MARKET WIREReuters • 2h ago
Iran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz - ReutersIran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz Reuters
Why ASC Stock surged +2.45% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$21.30 +2.45% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $21.45
Ardmore Shipping Corporation (ASC) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 71/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 7% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.
ROARABLE B- • BUY
Cap $869.1M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $21.44 (+0.68%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 26.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 71/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 14% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.4% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B-
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk B
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.9% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ASC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (71/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ASC SCORES 71/100 (B-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+18/20 pts (25% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 99% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 63.5 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (21% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)
Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 8 pts from forensic ceiling
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C+$19.28-1.8% Next Q
63
Q2 (-2Q)Grade B-$18.93+5.8% Next Q
66
Q3 (-1Q)Grade B-$20.03+6.3% Next Q
68
CurrentGrade B-$21.30+6.8% Hist 90D α
71
Trajectory: C+ (63) → B- (71)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ASC Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 71/100 (B-) score, ASC faces multiple-compression risk if 21.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($18.82) or 200D SMA ($16.61) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($22.55) toward Bear Floor ($17.47).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ASC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ASC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why ASC Stock surged +2.45% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Ardmore Shipping Corporation (ASC) surged +2.45% to $21.30, trading at 99% of its 52-week range ($10.31 – $21.35). High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 7% return on capital) with steady institutional support.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 99% of its 52-week range ($10.31 – $21.35) with RSI-14 at 63.5 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±9% around $21.30 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable B- (Buy) backed by 52% gross margin and $81.6M annual free cash flow.
Live ASC Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 4h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
MARKET WIRECNBC • 4h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 6h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 8h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 8h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 9h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (ASC Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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ASC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +20.20%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-10-30O $21.11H $21.30L $20.70C $21.30VOL 460.8K
RES: $21.45SUP: $18.36SMA50: $18.82SMA200: $16.61
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
ASC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
14.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. -23.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ASC today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ASC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ASC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ASC)
Consumer Discretionary Rank #161 of 1011
⚔️ SB vs ASC Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (ASC vs. SB, HSHP, GNK, CCEC)
Industry: Marine Transportation (67 Tracked Issuers)Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ardmore Shipping Corporation (ASC) ranks #161 by composite RQD confidence (71/100, grade B-) and #528 by equity capitalization ($869.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CCEC leads on earnings valuation at 7.0x trailing P/E, while HSHP leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 6.8% ROIC and 78.8% gross margin. ASC currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 71/100 (B-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASC
ACTIVE
Ardmore Shipping Corporation | B- | 71/100 | 21.2x | — | 6.5% | +2.45% | $869.1M | Benchmark Subject |
| SB Safe Bulkers Inc ($0.001 par value) | B- | 70/100 | 24.1x | — | 4.6% | +0.74% | $927.7M | /sb-vs-asc → |
| HSHP Himalaya Shipping Ltd. | D+ | 58/100 | 44.4x | 78.8% | 6.8% | -0.47% | $785.4M | /hshp-vs-asc → |
| GNK Genco Shipping & Trading Limited New (Marshall Islands) | D+ | 58/100 | — | — | 0.6% | +4.02% | $1.16B | /gnk-vs-asc → |
| CCEC Capital Clean Energy Carriers Corp. Common Share | D | 47/100 | 7.0x | — | 4.9% | -3.28% | $1.19B | /ccec-vs-asc → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001577437In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Ardmore Shipping Corporation (ASC) reported GAAP revenue of $310.2M (-23.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $405.8M , and -21.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $41.0M, operating cash flow of $81.6M, and free cash flow of $81.6M (-49.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, ASC closed FY2025 with $788.7M in total assets against $127.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $310.2M | $41.0M | $81.6M | $81.6M | $788.7M | $127.0M |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $405.8M | $133.0M | $160.4M | $160.4M | $704.8M | $38.8M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $396.0M | $116.8M | $159.6M | $159.6M | — | — |
3. ASC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs ASC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Ardmore Shipping Corporation (NYSE: ASC) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 71/100 at a spot price of $21.30 (+2.45% 1D, market cap $869.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 18/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ASC ranks #161 in composite RQD confidence.
How does ASC compare to SB and HSHP in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Marine Transportation), ASC carries a Roarable B- (71/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 21.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 6.5%. By comparison, SB (Safe Bulkers Inc ($0.001 par value)) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 24.1x, ROIC 4.6%, cap $927.7M) and HSHP (Himalaya Shipping Ltd.) posts a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 44.4x, ROIC 6.8%, cap $785.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CCEC leads on earnings multiple (7.0x) while HSHP leads on capital efficiency (6.8% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ASC?
Per ASC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001577437), Ardmore Shipping Corporation generated $310.2M in revenue (-23.6% YoY), $41.0M in net income, and $81.6M in free cash flow against $788.7M in total assets and $127.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is ASC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
ASC last traded at $21.30 (+2.45% on volume of 622,993 shares), positioning the stock +13.18% above its 50-day simple moving average ($18.82) and +28.24% above its 200-day simple moving average ($16.61). Across its 52-week range of $10.31 to $21.35, ASC sits at the 99.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 63.5 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.0% ($19.38 to $23.22).
ASC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is ASC stock moving today?
Why ASC Stock surged +2.45% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 7% return on capital) with steady institutional support.