Stock Ratings / Financials / BHRB / forecast

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Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp. (BHRB) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$71.08 +0.88% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $71.06

Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp. (BHRB) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 61/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 61/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.43B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $71.06 (-0.03%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 2.4% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 61/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C- · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BHRB)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (61/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY BHRB SCORES 61/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (21% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$68.88+1.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$69.69+1.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$70.70+0.5% Next Q

Current

Grade C-$71.08+0.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (53) → C- (61)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the BHRB Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 61/100 (C-) score, BHRB faces multiple-compression risk if 12.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($70.34) or 200D SMA ($67.47) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($72.04) toward Bear Floor ($56.19).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BHRB• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “BHRB Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 61%NO 39%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your BHRB Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $71.08: 140.7 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $56.19

$7,905

$-2,095 (-20.9%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $72.04

$10,135

+$135 (+1.4%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $85.01

$11,960

+$1,960 (+19.6%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$75	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	BUY	$80	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$64	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (BHRB Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

BHRB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +10.53%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $71.65H $71.77L $70.20C $71.08VOL 112.3K

RES: $72.22SUP: $65.75SMA50: $70.34SMA200: $67.47

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BHRB Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BHRB Butterfly Map → + Track BHRB →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

2.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BHRB today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BHRB. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BHRB today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BHRB)

Financials Rank #463 of 1096 ⚔️ WABC vs BHRB Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (BHRB vs. WABC, TMP, PEBO, LKFN)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp. (BHRB) ranks #463 by composite RQD confidence (61/100, grade C-) and #500 by equity capitalization ($1.43B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TMP leads on earnings valuation at 9.1x trailing P/E, while TMP leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 17.2% ROIC and — gross margin. PEBO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with BHRB at 61/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
BHRB ACTIVE Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp.	C-	61/100	12.2x	—	13.7%	+0.88%	$1.43B	Benchmark Subject
WABC Westamerica Bancorporation	C	63/100	12.2x	—	12.4%	+0.79%	$1.42B	/wabc-vs-bhrb →
TMP Tompkins Financial Corporation	C-	61/100	9.1x	—	17.2%	+0.53%	$1.46B	/tmp-vs-bhrb →
PEBO Peoples Bancorp Inc.	B	72/100	13.1x	—	10.5%	+1.09%	$1.39B	/pebo-vs-bhrb →
LKFN Lakeland Financial Corporation	C	64/100	14.6x	—	13.6%	+1.03%	$1.51B	/lkfn-vs-bhrb →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001964333

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp. (BHRB) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $117.3M, operating cash flow of $107.9M, and free cash flow of $96.2M (+18.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, BHRB closed FY2025 with $7.92B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$117.3M	$107.9M	$96.2M	$7.92B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$35.7M	$85.8M	$81.2M	$7.81B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$22.7M	$42.5M	$42.5M	—	—

3. BHRB Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BHRB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp. (NASDAQ: BHRB) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 61/100 at a spot price of $71.08 (+0.88% 1D, market cap $1.43B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, BHRB ranks #463 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BHRB compare to WABC and TMP in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), BHRB carries a Roarable C- (61/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 13.7%. By comparison, WABC (Westamerica Bancorporation) holds a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 12.2x, ROIC 12.4%, cap $1.42B) and TMP (Tompkins Financial Corporation) posts a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 9.1x, ROIC 17.2%, cap $1.46B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TMP leads on earnings multiple (9.1x) while TMP leads on capital efficiency (17.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BHRB?

Per BHRB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001964333), Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp. generated $0 in revenue, $117.3M in net income, and $96.2M in free cash flow against $7.92B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BHRB trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BHRB last traded at $71.08 (+0.88% on volume of 168,444 shares), positioning the stock +1.05% above its 50-day simple moving average ($70.34) and +5.35% above its 200-day simple moving average ($67.47). Across its 52-week range of $58.31 to $75.09, BHRB sits at the 76.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 52.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.6% ($67.81 to $74.35).

BHRB Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is BHRB's 12-month stock price target?

Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp. (BHRB) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $72.04 (+1.4% from $71.08), with a bull-case target of $85.01 and a bear-case floor of $56.19.

Is BHRB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates BHRB C- (Hold — HOLD) with an RQD Confidence score of 61/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: BHRB RQD Cockpit BHRB 12M Forecast BHRB Earnings & Move BHRB Dividends & DRIP BHRB Insiders & 13F BHRB Whale Options BHRB Profit Sankey BHRB News & Why