Why AROW Stock advanced +1.67% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$38.67 +1.67% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $38.71

Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 66/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $716.2M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $38.71 (+0.11%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 0.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 66/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.0% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510066
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk B
Cash (11)Whales (11)SEC (13)Macro (16)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.6% Base Target
$47 Bull$40 Base$31 Bear
📬 FREE AROW RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AROW)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (66/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AROW SCORES 66/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 73% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 56.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-9 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
58
Grade C$36.38+1.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
61
Grade C$36.85+4.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
63
Grade C+$38.37+0.8% Next Q
Current
66
Grade C+$38.67+1.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (58) → C+ (66)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the AROW Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 66/100 (C+) score, AROW faces multiple-compression risk if 16.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($37.85) or 200D SMA ($36.94) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($40.06) toward Bear Floor ($31.25).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AROW• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AROW Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why AROW Stock advanced +1.67% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW) advanced +1.67% to $38.67, trading at 73% of its 52-week range ($28 – $42.7). Solid steady margins (10% return on capital), mixed timing at 16x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 73% of its 52-week range ($28 – $42.7) with RSI-14 at 56.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±4.8% around $38.67 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C+ (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $36.2M annual free cash flow.
Live AROW Headlines & Catalysts
RISK WATCHYahoo • 3d ago
Arrow Financial: Q3 Earnings Snapshot

(AROW) on Thursday reported third-quarter profit of $5.The bank, based in Glens Falls, New York, said it had earnings of 31 cents per share.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (AROW Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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AROW // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +4.94%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-10-30O $39.09H $39.18L $38.06C $38.67VOL 73.5K
RES: $37.93SUP: $35.25SMA50: $37.85SMA200: $36.94
$43.51$40.14$36.77$33.40$30.02RES $37.93SUP $35.25$38.672026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AROW Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
9.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AROW today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AROW. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AROW today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AROW)

Financials Rank #290 of 1096 ⚔️ PFIS vs AROW Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (AROW vs. PFIS, CWBC, MSBI, BCAL)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW) ranks #290 by composite RQD confidence (66/100, grade C+) and #619 by equity capitalization ($716.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BCAL leads on earnings valuation at 10.9x trailing P/E, while PFIS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.4% ROIC and — gross margin. PFIS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with AROW at 66/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AROW ACTIVE
Arrow Financial Corporation
C+ 66/100 16.3x — 10.2% +1.67% $716.2M Benchmark Subject
PFIS
Peoples Financial Services Corp.
C+ 67/100 12.1x — 11.4% +0.37% $715.3M /pfis-vs-arow →
CWBC
Community West Bancshares
C- 59/100 18.6x — 9.3% +0.97% $708.1M /cwbc-vs-arow →
MSBI
Midland States Bancorp Inc.
D 48/100 — — -22.0% -1.23% $702.0M /msbi-vs-arow →
BCAL
California BanCorp
C 65/100 10.9x — 10.9% -0.46% $689.3M /bcal-vs-arow →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000717538

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $44.0M, operating cash flow of $41.3M, and free cash flow of $36.2M (+25.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, AROW closed FY2025 with $4.45B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $0 $44.0M $41.3M $36.2M $4.45B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $0 $29.7M $34.5M $28.9M $4.31B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $0 $30.1M $20.6M $20.6M — —

3. AROW Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AROW stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Arrow Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: AROW) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 66/100 at a spot price of $38.67 (+1.67% 1D, market cap $716.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, AROW ranks #290 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AROW compare to PFIS and CWBC in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), AROW carries a Roarable C+ (66/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.2%. By comparison, PFIS (Peoples Financial Services Corp.) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 12.1x, ROIC 11.4%, cap $715.3M) and CWBC (Community West Bancshares) posts a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 18.6x, ROIC 9.3%, cap $708.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, BCAL leads on earnings multiple (10.9x) while PFIS leads on capital efficiency (11.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AROW?

Per AROW's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000717538), Arrow Financial Corporation generated $0 in revenue, $44.0M in net income, and $36.2M in free cash flow against $4.45B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AROW trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AROW last traded at $38.67 (+1.67% on volume of 80,590 shares), positioning the stock +2.17% above its 50-day simple moving average ($37.85) and +4.68% above its 200-day simple moving average ($36.94). Across its 52-week range of $28.00 to $42.70, AROW sits at the 72.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 56.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.8% ($36.81 to $40.53).

AROW Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Why is AROW stock moving today?

Why AROW Stock advanced +1.67% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid steady margins (10% return on capital), mixed timing at 16x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

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