Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / BH / financials

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Biglari Holdings Inc. (Class B) (BH) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$390.32 +1.47% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $390.61

Biglari Holdings Inc. (Class B) (BH) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 65/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $908.1M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $390.59 (+0.07%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 19.4% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk B-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.4%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (65/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY BH SCORES 65/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 62% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 52.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+14/20 pts (22% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±8.4% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 9 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$363.81+19.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$434.04-8.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$396.19-1.5% Next Q

Current

Grade C$390.32+1.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (57) → C (65)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the BH Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 65/100 (C) score, BH faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 56.7% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($376.39) or 200D SMA ($357.36) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($402.62) toward Bear Floor ($314.04).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “BH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 65%NO 35%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How BH Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$76.6M (19.4% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $365.3M

FY24

Rev $362.1M

FY25

Rev $395.3M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$395.3M	59.2%	0%	-$37.5M	$76.6M	-7.2%
FY 2024	$362.1M	60.4%	0%	-$3.8M	$19.1M	-7.2%
FY 2023	$365.3M	59.2%	0%	$54.9M	$73.0M	-7.2%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring BH)

✓Walkthrough of BH's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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BH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +26.22%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $392.3H $398.6L $389.4C $390.3VOL 76.6K

RES: $469.3SUP: $324.2SMA50: $376.4SMA200: $357.4

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BH Butterfly Map → + Track BH →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +9.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BH today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BH)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #286 of 1011 ⚔️ BLMN vs BH Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (BH vs. BLMN, FWRG, CNNE, HDL)

Industry: Restaurants (51 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Biglari Holdings Inc. (Class B) (BH) ranks #286 by composite RQD confidence (65/100, grade C) and #525 by equity capitalization ($908.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FWRG leads on earnings valuation at 39.7x trailing P/E, while BLMN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 10.7% ROIC and 70.2% gross margin. BH currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 65/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
BH ACTIVE Biglari Holdings Inc. (Class B)	C	65/100	—	59.2%	-7.2%	+1.47%	$908.1M	Benchmark Subject
BLMN Bloomin' Brands Inc.	D+	58/100	111.1x	70.2%	10.7%	+7.01%	$915.3M	/blmn-vs-bh →
FWRG First Watch Restaurant Group Inc.	D	45/100	39.7x	—	3.6%	+8.31%	$772.0M	/fwrg-vs-bh →
CNNE Cannae Holdings Inc.	D-	35/100	—	15.5%	-10.6%	+1.78%	$743.9M	/cnne-vs-bh →
HDL SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD.	D+	52/100	—	—	—	0.00%	$643.8M	/hdl-vs-bh →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001726173

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Biglari Holdings Inc. (Class B) (BH) reported GAAP revenue of $395.3M (+9.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $362.1M , and +8.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$37.5M, operating cash flow of $107.0M, and free cash flow of $76.6M (+301.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, BH closed FY2025 with $1.03B in total assets against $213.9M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$395.3M	-$37.5M	$107.0M	$76.6M	$1.03B	$213.9M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$362.1M	-$3.8M	$49.7M	$19.1M	$866.1M	$10.0M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$365.3M	$54.9M	$73.0M	$73.0M	—	—

3. BH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Biglari Holdings Inc. (Class B) (NYSE: BH) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $390.32 (+1.47% 1D, market cap $908.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, BH ranks #286 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BH compare to BLMN and FWRG in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), BH carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 59.2%, and ROIC of -7.2%. By comparison, BLMN (Bloomin' Brands Inc.) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 111.1x, ROIC 10.7%, cap $915.3M) and FWRG (First Watch Restaurant Group Inc.) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E 39.7x, ROIC 3.6%, cap $772.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, FWRG leads on earnings multiple (39.7x) while BLMN leads on capital efficiency (10.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BH?

Per BH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001726173), Biglari Holdings Inc. (Class B) generated $395.3M in revenue (+9.2% YoY), -$37.5M in net income, and $76.6M in free cash flow against $1.03B in total assets and $213.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BH last traded at $390.32 (+1.47% on volume of 47,961 shares), positioning the stock +3.70% above its 50-day simple moving average ($376.39) and +9.22% above its 200-day simple moving average ($357.36). Across its 52-week range of $234.92 to $483.60, BH sits at the 62.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 52.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.4% ($357.53 to $423.11).

BH Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Biglari Holdings Inc. (Class B) (BH)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), BH converted $395.3M of revenue into a 59.2% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $76.6M in free cash flow (19.4% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: BH RQD Cockpit BH 12M Forecast BH Earnings & Move BH Dividends & DRIP BH Insiders & 13F BH Whale Options BH Profit Sankey BH News & Why