Stock Ratings / Financials / BOW / financials

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Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$34.13 -0.23% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $34.05

Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 62/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.12B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $34.05 (-0.23%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 59.1% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk B-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BOW)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±1.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (62/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY BOW SCORES 62/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 93% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 52.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 59.1% FCF Margin ($326.0M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-11 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$34.03+0.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$34.19-0.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$34.04+0.3% Next Q

Current

Grade C$34.13+0.7% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (54) → C (62)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the BOW Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 62/100 (C) score, BOW faces multiple-compression risk if 20.9x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($33.84) or 200D SMA ($28.53) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($34.74) toward Bear Floor ($27.10).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BOW• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “BOW Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 62%NO 38%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How BOW Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$326.0M (59.1% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $283.4M

FY24

Rev $425.7M

FY25

Rev $551.6M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$551.6M	52%	0%	$53.8M	$326.0M	12%
FY 2024	$425.7M	52%	0%	$38.2M	$291.2M	12%
FY 2023	$283.4M	52%	0%	$25.0M	$236.2M	12%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring BOW)

✓Walkthrough of BOW's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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BOW // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +43.52%▼ SUPPORT BREAKDOWN

2026-10-30O $34.64H $34.64L $34.03C $34.13VOL 123.5K

RES: $34.58SUP: $35.23SMA50: $33.84SMA200: $28.53

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BOW Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BOW Butterfly Map → + Track BOW →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

14.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +29.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BOW today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BOW. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BOW today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BOW)

Financials Rank #431 of 1096 ⚔️ ASIC vs BOW Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (BOW vs. ASIC, HRTG, IGIC, HIPO)

Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW) ranks #431 by composite RQD confidence (62/100, grade C) and #529 by equity capitalization ($1.12B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, HRTG leads on earnings valuation at 5.5x trailing P/E, while HRTG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. HRTG currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 79/100 (B+) compared with BOW at 62/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
BOW ACTIVE Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc.	C	62/100	20.9x	—	12.0%	-0.23%	$1.12B	Benchmark Subject
ASIC Ategrity Specialty Insurance Company Holdings	C+	69/100	15.8x	—	12.0%	+5.08%	$1.17B	/asic-vs-bow →
HRTG Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc.	B+	79/100	5.5x	—	85.0%	+4.06%	$1.07B	/hrtg-vs-bow →
IGIC International General Insurance Holdings Ltd. Ordinary Share	D+	58/100	8.3x	—	17.9%	+1.69%	$1.06B	/igic-vs-bow →
HIPO Hippo Holdings Inc.	D+	58/100	15.7x	—	14.4%	-1.46%	$980.6M	/hipo-vs-bow →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002002473

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW) reported GAAP revenue of $551.6M (+29.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $425.7M , and +94.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $53.8M, operating cash flow of $331.6M, and free cash flow of $326.0M (+12.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, BOW closed FY2025 with $2.37B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$551.6M	$53.8M	$331.6M	$326.0M	$2.37B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$425.7M	$38.2M	$294.3M	$291.2M	$1.65B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$283.4M	$25.0M	$236.2M	$236.2M	—	—

3. BOW Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BOW stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (NYSE: BOW) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $34.13 (-0.23% 1D, market cap $1.12B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, BOW ranks #431 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BOW compare to ASIC and HRTG in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), BOW carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 20.9x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 12.0%. By comparison, ASIC (Ategrity Specialty Insurance Company Holdings) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 15.8x, ROIC 12.0%, cap $1.17B) and HRTG (Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc.) posts a B+ grade (79/100 RQD, P/E 5.5x, ROIC 85.0%, cap $1.07B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HRTG leads on earnings multiple (5.5x) while HRTG leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BOW?

Per BOW's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002002473), Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. generated $551.6M in revenue (+29.6% YoY), $53.8M in net income, and $326.0M in free cash flow against $2.37B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BOW trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BOW last traded at $34.13 (-0.23% on volume of 73,152 shares), positioning the stock +0.86% above its 50-day simple moving average ($33.84) and +19.63% above its 200-day simple moving average ($28.53). Across its 52-week range of $21.21 to $35.07, BOW sits at the 93.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 52.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±1.8% ($33.52 to $34.74).

BOW Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), BOW converted $551.6M of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $326.0M in free cash flow (59.1% FCF margin).

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