Stock Ratings / Health Care / ARDX / options

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Ardelyx Inc. (ARDX) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$3.10 0.00% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.09

Ardelyx Inc. (ARDX) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 35/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (35/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $772.5M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.09 (-0.19%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (35/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-10.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ARDX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.1%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (35/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ARDX SCORES 35/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+10/20 pts (29% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 3% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 37.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+9/20 pts (26% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±9.1% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$3.28-5.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$3.09-0.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$3.08+0.6% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$3.10-8.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (43) → D- (35)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ARDX Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ARDX currently carries a cautious 35/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($3.43) and Max Pain ($3.26) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $8.82.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ARDX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ARDX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 35%NO 65%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±9.1%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (ARDX)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for ARDX.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ARDX)

✓Walkthrough of ARDX's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

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ARDX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -51.03%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-10-30O $3.09H $3.12L $2.96C $3.10VOL 3.63M

RES: $2.43SUP: $2.69SMA50: $3.43SMA200: $5.33

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ARDX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ARDX Butterfly Map → + Track ARDX →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +22.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ARDX today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ARDX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ARDX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ARDX)

Health Care Rank #816 of 1016 ⚔️ COLL vs ARDX Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (ARDX vs. COLL, HELP, ANNX, AVBP)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ardelyx Inc. (ARDX) ranks #816 by composite RQD confidence (35/100, grade D-) and #391 by equity capitalization ($772.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, COLL leads on earnings valuation at 12.4x trailing P/E, while COLL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and 59.3% gross margin. COLL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with ARDX at 35/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ARDX ACTIVE Ardelyx Inc.	D-	35/100	—	90.3%	-32.7%	0.00%	$772.5M	Benchmark Subject
COLL Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc.	B	72/100	12.4x	59.3%	85.0%	+3.44%	$782.3M	/coll-vs-ardx →
HELP Helus Pharma Inc.	D	49/100	—	—	—	-1.83%	$782.5M	/help-vs-ardx →
ANNX Annexon Inc.	D-	40/100	—	—	-35.0%	-0.74%	$760.2M	/annx-vs-ardx →
AVBP ArriVent BioPharma Inc.	D-	35/100	—	—	-35.0%	+1.40%	$786.5M	/avbp-vs-ardx →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001437402

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Ardelyx Inc. (ARDX) reported GAAP revenue of $407.3M (+22.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $333.6M , and +227.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$62.0M, operating cash flow of -$42.5M, and free cash flow of -$44.0M (+4.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, ARDX closed FY2025 with $501.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$407.3M	-$62.0M	-$42.5M	-$44.0M	$501.6M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$333.6M	-$39.0M	-$44.8M	-$45.8M	$435.8M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$124.5M	-$66.0M	-$89.7M	-$89.7M	—	—

3. ARDX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ARDX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Ardelyx Inc. (NASDAQ: ARDX) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 35/100 at a spot price of $3.10 (0.00% 1D, market cap $772.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, ARDX ranks #816 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ARDX compare to COLL and HELP in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), ARDX carries a Roarable D- (35/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 90.3%, and ROIC of -32.7%. By comparison, COLL (Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc.) holds a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 12.4x, ROIC 85.0%, cap $782.3M) and HELP (Helus Pharma Inc.) posts a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $782.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, COLL leads on earnings multiple (12.4x) while COLL leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARDX?

Per ARDX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001437402), Ardelyx Inc. generated $407.3M in revenue (+22.1% YoY), -$62.0M in net income, and -$44.0M in free cash flow against $501.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ARDX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ARDX last traded at $3.10 (0.00% on volume of 2,550,094 shares), positioning the stock -9.62% below its 50-day simple moving average ($3.43) and -41.84% below its 200-day simple moving average ($5.33). Across its 52-week range of $2.96 to $8.40, ARDX sits at the 2.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 37.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.1% ($2.82 to $3.38).

ARDX Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is ARDX's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for ARDX.

Direct Sub-Reports: ARDX RQD Cockpit ARDX 12M Forecast ARDX Earnings & Move ARDX Dividends & DRIP ARDX Insiders & 13F ARDX Whale Options ARDX Profit Sankey ARDX News & Why