Stock Ratings / Financials / AROW / financials

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Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$38.67 +1.67% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $38.71

Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 66/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 66/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $716.2M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $38.71 (+0.11%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 0.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 66/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.0% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AROW)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (66/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY AROW SCORES 66/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 73% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 56.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-9 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$36.38+1.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$36.85+4.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$38.37+0.8% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$38.67+1.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (58) → C+ (66)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the AROW Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 66/100 (C+) score, AROW faces multiple-compression risk if 16.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($37.85) or 200D SMA ($36.94) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($40.06) toward Bear Floor ($31.25).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AROW• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “AROW Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 66%NO 34%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How AROW Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$36.2M (0.9% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $4.00B

FY24

Rev $4.00B

FY25

Rev $4.00B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$4.00B	52%	0%	$44.0M	$36.2M	10.2%
FY 2024	$4.00B	52%	0%	$29.7M	$28.9M	10.2%
FY 2023	$4.00B	52%	0%	$30.1M	$20.6M	10.2%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AROW)

✓Walkthrough of AROW's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

AROW // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +4.94%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-10-30O $39.09H $39.18L $38.06C $38.67VOL 73.5K

RES: $37.93SUP: $35.25SMA50: $37.85SMA200: $36.94

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AROW Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AROW Butterfly Map → + Track AROW →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

9.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AROW today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AROW. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AROW today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AROW)

Financials Rank #290 of 1096 ⚔️ PFIS vs AROW Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (AROW vs. PFIS, CWBC, MSBI, BCAL)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW) ranks #290 by composite RQD confidence (66/100, grade C+) and #619 by equity capitalization ($716.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BCAL leads on earnings valuation at 10.9x trailing P/E, while PFIS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.4% ROIC and — gross margin. PFIS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with AROW at 66/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
AROW ACTIVE Arrow Financial Corporation	C+	66/100	16.3x	—	10.2%	+1.67%	$716.2M	Benchmark Subject
PFIS Peoples Financial Services Corp.	C+	67/100	12.1x	—	11.4%	+0.37%	$715.3M	/pfis-vs-arow →
CWBC Community West Bancshares	C-	59/100	18.6x	—	9.3%	+0.97%	$708.1M	/cwbc-vs-arow →
MSBI Midland States Bancorp Inc.	D	48/100	—	—	-22.0%	-1.23%	$702.0M	/msbi-vs-arow →
BCAL California BanCorp	C	65/100	10.9x	—	10.9%	-0.46%	$689.3M	/bcal-vs-arow →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000717538

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $44.0M, operating cash flow of $41.3M, and free cash flow of $36.2M (+25.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, AROW closed FY2025 with $4.45B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$44.0M	$41.3M	$36.2M	$4.45B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$29.7M	$34.5M	$28.9M	$4.31B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$30.1M	$20.6M	$20.6M	—	—

3. AROW Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AROW stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Arrow Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: AROW) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 66/100 at a spot price of $38.67 (+1.67% 1D, market cap $716.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, AROW ranks #290 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AROW compare to PFIS and CWBC in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), AROW carries a Roarable C+ (66/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.2%. By comparison, PFIS (Peoples Financial Services Corp.) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 12.1x, ROIC 11.4%, cap $715.3M) and CWBC (Community West Bancshares) posts a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 18.6x, ROIC 9.3%, cap $708.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, BCAL leads on earnings multiple (10.9x) while PFIS leads on capital efficiency (11.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AROW?

Per AROW's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000717538), Arrow Financial Corporation generated $0 in revenue, $44.0M in net income, and $36.2M in free cash flow against $4.45B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AROW trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AROW last traded at $38.67 (+1.67% on volume of 80,590 shares), positioning the stock +2.17% above its 50-day simple moving average ($37.85) and +4.68% above its 200-day simple moving average ($36.94). Across its 52-week range of $28.00 to $42.70, AROW sits at the 72.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 56.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.8% ($36.81 to $40.53).

AROW Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), AROW converted $4.0B of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $36.2M in free cash flow (0.9% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: AROW RQD Cockpit AROW 12M Forecast AROW Earnings & Move AROW Dividends & DRIP AROW Insiders & 13F AROW Whale Options AROW Profit Sankey AROW News & Why