Stock Ratings / Financials / ARX / financials

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Accelerant Holdings (Class A) (ARX) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$19.82 +0.05% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $19.78

Accelerant Holdings (Class A) (ARX) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 53/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 53/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $4.30B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $19.78 (-0.18%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 48.8% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 53/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ARX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±1.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (53/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ARX SCORES 53/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 99% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 66.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+12/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 60% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$19.80-0.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$19.75+0.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$19.77+0.3% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$19.82-0.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (45) → D+ (53)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ARX Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ARX currently carries a cautious 53/100 (D+) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (8/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($19.76) and Max Pain ($20.81) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $22.86.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ARX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ARX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 53%NO 47%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How ARX Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$445.1M (48.8% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $344.0M

FY24

Rev $602.6M

FY25

Rev $912.9M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$912.9M	52%	0%	$0	$445.1M	15%
FY 2024	$602.6M	52%	0%	$0	$785.7M	15%
FY 2023	$344.0M	52%	0%	$0	$290.0M	15%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ARX)

✓Walkthrough of ARX's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

ARX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +52.34%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $19.85H $19.85L $19.81C $19.82VOL 573.2K

RES: $21.03SUP: $8.93SMA50: $19.76SMA200: $14.99

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ARX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ARX Butterfly Map → + Track ARX →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +51.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ARX today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ARX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ARX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ARX)

Financials Rank #731 of 1096 ⚔️ BWIN vs ARX Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (ARX vs. BWIN, CRVL, NP, HGTY)

Industry: Specialty Insurers (33 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Accelerant Holdings (Class A) (ARX) ranks #731 by composite RQD confidence (53/100, grade D+) and #304 by equity capitalization ($4.30B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, HGTY leads on earnings valuation at 37.5x trailing P/E, while HGTY leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 67.4% ROIC and — gross margin. HGTY currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with ARX at 53/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ARX ACTIVE Accelerant Holdings (Class A)	D+	53/100	—	—	—	+0.05%	$4.30B	Benchmark Subject
BWIN The Baldwin Insurance Group Inc.	D	46/100	—	—	3.6%	-0.38%	$4.44B	/bwin-vs-arx →
CRVL CorVel Corp.	C	64/100	37.6x	—	29.4%	+0.75%	$4.15B	/crvl-vs-arx →
NP Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A)	D+	58/100	106.4x	—	28.2%	-2.27%	$3.98B	/np-vs-arx →
HGTY Hagerty Inc. (Class A)	B-	71/100	37.5x	—	67.4%	+0.13%	$5.60B	/hgty-vs-arx →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001997350

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Accelerant Holdings (Class A) (ARX) reported GAAP revenue of $912.9M (+51.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $602.6M , and +165.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $445.1M, and free cash flow of $445.1M (-43.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, ARX closed FY2025 with $8.26B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$912.9M	$0	$445.1M	$445.1M	$8.26B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$602.6M	$0	$785.7M	$785.7M	$6.09B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$344.0M	$0	$290.0M	$290.0M	—	—

3. ARX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ARX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Accelerant Holdings (Class A) (NYSE: ARX) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $19.82 (+0.05% 1D, market cap $4.30B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, ARX ranks #731 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ARX compare to BWIN and CRVL in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Specialty Insurers), ARX carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, BWIN (The Baldwin Insurance Group Inc.) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 3.6%, cap $4.44B) and CRVL (CorVel Corp.) posts a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 37.6x, ROIC 29.4%, cap $4.15B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HGTY leads on earnings multiple (37.5x) while HGTY leads on capital efficiency (67.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARX?

Per ARX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001997350), Accelerant Holdings (Class A) generated $912.9M in revenue (+51.5% YoY), $0 in net income, and $445.1M in free cash flow against $8.26B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ARX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ARX last traded at $19.82 (+0.05% on volume of 582,722 shares), positioning the stock +0.30% above its 50-day simple moving average ($19.76) and +32.22% above its 200-day simple moving average ($14.99). Across its 52-week range of $9.18 to $19.90, ARX sits at the 99.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 66.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±1.8% ($19.46 to $20.18).

ARX Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Accelerant Holdings (Class A) (ARX)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), ARX converted $912.9M of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $445.1M in free cash flow (48.8% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: ARX RQD Cockpit ARX 12M Forecast ARX Earnings & Move ARX Dividends & DRIP ARX Insiders & 13F ARX Whale Options ARX Profit Sankey ARX News & Why