MARKET WIREReuters • 2h ago
Iran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz - ReutersIran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz Reuters
Why BRBR Stock dropped -2.48% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$9.06 -2.48% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.04
BellRing Brands Inc. (BRBR) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 75/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (33% profit margin, 46% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.
ROARABLE B • BUY
Cap $1.05B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.04 (-0.21%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 19/20 (A+) • 11.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 75/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 12% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.7% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk B
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+7.6% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BRBR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (75/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY BRBR SCORES 75/100 (B) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+19/20 pts (25% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 11.2% FCF Margin ($260.6M FCF) & 33.3% Gross Margin
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+19/20 pts (25% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-13 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade B-$8.55+10.3% Next Q
67
Q2 (-2Q)Grade B$9.43+1.3% Next Q
70
Q3 (-1Q)Grade B$9.55-5.1% Next Q
72
CurrentGrade B$9.06+7.4% Hist 90D α
75
Trajectory: B- (67) → B (75)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the BRBR Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 75/100 (B) score, BRBR faces multiple-compression risk if 4.9x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 30.8% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($9.14) or 200D SMA ($13.33) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($9.75) toward Bear Floor ($7.43).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BRBR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “BRBR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why BRBR Stock dropped -2.48% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
BellRing Brands Inc. (BRBR) dropped -2.48% to $9.06, trading at 7% of its 52-week range ($7.33 – $33.56). High-quality cash engine (33% profit margin, 46% return on capital) with steady institutional support.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 7% of its 52-week range ($7.33 – $33.56) with RSI-14 at 52.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±11.2% around $9.06 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable B (Buy) backed by 33.3% gross margin and $260.6M annual free cash flow.
Live BRBR Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 4h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
MARKET WIRECNBC • 4h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 6h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 8h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 8h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 9h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (BRBR Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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BRBR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -49.10%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-10-30O $9.15H $9.33L $9.06C $9.06VOL 3.09M
RES: $9.73SUP: $5.52SMA50: $9.14SMA200: $13.33
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
BRBR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
-14.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +16.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BRBR today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BRBR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BRBR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BRBR)
Consumer Staples Rank #10 of 146
⚔️ SENEA vs BRBR Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Staples Peer Comparison (BRBR vs. SENEA, SENEB, SMPL, FLO)
Industry: Packaged Foods (41 Tracked Issuers)Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, BellRing Brands Inc. (BRBR) ranks #10 by composite RQD confidence (75/100, grade B) and #73 by equity capitalization ($1.05B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BRBR leads on earnings valuation at 4.9x trailing P/E, while BRBR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 46.3% ROIC and 33.3% gross margin. BRBR currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 75/100 (B).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRBR
ACTIVE
BellRing Brands Inc. | B | 75/100 | 4.9x | 33.3% | 46.3% | -2.48% | $1.05B | Benchmark Subject |
| SENEA Seneca Foods Corp. (Class A) | D | 51/100 | 9.4x | — | 16.1% | +1.54% | $1.08B | /senea-vs-brbr → |
| SENEB Seneca Foods Corp. (Class B) | D+ | 57/100 | 9.4x | — | 16.1% | 0.00% | $1.08B | /seneb-vs-brbr → |
| SMPL The Simply Good Foods Company | C | 63/100 | 8.9x | 36.2% | 6.4% | -1.66% | $925.9M | /smpl-vs-brbr → |
| FLO Flowers Foods Inc. | B- | 70/100 | 15.6x | — | 5.2% | +0.65% | $1.31B | /flo-vs-brbr → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0001772016In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), BellRing Brands Inc. (BRBR) reported GAAP revenue of $2.32B (+16.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.00B , and +39.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $216.2M, operating cash flow of $260.6M, and free cash flow of $260.6M (+30.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, BRBR closed FY2025 with $1.06B in total assets against $1.18B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.61, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-09-30 | $2.32B | $216.2M | $260.6M | $260.6M | $1.06B | $1.18B |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-09-30 | $2.00B | $246.5M | $199.6M | $199.6M | $885.2M | $833.4M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-09-30 | $1.67B | $165.5M | $215.6M | $215.6M | — | — |
3. BRBR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs BRBR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, BellRing Brands Inc. (NYSE: BRBR) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 75/100 at a spot price of $9.06 (-2.48% 1D, market cap $1.05B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 19/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, BRBR ranks #10 in composite RQD confidence.
How does BRBR compare to SENEA and SENEB in the Consumer Staples sector?
Within the Consumer Staples sector (Packaged Foods), BRBR carries a Roarable B (75/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 4.9x, gross margin of 33.3%, and ROIC of 46.3%. By comparison, SENEA (Seneca Foods Corp. (Class A)) holds a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E 9.4x, ROIC 16.1%, cap $1.08B) and SENEB (Seneca Foods Corp. (Class B)) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 9.4x, ROIC 16.1%, cap $1.08B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BRBR leads on earnings multiple (4.9x) while BRBR leads on capital efficiency (46.3% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BRBR?
Per BRBR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001772016), BellRing Brands Inc. generated $2.32B in revenue (+16.1% YoY), $216.2M in net income, and $260.6M in free cash flow against $1.06B in total assets and $1.18B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (33% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is BRBR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
BRBR last traded at $9.06 (-2.48% on volume of 2,902,198 shares), positioning the stock -0.88% below its 50-day simple moving average ($9.14) and -32.03% below its 200-day simple moving average ($13.33). Across its 52-week range of $7.33 to $33.56, BRBR sits at the 6.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 52.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.2% ($8.05 to $10.07).
BRBR Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is BRBR stock moving today?
Why BRBR Stock dropped -2.48% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. High-quality cash engine (33% profit margin, 46% return on capital) with steady institutional support.