Stock Ratings / Financials / ARX / forecast

BWIN (46) CRVL (75) NP (64) HGTY (75) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Accelerant Holdings (Class A) (ARX) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$19.82 0.00% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $19.78

Accelerant Holdings (Class A) (ARX) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 64/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $4.30B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ARX Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ARX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Accelerant Holdings (Class A) (NYSE: ARX) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $19.82 (0.00% 1D, market cap $4.30B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, ARX ranks #308 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ARX compare to BWIN and CRVL in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Specialty Insurers), ARX carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, BWIN (The Baldwin Insurance Group Inc.) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 3.6%, cap $4.44B) and CRVL (CorVel Corp.) posts a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 37.6x, ROIC 29.4%, cap $4.15B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HGTY leads on earnings multiple (37.5x) while HGTY leads on capital efficiency (67.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARX?

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Per ARX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001997350), Accelerant Holdings (Class A) generated $912.9M in revenue (+51.5% YoY), $0 in net income, and $445.1M in free cash flow against $8.26B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $19.78 (-0.19%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 48.8% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.7% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ARX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±1.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (64/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ARX SCORES 64/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (25% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 99% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 66.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+15/20 pts (23% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±1.8% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 10 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$19.77+0.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$19.83-0.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$19.82+0% Next Q

Current

Grade C$19.82+1.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (56) → C (64)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ARX Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 64/100 (C) score, ARX faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($19.77) or 200D SMA ($15.01) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($20.36) toward Bear Floor ($15.88).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ARX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ARX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 64%NO 36%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your ARX Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $19.82: 504.5 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $15.88

$8,012

$-1,988 (-19.9%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $20.36

$10,272

+$272 (+2.7%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $24.02

$12,119

+$2,119 (+21.2%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$21	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	BUY	$23	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$18	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (ARX Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

ARX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +52.70%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-02O $19.81H $19.82L $19.81C $19.82VOL 582.7K

RES: $19.85SUP: $8.90SMA50: $19.77SMA200: $15.01

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ARX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ARX Butterfly Map → + Track ARX →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +51.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ARX today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ARX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ARX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ARX)

Financials Rank #308 of 1096 ⚔️ BWIN vs ARX Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (ARX vs. BWIN, CRVL, NP, HGTY)

Industry: Specialty Insurers (33 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Accelerant Holdings (Class A) (ARX) ranks #308 by composite RQD confidence (64/100, grade C) and #304 by equity capitalization ($4.30B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, HGTY leads on earnings valuation at 37.5x trailing P/E, while HGTY leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 67.4% ROIC and — gross margin. CRVL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 75/100 (B) compared with ARX at 64/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ARX ACTIVE Accelerant Holdings (Class A)	C	64/100	—	—	—	0.00%	$4.30B	Benchmark Subject
BWIN The Baldwin Insurance Group Inc.	D	46/100	—	—	3.6%	+0.31%	$4.44B	/bwin-vs-arx →
CRVL CorVel Corp.	B	75/100	37.6x	—	29.4%	+0.04%	$4.15B	/crvl-vs-arx →
NP Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A)	C	64/100	106.4x	—	28.2%	+1.28%	$3.98B	/np-vs-arx →
HGTY Hagerty Inc. (Class A)	B	75/100	37.5x	—	67.4%	+0.78%	$5.60B	/hgty-vs-arx →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001997350

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Accelerant Holdings (Class A) (ARX) reported GAAP revenue of $912.9M (+51.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $602.6M , and +165.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $445.1M, and free cash flow of $445.1M (-43.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, ARX closed FY2025 with $8.26B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$912.9M	$0	$445.1M	$445.1M	$8.26B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$602.6M	$0	$785.7M	$785.7M	$6.09B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$344.0M	$0	$290.0M	$290.0M	—	—

3. ARX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ARX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does ARX compare to BWIN and CRVL in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARX?

Where is ARX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ARX last traded at $19.82 (0.00% on volume of 573,233 shares), positioning the stock +0.25% above its 50-day simple moving average ($19.77) and +32.05% above its 200-day simple moving average ($15.01). Across its 52-week range of $9.18 to $19.90, ARX sits at the 99.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 66.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±1.8% ($19.46 to $20.18).

ARX Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is ARX's 12-month stock price target?

Accelerant Holdings (Class A) (ARX) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $20.36 (+2.7% from $19.82), with a bull-case target of $24.02 and a bear-case floor of $15.88.

Is ARX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates ARX C (Hold — HOLD) with an RQD Confidence score of 64/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: ARX RQD Cockpit ARX 12M Forecast ARX Earnings & Move ARX Dividends & DRIP ARX Insiders & 13F ARX Whale Options ARX Profit Sankey ARX News & Why