Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (BAER) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 56/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 65% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)
Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (25) create a -12 pt regime headwind
Even with a 56/100 (D+) score, BAER faces multiple-compression risk if 5.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 39.6% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($0.80) or 200D SMA ($1.76) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($0.41) toward Bear Floor ($0.32).
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (BAER) dropped -4.71% to $0.41, trading at 2% of its 52-week range ($0.39 – $3.44). Stretched risk/reward at 6x P/E (42% profit margin) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
BELGRADE, Mont., Oct. 29, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (“Bridger” or the “Company”) (NASDAQ: BAER, BAERW), one of the nation’s leading aerial firefighting companies, today announced tha
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (BAER) doesn't possess the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the key expectations.
Agreement provides for dedicated deployment of three Basler BT-67 special mission aircraft configured with advanced sensor technology Establishes long-term, year-round recurring work for Bridger to support Metatek’s glob
Agreement provides dedicated deployment of three Basler BT-67 special mission aircraft to support Metatek's existing operations and additional eFTG systems on orderCalgary, Alberta--(Newsfile Corp. - October 27, 2026) -
Agreement provides for dedicated deployment of three Basler BT-67 special mission aircraft configured with advanced sensor technologyEstablishes long-term, year-round recurring work for Bridger to support Metatek’s
Gainers DSS (AMEX:DSS) shares moved upwards by 13.7% to $0.58 during Monday's pre-market session. The company's market cap stands at $5.3 million. Stem (NYSE:STEM) stock moved upwards by 8.63% to $3.27. The
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. +24.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BAER today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BAER. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (BAER) ranks #237 by composite RQD confidence (56/100, grade D+) and #429 by equity capitalization ($23.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BAER leads on earnings valuation at 5.8x trailing P/E, while UAVS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -32.4% ROIC and 51.8% gross margin. EVTL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 59/100 (C-) compared with BAER at 56/100 (D+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAER
ACTIVE
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. | D+ | 56/100 | 5.8x | 42.1% | — | -4.71% | $23.8M | Benchmark Subject |
| UAVS AgEagle Aerial Systems Inc. | E | 32/100 | — | 51.8% | -32.4% | -4.22% | $34.1M | /uavs-vs-baer → |
| DUKR DUKE Robotics Corp. | D | 47/100 | 11.7x | — | -35.0% | +3.66% | $14.6M | /dukr-vs-baer → |
| MOB Mobilicom Limited | D | 50/100 | — | — | — | -2.94% | $42.5M | /mob-vs-baer → |
| EVTL Vertical Aerospace Ltd. | C- | 59/100 | — | — | — | +3.44% | $73.4M | /evtl-vs-baer → |
In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (BAER) reported GAAP revenue of $122.8M (+24.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $98.6M , and +84.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $4.1M, operating cash flow of $16.7M, and free cash flow of -$64.2M (-1318.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, BAER closed FY2025 with $330.3M in total assets against $212.4M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $122.8M | $4.1M | $16.7M | -$64.2M | $330.3M | $212.4M |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $98.6M | -$15.6M | $9.4M | $5.3M | $290.8M | $202.5M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $66.7M | -$77.4M | -$26.8M | -$26.8M | — | — |
As of 2026-11-01, Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: BAER) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $0.41 (-4.71% 1D, market cap $23.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, BAER ranks #237 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Industrials sector (Aerospace), BAER carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 5.8x, gross margin of 42.1%, and ROIC of —. By comparison, UAVS (AgEagle Aerial Systems Inc.) holds a E grade (32/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -32.4%, cap $34.1M) and DUKR (DUKE Robotics Corp.) posts a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E 11.7x, ROIC -35.0%, cap $14.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, BAER leads on earnings multiple (5.8x) while UAVS leads on capital efficiency (-32.4% ROIC).
Per BAER's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001941536), Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. generated $122.8M in revenue (+24.6% YoY), $4.1M in net income, and -$64.2M in free cash flow against $330.3M in total assets and $212.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
BAER last traded at $0.41 (-4.71% on volume of 782,690 shares), positioning the stock -48.75% below its 50-day simple moving average ($0.80) and -76.70% below its 200-day simple moving average ($1.76). Across its 52-week range of $0.39 to $3.44, BAER sits at the 0.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 25.0 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.00 to $0.46).
Why BAER Stock dropped -4.71% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 6x P/E (42% profit margin) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
To protect compute speed and zero-delay Cboe BZX data quality for active members, our current $9.95/month Roarable Pro cohort is 100% full. Join the priority waiting list below and we will notify you the moment the next batch of Pro accounts opens (and lock in your $9.95/mo rate).
Link your personal ChatGPT, Claude Desktop, or Cursor via Roarable's Model Context Protocol (`mcp.roarable.com`) to query all 5,289 stocks, inspect Butterfly supply chains, and trade your `$100K Arena` account.
Interrogate SEC 10-K/10-Q filings on demand and ask custom ticker, valuation, or short-thesis questions directly to any of our 8 specialized AI Quant Analysts.
Command our AI agents to sort and sift 5,289 stocks by custom formulas, follow multi-indicator technical & cash-flow setups, and send you instant Email/SMS breakout & downgrade alerts.
Unlock sub-second Cboe BZX streaming quotes, pre-market/after-hours delta scanners, instant SEC Form 4 insider cluster alerts, and unlimited portfolio stress-testing.
All 8 Roarable Analysts (Mara Quenwick, Devon Kess, Gideon Vane, Eliott Vance, Sorel Thorne, Corin Hale, Tessa Rane, and Felix Orven) are proprietary AI Quant Analysts and automated algorithmic specialists — not human financial advisors, fiduciaries, or registered broker-dealers. While one-to-many daily stock ratings and briefings are free, custom 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alert agents, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections consume dedicated per-user compute and require a $9.95/month Roarable Pro membership. All AI outputs are for educational and research purposes only and never constitute individualized investment advice.
Enter your Google email below for instant 1-step account activation, daily A–E stock rating alerts, and immediate access to your $100,000.00 Paper Trading Arena account.