Stock Ratings / Financials / AROW / earnings

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Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±4.8% Move

$38.67 +1.67% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $38.71

Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 66/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 66/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $716.2M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $38.71 (+0.11%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 0.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 66/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.0% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AROW)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (66/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY AROW SCORES 66/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 73% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 56.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-9 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$36.38+1.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$36.85+4.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$38.37+0.8% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$38.67+1.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (58) → C+ (66)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the AROW Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 66/100 (C+) score, AROW faces multiple-compression risk if 16.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($37.85) or 200D SMA ($36.94) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($40.06) toward Bear Floor ($31.25).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AROW• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “AROW Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 66%NO 34%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±4.8% Swing Band

±$1.86 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

AROW Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 66/100

Trailing EPS: $2.37 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (66/100)Model Risk Weight (34/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$0	$44.0M	$36.2M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$0	$29.7M	$28.9M	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$0	$30.1M	$20.6M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating AROW & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on AROW
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

AROW // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +4.94%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-10-30O $39.09H $39.18L $38.06C $38.67VOL 73.5K

RES: $37.93SUP: $35.25SMA50: $37.85SMA200: $36.94

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AROW Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AROW Butterfly Map → + Track AROW →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

9.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AROW today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AROW. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AROW today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AROW)

Financials Rank #290 of 1096 ⚔️ PFIS vs AROW Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (AROW vs. PFIS, CWBC, MSBI, BCAL)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW) ranks #290 by composite RQD confidence (66/100, grade C+) and #619 by equity capitalization ($716.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BCAL leads on earnings valuation at 10.9x trailing P/E, while PFIS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.4% ROIC and — gross margin. PFIS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with AROW at 66/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
AROW ACTIVE Arrow Financial Corporation	C+	66/100	16.3x	—	10.2%	+1.67%	$716.2M	Benchmark Subject
PFIS Peoples Financial Services Corp.	C+	67/100	12.1x	—	11.4%	+0.37%	$715.3M	/pfis-vs-arow →
CWBC Community West Bancshares	C-	59/100	18.6x	—	9.3%	+0.97%	$708.1M	/cwbc-vs-arow →
MSBI Midland States Bancorp Inc.	D	48/100	—	—	-22.0%	-1.23%	$702.0M	/msbi-vs-arow →
BCAL California BanCorp	C	65/100	10.9x	—	10.9%	-0.46%	$689.3M	/bcal-vs-arow →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000717538

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $44.0M, operating cash flow of $41.3M, and free cash flow of $36.2M (+25.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, AROW closed FY2025 with $4.45B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$44.0M	$41.3M	$36.2M	$4.45B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$29.7M	$34.5M	$28.9M	$4.31B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$30.1M	$20.6M	$20.6M	—	—

3. AROW Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AROW stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Arrow Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: AROW) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 66/100 at a spot price of $38.67 (+1.67% 1D, market cap $716.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, AROW ranks #290 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AROW compare to PFIS and CWBC in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), AROW carries a Roarable C+ (66/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.2%. By comparison, PFIS (Peoples Financial Services Corp.) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 12.1x, ROIC 11.4%, cap $715.3M) and CWBC (Community West Bancshares) posts a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 18.6x, ROIC 9.3%, cap $708.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, BCAL leads on earnings multiple (10.9x) while PFIS leads on capital efficiency (11.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AROW?

Per AROW's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000717538), Arrow Financial Corporation generated $0 in revenue, $44.0M in net income, and $36.2M in free cash flow against $4.45B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AROW trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AROW last traded at $38.67 (+1.67% on volume of 80,590 shares), positioning the stock +2.17% above its 50-day simple moving average ($37.85) and +4.68% above its 200-day simple moving average ($36.94). Across its 52-week range of $28.00 to $42.70, AROW sits at the 72.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 56.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.8% ($36.81 to $40.53).

AROW Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is AROW's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is AROW stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±4.8% event move for AROW, spanning a range between $36.81 and $40.53.

Direct Sub-Reports: AROW RQD Cockpit AROW 12M Forecast AROW Earnings & Move AROW Dividends & DRIP AROW Insiders & 13F AROW Whale Options AROW Profit Sankey AROW News & Why