Stock Ratings / Financials / BOW / options

ASIC (66) HRTG (78) IGIC (54) HIPO (61) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$34.13 -0.23% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $34.05

Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 65/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.12B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on BOW Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is BOW stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (NYSE: BOW) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $34.13 (-0.23% 1D, market cap $1.12B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, BOW ranks #284 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does BOW compare to ASIC and HRTG in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), BOW carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 20.9x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 12.0%. By comparison, ASIC (Ategrity Specialty Insurance Company Holdings) holds a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 15.8x, ROIC 12.0%, cap $1.17B) and HRTG (Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc.) posts a B+ grade (78/100 RQD, P/E 5.5x, ROIC 85.0%, cap $1.07B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HRTG leads on earnings multiple (5.5x) while HRTG leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BOW?

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Per BOW's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002002473), Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. generated $551.6M in revenue (+29.6% YoY), $53.8M in net income, and $326.0M in free cash flow against $2.37B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $34.05 (-0.23%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 59.1% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BOW)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±1.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (65/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY BOW SCORES 65/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+14/20 pts (22% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±1.8% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (20% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 59.1% FCF Margin ($326.0M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 8 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$34.02+0.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$34.07+0.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$34.14+0% Next Q

Current

Grade C$34.13+1.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (57) → C (65)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the BOW Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 65/100 (C) score, BOW faces multiple-compression risk if 20.9x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($33.85) or 200D SMA ($28.58) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($35.21) toward Bear Floor ($27.46).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BOW• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “BOW Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 65%NO 35%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±1.8%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (BOW)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for BOW.

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Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating BOW & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on BOW
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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BOW // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +46.61%▼ SUPPORT BREAKDOWN

2026-11-02O $34.21H $34.21L $34.13C $34.13VOL 73.2K

RES: $34.68SUP: $36.29SMA50: $33.85SMA200: $28.58

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BOW Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BOW Butterfly Map → + Track BOW →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

14.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +29.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BOW today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BOW. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BOW today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BOW)

Financials Rank #284 of 1096 ⚔️ ASIC vs BOW Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (BOW vs. ASIC, HRTG, IGIC, HIPO)

Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW) ranks #284 by composite RQD confidence (65/100, grade C) and #529 by equity capitalization ($1.12B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, HRTG leads on earnings valuation at 5.5x trailing P/E, while HRTG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. HRTG currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 78/100 (B+) compared with BOW at 65/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
BOW ACTIVE Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc.	C	65/100	20.9x	—	12.0%	-0.23%	$1.12B	Benchmark Subject
ASIC Ategrity Specialty Insurance Company Holdings	C+	66/100	15.8x	—	12.0%	+5.08%	$1.17B	/asic-vs-bow →
HRTG Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc.	B+	78/100	5.5x	—	85.0%	+4.06%	$1.07B	/hrtg-vs-bow →
IGIC International General Insurance Holdings Ltd. Ordinary Share	D+	54/100	8.3x	—	17.9%	+1.69%	$1.06B	/igic-vs-bow →
HIPO Hippo Holdings Inc.	C-	61/100	15.7x	—	14.4%	-1.46%	$980.6M	/hipo-vs-bow →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002002473

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW) reported GAAP revenue of $551.6M (+29.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $425.7M , and +94.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $53.8M, operating cash flow of $331.6M, and free cash flow of $326.0M (+12.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, BOW closed FY2025 with $2.37B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$551.6M	$53.8M	$331.6M	$326.0M	$2.37B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$425.7M	$38.2M	$294.3M	$291.2M	$1.65B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$283.4M	$25.0M	$236.2M	$236.2M	—	—

3. BOW Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BOW stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does BOW compare to ASIC and HRTG in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BOW?

Where is BOW trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BOW last traded at $34.13 (-0.23% on volume of 73,152 shares), positioning the stock +0.83% above its 50-day simple moving average ($33.85) and +19.42% above its 200-day simple moving average ($28.58). Across its 52-week range of $21.21 to $35.07, BOW sits at the 93.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 57.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±1.8% ($33.52 to $34.74).

BOW Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is BOW's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for BOW.

Direct Sub-Reports: BOW RQD Cockpit BOW 12M Forecast BOW Earnings & Move BOW Dividends & DRIP BOW Insiders & 13F BOW Whale Options BOW Profit Sankey BOW News & Why