Stock Ratings / Industrials / BAER / financials

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Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (BAER) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

Q: How profitable is Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (BAER)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), BAER converted $122.8M of revenue into a 42.1% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $0 in free cash flow (0% FCF margin).

$0.41 -4.71% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.41

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (BAER) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 56/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $23.8M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.41 (-1.04%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BAER)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (56/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY BAER SCORES 56/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (27% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+13/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 65% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (25) create a -12 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$0.61-14.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$0.52-5.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$0.49-16.3% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$0.41-0.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (64) → D+ (56)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the BAER Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 56/100 (D+) score, BAER faces multiple-compression risk if 5.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 39.6% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($0.80) or 200D SMA ($1.76) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($0.41) toward Bear Floor ($0.32).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BAER• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “BAER Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 56%NO 44%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How BAER Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$0 (0% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $66.7M

FY24

Rev $98.6M

FY25

Rev $122.8M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$122.8M	42.1%	0%	$4.1M	-$64.2M	15%
FY 2024	$98.6M	41.7%	5.4%	-$15.6M	$5.3M	95%
FY 2023	$66.7M	42.1%	-80%	-$77.4M	-$26.8M	15%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring BAER)

✓Walkthrough of BAER's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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BAER // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -79.80%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $0.39H $0.43L $0.39C $0.41VOL 410.9K

RES: $1.31SUP: $0.17SMA50: $0.80SMA200: $1.76

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BAER Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BAER Butterfly Map → + Track BAER →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-11.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +24.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BAER today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BAER. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BAER today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BAER)

Industrials Rank #237 of 485 ⚔️ UAVS vs BAER Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (BAER vs. UAVS, DUKR, MOB, EVTL)

Industry: Aerospace (31 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (BAER) ranks #237 by composite RQD confidence (56/100, grade D+) and #429 by equity capitalization ($23.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BAER leads on earnings valuation at 5.8x trailing P/E, while UAVS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -32.4% ROIC and 51.8% gross margin. EVTL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 59/100 (C-) compared with BAER at 56/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
BAER ACTIVE Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc.	D+	56/100	5.8x	42.1%	—	-4.71%	$23.8M	Benchmark Subject
UAVS AgEagle Aerial Systems Inc.	E	32/100	—	51.8%	-32.4%	-4.22%	$34.1M	/uavs-vs-baer →
DUKR DUKE Robotics Corp.	D	47/100	11.7x	—	-35.0%	+3.66%	$14.6M	/dukr-vs-baer →
MOB Mobilicom Limited	D	50/100	—	—	—	-2.94%	$42.5M	/mob-vs-baer →
EVTL Vertical Aerospace Ltd.	C-	59/100	—	—	—	+3.44%	$73.4M	/evtl-vs-baer →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001941536

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (BAER) reported GAAP revenue of $122.8M (+24.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $98.6M , and +84.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $4.1M, operating cash flow of $16.7M, and free cash flow of -$64.2M (-1318.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, BAER closed FY2025 with $330.3M in total assets against $212.4M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$122.8M	$4.1M	$16.7M	-$64.2M	$330.3M	$212.4M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$98.6M	-$15.6M	$9.4M	$5.3M	$290.8M	$202.5M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$66.7M	-$77.4M	-$26.8M	-$26.8M	—	—

3. BAER Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BAER stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: BAER) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $0.41 (-4.71% 1D, market cap $23.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, BAER ranks #237 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BAER compare to UAVS and DUKR in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Aerospace), BAER carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 5.8x, gross margin of 42.1%, and ROIC of —. By comparison, UAVS (AgEagle Aerial Systems Inc.) holds a E grade (32/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -32.4%, cap $34.1M) and DUKR (DUKE Robotics Corp.) posts a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E 11.7x, ROIC -35.0%, cap $14.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, BAER leads on earnings multiple (5.8x) while UAVS leads on capital efficiency (-32.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BAER?

Per BAER's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001941536), Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. generated $122.8M in revenue (+24.6% YoY), $4.1M in net income, and -$64.2M in free cash flow against $330.3M in total assets and $212.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BAER trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BAER last traded at $0.41 (-4.71% on volume of 782,690 shares), positioning the stock -48.75% below its 50-day simple moving average ($0.80) and -76.70% below its 200-day simple moving average ($1.76). Across its 52-week range of $0.39 to $3.44, BAER sits at the 0.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 25.0 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.00 to $0.46).

BAER Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (BAER)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), BAER converted $122.8M of revenue into a 42.1% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $0 in free cash flow (0% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: BAER RQD Cockpit BAER 12M Forecast BAER Earnings & Move BAER Dividends & DRIP BAER Insiders & 13F BAER Whale Options BAER Profit Sankey BAER News & Why