M	—	—

3. BRSP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BRSP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, BrightSpire Capital Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: BRSP) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 43/100 at a spot price of $3.53 (-3.55% 1D, market cap $440.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, BRSP ranks #952 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BRSP compare to TCI and FVR in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), BRSP carries a Roarable D- (43/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -3.3%. By comparison, TCI (Transcontinental Realty Investors Inc.) holds a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E 31.6x, ROIC -0.6%, cap $435.7M) and FVR (FrontView REIT Inc.) posts a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -1.2%, cap $453.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, FBRT leads on earnings multiple (5.5x) while FBRT leads on capital efficiency (5.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BRSP?

Per BRSP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001717547), BrightSpire Capital Inc. (Class A) generated $330.6M in revenue (-7.9% YoY), -$31.1M in net income, and $73.0M in free cash flow against $3.56B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BRSP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BRSP last traded at $3.53 (-3.55% on volume of 2,887,680 shares), positioning the stock -14.32% below its 50-day simple moving average ($4.12) and -32.63% below its 200-day simple moving average ($5.24). Across its 52-week range of $3.42 to $6.17, BRSP sits at the 4.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 24.9 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.3% ($3.27 to $3.79).

BRSP Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is BRSP's 12-month stock price target?

BrightSpire Capital Inc. (Class A) (BRSP) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $3.29 (-6.8% from $3.53), with a bull-case target of $6.48 and a bear-case floor of $2.57.