Stock Ratings / Industrials / BAER / earnings

UAVS (32) DUKR (47) MOB (50) EVTL (59) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (BAER) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±12.5% Move

Q: When is BAER's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (BAER)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

Q: How much is BAER stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±12.5% event move for BAER, spanning a range between $1 and $0.46.

$0.41 -4.71% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.41

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (BAER) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 56/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $23.8M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on BAER Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is BAER stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

▼

As of 2026-11-01, Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: BAER) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $0.41 (-4.71% 1D, market cap $23.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, BAER ranks #237 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does BAER compare to UAVS and DUKR in the Industrials sector?

▼

Within the Industrials sector (Aerospace), BAER carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 5.8x, gross margin of 42.1%, and ROIC of —. By comparison, UAVS (AgEagle Aerial Systems Inc.) holds a E grade (32/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -32.4%, cap $34.1M) and DUKR (DUKE Robotics Corp.) posts a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E 11.7x, ROIC -35.0%, cap $14.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, BAER leads on earnings multiple (5.8x) while UAVS leads on capital efficiency (-32.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BAER?

▼

Per BAER's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001941536), Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. generated $122.8M in revenue (+24.6% YoY), $4.1M in net income, and -$64.2M in free cash flow against $330.3M in total assets and $212.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.41 (-1.04%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BAER)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (56/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY BAER SCORES 56/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (27% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+13/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 65% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (25) create a -12 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$0.61-14.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$0.52-5.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$0.49-16.3% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$0.41-0.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (64) → D+ (56)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the BAER Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 56/100 (D+) score, BAER faces multiple-compression risk if 5.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 39.6% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($0.80) or 200D SMA ($1.76) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($0.41) toward Bear Floor ($0.32).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BAER• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “BAER Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 56%NO 44%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±12.5% Swing Band

±$0.05 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

BAER Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 56/100

Trailing EPS: $0.17 • YoY Revenue Growth: 24.6%

Model Bullish Setup (56/100)Model Risk Weight (44/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$122.8M	$4.1M	-$64.2M	42.1%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$98.6M	-$15.6M	$5.3M	41.7%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$66.7M	-$77.4M	-$26.8M	42.1%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring BAER)

✓Walkthrough of BAER's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

BAER // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -79.80%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $0.39H $0.43L $0.39C $0.41VOL 410.9K

RES: $1.31SUP: $0.17SMA50: $0.80SMA200: $1.76

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BAER Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BAER Butterfly Map → + Track BAER →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-11.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +24.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BAER today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BAER. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BAER today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BAER)

Industrials Rank #237 of 485 ⚔️ UAVS vs BAER Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (BAER vs. UAVS, DUKR, MOB, EVTL)

Industry: Aerospace (31 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (BAER) ranks #237 by composite RQD confidence (56/100, grade D+) and #429 by equity capitalization ($23.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BAER leads on earnings valuation at 5.8x trailing P/E, while UAVS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -32.4% ROIC and 51.8% gross margin. EVTL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 59/100 (C-) compared with BAER at 56/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
BAER ACTIVE Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc.	D+	56/100	5.8x	42.1%	—	-4.71%	$23.8M	Benchmark Subject
UAVS AgEagle Aerial Systems Inc.	E	32/100	—	51.8%	-32.4%	-4.22%	$34.1M	/uavs-vs-baer →
DUKR DUKE Robotics Corp.	D	47/100	11.7x	—	-35.0%	+3.66%	$14.6M	/dukr-vs-baer →
MOB Mobilicom Limited	D	50/100	—	—	—	-2.94%	$42.5M	/mob-vs-baer →
EVTL Vertical Aerospace Ltd.	C-	59/100	—	—	—	+3.44%	$73.4M	/evtl-vs-baer →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001941536

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (BAER) reported GAAP revenue of $122.8M (+24.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $98.6M , and +84.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $4.1M, operating cash flow of $16.7M, and free cash flow of -$64.2M (-1318.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, BAER closed FY2025 with $330.3M in total assets against $212.4M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$122.8M	$4.1M	$16.7M	-$64.2M	$330.3M	$212.4M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$98.6M	-$15.6M	$9.4M	$5.3M	$290.8M	$202.5M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$66.7M	-$77.4M	-$26.8M	-$26.8M	—	—

3. BAER Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BAER stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does BAER compare to UAVS and DUKR in the Industrials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BAER?

Where is BAER trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BAER last traded at $0.41 (-4.71% on volume of 782,690 shares), positioning the stock -48.75% below its 50-day simple moving average ($0.80) and -76.70% below its 200-day simple moving average ($1.76). Across its 52-week range of $0.39 to $3.44, BAER sits at the 0.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 25.0 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.00 to $0.46).

BAER Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is BAER's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (BAER)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is BAER stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±12.5% event move for BAER, spanning a range between $1 and $0.46.

Direct Sub-Reports: BAER RQD Cockpit BAER 12M Forecast BAER Earnings & Move BAER Dividends & DRIP BAER Insiders & 13F BAER Whale Options BAER Profit Sankey BAER News & Why