Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / BLBD / financials

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Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$56.35 -1.43% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)

Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) earns a Roarable Rating of A- (Buy) with 81/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (21% profit margin, 85% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE A- • BUY Cap $1.77B

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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

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RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • A-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B+ · Rk A-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+10.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BLBD)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.6%

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How BLBD Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$176.2M (11.9% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $1.13B

FY24

Rev $1.35B

FY25

Rev $1.48B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$1.48B	20.5%	11.3%	$127.7M	$176.2M	95%
FY 2024	$1.35B	19%	10.3%	$105.5M	$111.1M	83.1%
FY 2023	$1.13B	20.5%	4.6%	$23.8M	$119.9M	85%

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring BLBD)

✓Walkthrough of BLBD's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
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BLBD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -12.10%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $55.58H $56.36L $54.66C $56.35VOL 486.4K

RES: $86.10SUP: $52.79SMA50: $58.62SMA200: $63.18

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BLBD Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BLBD Butterfly Map → + Track BLBD →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

5.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +9.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BLBD today. View full Setup Ledger →

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No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BLBD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

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DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BLBD)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #20 of 1011 ⚔️ HYLN vs BLBD Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (BLBD vs. HYLN, MLR, SCAG, GP)

Industry: Construction/Ag Equipment/Trucks (14 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) ranks #20 by composite RQD confidence (81/100, grade A-) and #433 by equity capitalization ($1.77B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BLBD leads on earnings valuation at 13.8x trailing P/E, while BLBD leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and 20.5% gross margin. BLBD currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 81/100 (A-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
BLBD ACTIVE Blue Bird Corporation	A-	81/100	13.8x	20.5%	85.0%	-1.43%	$1.77B	Benchmark Subject
HYLN Hyliion Holdings Corp. (Class A)	D-	36/100	—	4.9%	-30.6%	+1.78%	$612.6M	/hyln-vs-blbd →
MLR Miller Industries Inc.	D+	58/100	25.7x	15.2%	5.5%	+0.75%	$591.8M	/mlr-vs-blbd →
SCAG Scage Future	D	50/100	—	-6.4%	—	+2.32%	$10.6M	/scag-vs-blbd →
GP GreenPower Motor Company Inc.	D	47/100	—	—	—	-8.46%	$2.5M	/gp-vs-blbd →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-27 • CIK 0001589526

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-27), Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) reported GAAP revenue of $1.48B (+9.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.35B , and +30.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $127.7M, operating cash flow of $176.2M, and free cash flow of $176.2M (+58.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, BLBD closed FY2025 with $642.3M in total assets against $84.2M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-09-27	$1.48B	$127.7M	$176.2M	$176.2M	$642.3M	$84.2M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-09-28	$1.35B	$105.5M	$111.1M	$111.1M	$535.2M	$88.8M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-09-30	$1.13B	$23.8M	$119.9M	$119.9M	—	—

3. BLBD Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BLBD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ: BLBD) is rated A- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 81/100 at a spot price of $56.35 (-1.43% 1D, market cap $1.77B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 18/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 19/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, BLBD ranks #20 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BLBD compare to HYLN and MLR in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Construction/Ag Equipment/Trucks), BLBD carries a Roarable A- (81/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 13.8x, gross margin of 20.5%, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, HYLN (Hyliion Holdings Corp. (Class A)) holds a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -30.6%, cap $612.6M) and MLR (Miller Industries Inc.) posts a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 25.7x, ROIC 5.5%, cap $591.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, BLBD leads on earnings multiple (13.8x) while BLBD leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BLBD?

Per BLBD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-27, CIK 0001589526), Blue Bird Corporation generated $1.48B in revenue (+9.9% YoY), $127.7M in net income, and $176.2M in free cash flow against $642.3M in total assets and $84.2M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (21% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BLBD trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BLBD last traded at $56.35 (-1.43% on volume of 403,369 shares), positioning the stock -3.87% below its 50-day simple moving average ($58.62) and -10.81% below its 200-day simple moving average ($63.18). Across its 52-week range of $46.14 to $83.39, BLBD sits at the 27.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 41.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.6% ($52.63 to $60.07).

BLBD Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), BLBD converted $1.5B of revenue into a 20.5% gross margin, 11.3% operating margin, and $176.2M in free cash flow (11.9% FCF margin).

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