Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / BLBD / earnings

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Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±6.6% Move

$56.35 -1.43% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $56.34

Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) earns a Roarable Rating of A- (Buy) with 81/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (21% profit margin, 85% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 81/100 (A-) historically ranked in the Top 8% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+8.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 71.6% hit rate) →

ROARABLE A- • BUY Cap $1.77B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on BLBD Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is BLBD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-01, Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ: BLBD) is rated A- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 81/100 at a spot price of $56.35 (-1.43% 1D, market cap $1.77B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 18/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 19/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, BLBD ranks #20 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does BLBD compare to HYLN and MLR in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Construction/Ag Equipment/Trucks), BLBD carries a Roarable A- (81/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 13.8x, gross margin of 20.5%, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, HYLN (Hyliion Holdings Corp. (Class A)) holds a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -30.6%, cap $612.6M) and MLR (Miller Industries Inc.) posts a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 25.7x, ROIC 5.5%, cap $591.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, BLBD leads on earnings multiple (13.8x) while BLBD leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BLBD?

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Per BLBD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-27, CIK 0001589526), Blue Bird Corporation generated $1.48B in revenue (+9.9% YoY), $127.7M in net income, and $176.2M in free cash flow against $642.3M in total assets and $84.2M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (21% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $56.34 (-0.02%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 19/20 (A+) • 11.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 81/100 (A-) historically ranked in the Top 8% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+8.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 71.6% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • A-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B+ · Rk A-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+10.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BLBD)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (81/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY BLBD SCORES 81/100 (A-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+19/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 11.9% FCF Margin ($176.2M FCF) & 20.5% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+19/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-10 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B$56.29+2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B+$57.39+0.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade A-$57.73-2.4% Next Q

Current

Grade A-$56.35+8.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B (73) → A- (81)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the BLBD Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 81/100 (A-) score, BLBD faces multiple-compression risk if 13.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 18.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($58.62) or 200D SMA ($63.18) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($62.18) toward Bear Floor ($46.21).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BLBD• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “BLBD Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 26, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 81%NO 19%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 26, 2026 (~54 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±6.6% Swing Band

±$3.72 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

BLBD Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 81/100

Trailing EPS: $4.07 • YoY Revenue Growth: 9.9%

Model Bullish Setup (81/100)Model Risk Weight (19/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-09-27	$1.48B	$127.7M	$176.2M	20.5%
FY 2024	2024-09-28	$1.35B	$105.5M	$111.1M	19%
FY 2023	2023-09-30	$1.13B	$23.8M	$119.9M	20.5%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating BLBD & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on BLBD
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

BLBD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -12.10%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $55.58H $56.36L $54.66C $56.35VOL 486.4K

RES: $86.10SUP: $52.79SMA50: $58.62SMA200: $63.18

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BLBD Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BLBD Butterfly Map → + Track BLBD →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

5.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +9.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BLBD today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BLBD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BLBD today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BLBD)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #20 of 1011 ⚔️ HYLN vs BLBD Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (BLBD vs. HYLN, MLR, SCAG, GP)

Industry: Construction/Ag Equipment/Trucks (14 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) ranks #20 by composite RQD confidence (81/100, grade A-) and #433 by equity capitalization ($1.77B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BLBD leads on earnings valuation at 13.8x trailing P/E, while BLBD leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and 20.5% gross margin. BLBD currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 81/100 (A-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
BLBD ACTIVE Blue Bird Corporation	A-	81/100	13.8x	20.5%	85.0%	-1.43%	$1.77B	Benchmark Subject
HYLN Hyliion Holdings Corp. (Class A)	D-	36/100	—	4.9%	-30.6%	+1.78%	$612.6M	/hyln-vs-blbd →
MLR Miller Industries Inc.	D+	58/100	25.7x	15.2%	5.5%	+0.75%	$591.8M	/mlr-vs-blbd →
SCAG Scage Future	D	50/100	—	-6.4%	—	+2.32%	$10.6M	/scag-vs-blbd →
GP GreenPower Motor Company Inc.	D	47/100	—	—	—	-8.46%	$2.5M	/gp-vs-blbd →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-27 • CIK 0001589526

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-27), Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) reported GAAP revenue of $1.48B (+9.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.35B , and +30.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $127.7M, operating cash flow of $176.2M, and free cash flow of $176.2M (+58.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, BLBD closed FY2025 with $642.3M in total assets against $84.2M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-09-27	$1.48B	$127.7M	$176.2M	$176.2M	$642.3M	$84.2M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-09-28	$1.35B	$105.5M	$111.1M	$111.1M	$535.2M	$88.8M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-09-30	$1.13B	$23.8M	$119.9M	$119.9M	—	—

3. BLBD Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BLBD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does BLBD compare to HYLN and MLR in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BLBD?

Where is BLBD trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BLBD last traded at $56.35 (-1.43% on volume of 403,369 shares), positioning the stock -3.87% below its 50-day simple moving average ($58.62) and -10.81% below its 200-day simple moving average ($63.18). Across its 52-week range of $46.14 to $83.39, BLBD sits at the 27.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 41.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.6% ($52.63 to $60.07).

BLBD Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is BLBD's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 26, 2026.

How much is BLBD stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±6.6% event move for BLBD, spanning a range between $52.63 and $60.07.

Direct Sub-Reports: BLBD RQD Cockpit BLBD 12M Forecast BLBD Earnings & Move BLBD Dividends & DRIP BLBD Insiders & 13F BLBD Whale Options BLBD Profit Sankey BLBD News & Why