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Why ASTH Stock slipped -0.14% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$36.62 -0.14% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $36.54
Astrana Health Inc. (ASTH) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 58/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID
Cap $1.82B
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief)
Is ASTH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-01, Astrana Health Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTH) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 58/100 at a spot price of $36.62 (-0.14% 1D, market cap $1.82B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ASTH ranks #443 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does ASTH compare to AMN and NSP in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Professional Services), ASTH carries a Roarable D+ (58/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 75.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.6%. By comparison, AMN (AMN Healthcare Services Inc) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -7.2%, cap $1.82B) and NSP (Insperity Inc.) posts a E grade (20/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -8.9%, cap $1.77B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ICFI leads on earnings multiple (18.7x) while ICFI leads on capital efficiency (8.1% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ASTH?
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Per ASTH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001083446), Astrana Health Inc. generated $3.18B in revenue (+56.4% YoY), $24.0M in net income, and $104.5M in free cash flow against $2.22B in total assets and $990.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $36.54 (-0.22%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 3.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 58/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.7% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ASTH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (58/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ASTH SCORES 58/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+14/20 pts (24% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 55% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 46.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (22% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 3.3% FCF Margin ($104.5M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-11 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade B-$37.55-2% Next Q
66
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C+$36.81+1.7% Next Q
63
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C$37.45-2.2% Next Q
61
CurrentGrade D+$36.62+0% Hist 90D α
58
Trajectory: B- (66) → D+ (58)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ASTH Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 58/100 (D+) score, ASTH faces multiple-compression risk if 75.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Priced at 76x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($37.09) or 200D SMA ($33.84) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($36.62) toward Bear Floor ($28.56).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ASTH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ASTH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why ASTH Stock slipped -0.14% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Astrana Health Inc. (ASTH) slipped -0.14% to $36.62, trading at 55% of its 52-week range ($18.08 – $51.6). Stretched risk/reward at 76x P/E (5% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 55% of its 52-week range ($18.08 – $51.6) with RSI-14 at 46.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±8.6% around $36.62 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D+ (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $104.5M annual free cash flow.
Live ASTH Headlines & Catalysts
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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ASTH)
- ✓Walkthrough of ASTH's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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ASTH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +7.26%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $36.62H $36.76L $35.84C $36.62VOL 236.7K
RES: $39.48SUP: $30.83SMA50: $37.09SMA200: $33.84
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
ASTH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +56.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ASTH today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ASTH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ASTH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ASTH)
Consumer Discretionary Rank #443 of 1011
⚔️ AMN vs ASTH Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (ASTH vs. AMN, NSP, ICFI, MAN)
Industry: Professional Services (48 Tracked Issuers)Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Astrana Health Inc. (ASTH) ranks #443 by composite RQD confidence (58/100, grade D+) and #426 by equity capitalization ($1.82B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ICFI leads on earnings valuation at 18.7x trailing P/E, while ICFI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 8.1% ROIC and 37.2% gross margin. ICFI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with ASTH at 58/100 (D+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASTH
ACTIVE
Astrana Health Inc. | D+ | 58/100 | 75.7x | — | 4.6% | -0.14% | $1.82B | Benchmark Subject |
| AMN AMN Healthcare Services Inc | D+ | 53/100 | — | 28.3% | -7.2% | +0.47% | $1.82B | /amn-vs-asth → |
| NSP Insperity Inc. | E | 20/100 | — | 13.2% | -8.9% | -10.38% | $1.77B | /nsp-vs-asth → |
| ICFI ICF International Inc. | B- | 71/100 | 18.7x | 37.2% | 8.1% | +1.25% | $1.72B | /icfi-vs-asth → |
| MAN ManpowerGroup | D- | 41/100 | — | 16.7% | 5.3% | -0.57% | $2.12B | /man-vs-asth → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001083446In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Astrana Health Inc. (ASTH) reported GAAP revenue of $3.18B (+56.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.03B , and +129.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $24.0M, operating cash flow of $114.6M, and free cash flow of $104.5M (+136.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, ASTH closed FY2025 with $2.22B in total assets against $990.9M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.54, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $3.18B | $24.0M | $114.6M | $104.5M | $2.22B | $990.9M |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $2.03B | $50.0M | $52.2M | $44.2M | $1.35B | $425.3M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $1.39B | $58.0M | $68.2M | $68.2M | — | — |
3. ASTH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs ASTH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Astrana Health Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTH) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 58/100 at a spot price of $36.62 (-0.14% 1D, market cap $1.82B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ASTH ranks #443 in composite RQD confidence.
How does ASTH compare to AMN and NSP in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Professional Services), ASTH carries a Roarable D+ (58/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 75.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.6%. By comparison, AMN (AMN Healthcare Services Inc) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -7.2%, cap $1.82B) and NSP (Insperity Inc.) posts a E grade (20/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -8.9%, cap $1.77B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ICFI leads on earnings multiple (18.7x) while ICFI leads on capital efficiency (8.1% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ASTH?
Per ASTH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001083446), Astrana Health Inc. generated $3.18B in revenue (+56.4% YoY), $24.0M in net income, and $104.5M in free cash flow against $2.22B in total assets and $990.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is ASTH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
ASTH last traded at $36.62 (-0.14% on volume of 256,163 shares), positioning the stock -1.27% below its 50-day simple moving average ($37.09) and +8.22% above its 200-day simple moving average ($33.84). Across its 52-week range of $18.08 to $51.60, ASTH sits at the 55.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 46.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.6% ($33.47 to $39.77).
ASTH Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is ASTH stock moving today?
Why ASTH Stock slipped -0.14% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 76x P/E (5% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.