Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / ASTH / forecast

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Astrana Health Inc. (ASTH) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$36.62 -0.14% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $36.54

Astrana Health Inc. (ASTH) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 58/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 58/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.82B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $36.54 (-0.22%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 3.3% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 58/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.7% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ASTH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (58/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ASTH SCORES 58/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+14/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 55% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 46.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 3.3% FCF Margin ($104.5M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-11 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B-$37.55-2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$36.81+1.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$37.45-2.2% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$36.62+0% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B- (66) → D+ (58)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ASTH Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 58/100 (D+) score, ASTH faces multiple-compression risk if 75.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Priced at 76x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($37.09) or 200D SMA ($33.84) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($36.62) toward Bear Floor ($28.56).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ASTH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ASTH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 58%NO 42%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your ASTH Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $36.62: 273.1 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $28.56

$7,799

$-2,201 (-22.0%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $36.62

$10,000

+$0 (+0.0%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $54.18

$14,795

+$4,795 (+48.0%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$38	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$51	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$33	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ASTH)

✓Walkthrough of ASTH's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

ASTH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +7.26%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $36.62H $36.76L $35.84C $36.62VOL 236.7K

RES: $39.48SUP: $30.83SMA50: $37.09SMA200: $33.84

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ASTH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ASTH Butterfly Map → + Track ASTH →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +56.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ASTH today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ASTH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ASTH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ASTH)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #443 of 1011 ⚔️ AMN vs ASTH Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (ASTH vs. AMN, NSP, ICFI, MAN)

Industry: Professional Services (48 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Astrana Health Inc. (ASTH) ranks #443 by composite RQD confidence (58/100, grade D+) and #426 by equity capitalization ($1.82B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ICFI leads on earnings valuation at 18.7x trailing P/E, while ICFI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 8.1% ROIC and 37.2% gross margin. ICFI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with ASTH at 58/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ASTH ACTIVE Astrana Health Inc.	D+	58/100	75.7x	—	4.6%	-0.14%	$1.82B	Benchmark Subject
AMN AMN Healthcare Services Inc	D+	53/100	—	28.3%	-7.2%	+0.47%	$1.82B	/amn-vs-asth →
NSP Insperity Inc.	E	20/100	—	13.2%	-8.9%	-10.38%	$1.77B	/nsp-vs-asth →
ICFI ICF International Inc.	B-	71/100	18.7x	37.2%	8.1%	+1.25%	$1.72B	/icfi-vs-asth →
MAN ManpowerGroup	D-	41/100	—	16.7%	5.3%	-0.57%	$2.12B	/man-vs-asth →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001083446

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Astrana Health Inc. (ASTH) reported GAAP revenue of $3.18B (+56.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.03B , and +129.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $24.0M, operating cash flow of $114.6M, and free cash flow of $104.5M (+136.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, ASTH closed FY2025 with $2.22B in total assets against $990.9M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.54, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$3.18B	$24.0M	$114.6M	$104.5M	$2.22B	$990.9M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$2.03B	$50.0M	$52.2M	$44.2M	$1.35B	$425.3M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.39B	$58.0M	$68.2M	$68.2M	—	—

3. ASTH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ASTH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Astrana Health Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTH) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 58/100 at a spot price of $36.62 (-0.14% 1D, market cap $1.82B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ASTH ranks #443 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ASTH compare to AMN and NSP in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Professional Services), ASTH carries a Roarable D+ (58/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 75.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.6%. By comparison, AMN (AMN Healthcare Services Inc) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -7.2%, cap $1.82B) and NSP (Insperity Inc.) posts a E grade (20/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -8.9%, cap $1.77B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ICFI leads on earnings multiple (18.7x) while ICFI leads on capital efficiency (8.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ASTH?

Per ASTH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001083446), Astrana Health Inc. generated $3.18B in revenue (+56.4% YoY), $24.0M in net income, and $104.5M in free cash flow against $2.22B in total assets and $990.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ASTH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ASTH last traded at $36.62 (-0.14% on volume of 256,163 shares), positioning the stock -1.27% below its 50-day simple moving average ($37.09) and +8.22% above its 200-day simple moving average ($33.84). Across its 52-week range of $18.08 to $51.60, ASTH sits at the 55.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 46.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.6% ($33.47 to $39.77).

ASTH Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is ASTH's 12-month stock price target?

Astrana Health Inc. (ASTH) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $36.62 (+0% from $36.62), with a bull-case target of $54.18 and a bear-case floor of $28.56.

Is ASTH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates ASTH D+ (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 58/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: ASTH RQD Cockpit ASTH 12M Forecast ASTH Earnings & Move ASTH Dividends & DRIP ASTH Insiders & 13F ASTH Whale Options ASTH Profit Sankey ASTH News & Why