Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / ASTH / dividends

AMN (56) NSP (28) ICFI (73) MAN (37) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Astrana Health Inc. (ASTH) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$36.62 -0.14% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $36.54

Astrana Health Inc. (ASTH) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 57/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.82B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ASTH Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ASTH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Astrana Health Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTH) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $36.62 (-0.14% 1D, market cap $1.82B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ASTH ranks #412 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ASTH compare to AMN and NSP in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Professional Services), ASTH carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 75.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.6%. By comparison, AMN (AMN Healthcare Services Inc) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -7.2%, cap $1.82B) and NSP (Insperity Inc.) posts a E grade (28/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -8.9%, cap $1.77B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ICFI leads on earnings multiple (18.7x) while ICFI leads on capital efficiency (8.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ASTH?

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Per ASTH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001083446), Astrana Health Inc. generated $3.18B in revenue (+56.4% YoY), $24.0M in net income, and $104.5M in free cash flow against $2.22B in total assets and $990.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $36.54 (-0.22%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 3.3% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ASTH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (57/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ASTH SCORES 57/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 3.3% FCF Margin ($104.5M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+13/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 55% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 47.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-11 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$38.40-3.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$36.90+0.9% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$37.23-1.6% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$36.62-0.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (65) → D+ (57)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ASTH Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 57/100 (D+) score, ASTH faces multiple-compression risk if 75.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Priced at 76x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($37.03) or 200D SMA ($33.88) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($36.46) toward Bear Floor ($28.44).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ASTH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ASTH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 57%NO 43%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD

2.23% Total Yield

0.43% Cash ($0.16/yr) + 1.8% Buybacks

PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER

88/100 • FORTRESS PAYOUT

FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO

14% of FCF

8 consecutive years of payout growth

INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (16.7% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years → $46,850

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $1,045/yr

Starting Investment: $10,000

Compounding Horizon: 10 Years

$11.7K

Yr 1

$13.6K

Yr 2

$15.9K

Yr 3

$18.5K

Yr 4

$21.6K

Yr 5

$25.3K

Yr 6

$29.5K

Yr 7

$34.4K

Yr 8

$40.1K

Yr 9

$46.8K

Yr 10

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ASTH)

✓Walkthrough of ASTH's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

ASTH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +4.69%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-02O $36.67H $36.67L $36.62C $36.62VOL 256.2K

RES: $39.45SUP: $30.78SMA50: $37.03SMA200: $33.88

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ASTH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ASTH Butterfly Map → + Track ASTH →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +56.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ASTH today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ASTH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ASTH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ASTH)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #412 of 1011 ⚔️ AMN vs ASTH Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (ASTH vs. AMN, NSP, ICFI, MAN)

Industry: Professional Services (48 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Astrana Health Inc. (ASTH) ranks #412 by composite RQD confidence (57/100, grade D+) and #426 by equity capitalization ($1.82B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ICFI leads on earnings valuation at 18.7x trailing P/E, while ICFI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 8.1% ROIC and 37.2% gross margin. ICFI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with ASTH at 57/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ASTH ACTIVE Astrana Health Inc.	D+	57/100	75.7x	—	4.6%	-0.14%	$1.82B	Benchmark Subject
AMN AMN Healthcare Services Inc	D+	56/100	—	28.3%	-7.2%	+0.47%	$1.82B	/amn-vs-asth →
NSP Insperity Inc.	E	28/100	—	13.2%	-8.9%	-10.38%	$1.77B	/nsp-vs-asth →
ICFI ICF International Inc.	B	73/100	18.7x	37.2%	8.1%	+1.25%	$1.72B	/icfi-vs-asth →
MAN ManpowerGroup	D-	37/100	—	16.7%	5.3%	-0.57%	$2.12B	/man-vs-asth →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001083446

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Astrana Health Inc. (ASTH) reported GAAP revenue of $3.18B (+56.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.03B , and +129.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $24.0M, operating cash flow of $114.6M, and free cash flow of $104.5M (+136.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, ASTH closed FY2025 with $2.22B in total assets against $990.9M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.54, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$3.18B	$24.0M	$114.6M	$104.5M	$2.22B	$990.9M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$2.03B	$50.0M	$52.2M	$44.2M	$1.35B	$425.3M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.39B	$58.0M	$68.2M	$68.2M	—	—

3. ASTH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ASTH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does ASTH compare to AMN and NSP in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ASTH?

Where is ASTH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ASTH last traded at $36.62 (-0.14% on volume of 256,163 shares), positioning the stock -1.11% below its 50-day simple moving average ($37.03) and +8.09% above its 200-day simple moving average ($33.88). Across its 52-week range of $18.08 to $51.60, ASTH sits at the 55.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 47.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.2% ($33.62 to $39.62).

ASTH Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Does ASTH pay a dividend and is it safe?

Astrana Health Inc. (ASTH) offers a 0.43% cash dividend yield ($0.16 annualized) and 2.23% total shareholder yield including buybacks. Roarable rates its payout coverage as FORTRESS PAYOUT.

Direct Sub-Reports: ASTH RQD Cockpit ASTH 12M Forecast ASTH Earnings & Move ASTH Dividends & DRIP ASTH Insiders & 13F ASTH Whale Options ASTH Profit Sankey ASTH News & Why